Strong dollar delivers blow to FOMC officials

FOMC officials confirmed what many investors already knew: The big gains in the dollar (UUP) over the past three months could become a big problem for the U.S. economic recovery. Toss in weaker global economic growth, reiterated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this week, and policymakers may need to come up with a plan B.

In an earlier interview with Yahoo Finance, Ian Lyngen of CRT Capital said, “The dollar has been on a very strong run. We have divergences between monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe," says Lyngen." So the dollar is becoming a higher-yielding currency relative to the G3 and I think that is ultimately going to result in some downward pressure on inflation here in the U.S., which, ironically, may keep the Fed’s first hike at bay longer than what we might have thought.”

Annual inflation is running at a rate of 1.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is likely to remain tame, especially as commodity prices continue to drop. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Indexed Trust (GSG), which tracks a broad range of commodities, is down over 13% since July, a move Lyngen attributes to poor economic performance in areas such as the euro zone.

“There is a concern that the global economy as a whole outside of the U.S. is slowing down a bit on concerns in China, certainly concerns in Europe and that is going to be a demand issue for global crude and commodities more broadly.”

Oil is trading around $85 a barrel, levels not seen 2012.

A stronger dollar coupled with weaker global economic growth has many investors guestimating a rate hike by the Federal Reserve will likely take place in late 2015 or perhaps not at all.

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