It's been a pretty great week for Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (NYSE:RYAM) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$7.48 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. Rayonier Advanced Materials beat expectations by 4.2% with revenues of US$419m. It also surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected statutory profit of US$0.17 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Rayonier Advanced Materials

Following the latest results, Rayonier Advanced Materials' three analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.65b in 2024. This would be a modest 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 40% to US$0.74. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.62b and losses of US$0.34 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

Despite expectations of heavier losses next year,the analysts have lifted their price target 29% to US$9.00, perhaps implying these losses are not expected to be recurring over the long term.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Rayonier Advanced Materials' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Rayonier Advanced Materials is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.