Shake Shack IPO: Like an Internet stock, only with burgers

For Shake Shack, and for those who want to invest in Shake Shack, the wait for its IPO is almost over.

The New York-based burger chain has provided more details on its pending initial offering, saying Tuesday that the Class A stock it's issuing, up to 5.75 million shares including the over-allotment option, probably will be priced between $14 and $16 a share, raising as much as $92 million.

It's highly likely that will be only the beginning. Because of the anticipation surrounding Shake Shack -- with it being a well-known "better burger" name founded in New York by restaurant entrepreneur Danny Meyer -- it may in fact trade well above that quickly. And considering that other new restaurants of the fast-casual type mostly have been scooped up by investors, including another burger chain, California's Habit Restaurants (HABT), Shake Shack has the makings of a very sought-after stock.

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The valuation has the potential to go toward the astronomical side on this one. Here's my best guess of how it could trade at $28 to $30 a share rapidly:

--A group of fast-casual restaurants Yahoo Finance tracks have forward price-to-earnings ratios of around 40. The Habit, to which Shake Shack will be most closely compared, has a P/E of 208, according to FactSet. Habit is larger than Shake Shack in terms of restaurant count and revenue, and it does have loftier growth plans, but it's not clear why Shake Shack would require a significantly inferior profit multiple.

We only have the backward earnings rather than the forward estimate, so I can't make a direct comparison, but a 200 P/E on Shake Shack's 2013 profit of $5.4 million, or 15 cents a share based on what will be the diluted share count, would produce a price of $30. Yes, that's a high P/E. However, on Wall Street, a high P/E often isn't a problem with new stocks. That can't be overstressed here.

What also can't be overstressed is that, even if Shake Shack does surge, that doesn't mean it will last. Habit started trading in November at $30, well above its $18 pricing. Eventually, it traded as high as $44.20. Now it's dropped all the way back to around $30, where it started.

--Bloomberg reported in September that the goal was a $1 billion valuation (trading at $30, it would be around $1.1 billion). After the offering (and over-allotment), 12 million shares would be outstanding, which includes those from both the company and from insiders. Another 24.3 million Class A shares are being reserved for possible future issuance, for almost 36.3 million diluted shares in total. At a $16 pricing, that would imply a company worth $580 million. To reach $1 billion, it only has to get to $28 and change.