Sell Stocks If a Trump Win Drives a Rally, Citi Strategists Say

Sagarika Jaisinghani
2 min read

In This Article:

(Bloomberg) -- US stocks may be rallying ahead of a potential victory for Donald Trump in next week’s US election, but for strategists at Citigroup Inc., a clean sweep for the Republican party will be a signal to sell.

Most Read from Bloomberg

A Trump win is generally seen as good news for stocks because his proposals to lower corporate taxes would likely benefit company earnings. The Citi strategists argue, however, that the “near-euphoric sentiment” that’s driving the S&P 500 Index toward a sixth straight month of gains is leaving it ripe for a pullback.

“Given the fundamental uncertainty we expect in a Trump + red sweep scenario, we are inclined to lighten into any post-election rally,” Citi strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note dated Oct. 29.

The gains that have pushed the benchmark index to a record high have largely been driven by economic growth and corporate earnings, though a recent shift in betting markets in favor of a victory for Trump has also helped. Vice President Kamala Harris’s policies to potentially hike taxes have been viewed as relatively more bearish for stocks. Most major polls show the two candidates in a dead heat.

The most optimistic scenario for stocks has been touted as a Republican sweep — where a White House victory for Trump is accompanied by majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Chronert, however, maintains the view that both candidates’ policies would be incrementally negative for equity fundamentals. The strategist said the S&P 500 looks “fully valued” at current levels. Any selloff resulting from a Harris victory alongside a split Congress would be a buying opportunity, he said.

Neither campaign responded immediately to Bloomberg’s request for comment outside of regular working hours in Washington DC.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

?2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Recommended Stories