Tesla robotaxi event: Analysts weigh in on what to expect from CEO Elon Musk's big moment

Updated Thu, Oct 10, 2024, 9:47 AM 5 min read

While most don’t expect a fully functional robotaxi that can be deployed right away, it’s what CEO Elon Musk and Tesla can do to paint a picture of autonomous self-driving that the company envisions for the next five or 10 years down the road that matters. Possible leaks have already surfaced suggesting Tesla may strike a robo-delivery deal with DoorDash, for instance. (Yahoo Finance could not verify those reports.)

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, who named Tesla his “top pick” in the autos space, has nonetheless advised clients to “keep expectations well managed” for the event.

What will most likely be on display is a demonstration of the latest iteration of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and a demonstration of a fully autonomous "cybercab" in a closed or semi-closed course, Jonas wrote last month. But in a more recent note last week, Jonas said investors may hear more about how those cybercabs, or robotaxis, will be deployed.

A demonstration of Tesla's Full Self-Driving FSD Supervised (credit: Tesla YouTube channel) — A demonstration of Tesla's Full Self-Driving Supervised. (Tesla YouTube channel) · Tesla YouTube channel

“It is our expectation that Tesla will offer a 'dual' approach with respect to autonomous ridesharing: (1) the fully autonomous app-based cybercab and (2) a 'supervised' autonomous/FSD rideshare service. We think the latter of these may get the most attention or have the greatest room to surprise investors, at least near term,” Jonas said.

While the cybercab — a vehicle envisioned as one without a steering wheel or pedals — may be the natural fit for a robotaxi, Jonas believes it is the preexisting fleet of Teslas out on the road that, when combined with FSD and Tesla’s upcoming rideshare mobility app, will allow owners of those Tesla EVs to put those vehicles on Tesla’s rideshare service. The true game changer would be unlocking the potential of those vehicles, he said.

A Tesla deal with DoorDash to deliver restaurant takeout could easily be envisioned as part of this service.

Jonas and Morgan Stanley have an Overweight rating and a $310 price target on Tesla heading into the event.

Other analysts believe that the cybercab unveiled could actually be the model or basis for a new Tesla passenger vehicle, the long-promised “next-gen” vehicle.

“For Robotaxi Day on Oct. 10, we expect an unveiling of the ‘CyberCab’ at the venue, [and] some type of robotaxi demo … Moreover, Tesla should unveil the new lower cost vehicle slated for SOP [start of production] next year (“Model 2” or cheaper/smaller Model 3 variant),” Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu wrote in a note.

Yu is referring to the sub-$30K next-gen EV Tesla confirmed would be coming later this year, one that would open up new buyers to the Tesla universe.

Tesla's product roadmap from 2024 shareholder meeting presentation (credit: Tesla) — Tesla's product roadmap from 2024 shareholder meeting presentation (Tesla) · Tesla

Yu, who has a Buy rating and a $295 price target on Tesla, is also advising clients to be “tactically cautious” on the event, as the bar for wowing the Street is high and the likelihood of a “sell the news” type of reaction is possible.

Garrett Nelson of CFRA also believes that a cheaper Tesla EV will be coming alongside the cybercab. While he thinks Tesla plans to create a robotaxi fleet harnessing the cybercab and other Tesla EVs powered by FSD software, he is skeptical of how realistic timing will be for this venture.

“We think this [robotaxi fleet] is still several years away and numerous technological hurdles, safety tests, and regulatory approvals are still standing in the way,” Nelson wrote last week.

Tesla's preview of the ride-hailing feature coming to Tesla's App (credit: Tesla) — Tesla's preview of the ride-hailing feature coming to Tesla's App. (Tesla) · Tesla

Nelson believes Tesla “remains far from achieving a level of autonomy” that would include capabilities like performing all safety-critical driving functions and monitoring road conditions for an entire trip.

Nelson, who has a Hold rating and $240 price target on Tesla, believes the key question for Tesla’s bull case is whether or not investors will give the company a pass on near- and intermediate-term issues, such as softer EV sales, and continue to focus more on longer-term opportunities like autonomous driving and robotaxi deployment.

Finally, in a note published late last week, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes Thursday’s event will put Tesla’s long-term vision on full display.

While Ives and other analysts believe Tesla will showcase the cybercab, its next-gen platform, and FSD and AI updates, Ives predicts Musk will also address the “near-term pain points” seen by investors for self-driving and how the company will overcome them.

Ives added that Tesla, for which Wedbush has an Outperform rating and bullish $300 price target, is going through another transformation not seen since the company's volume Model 3 and Y release, with the next phase focused on AI, FSD, and supercomputing. He believes this phase represents $1 trillion in value alone.

“We firmly believe that Tesla remains a robotics/AI play in the future rather than just an EV vendor,” Ives said. “We believe this is a pivotal time for Tesla as the company prepares to release its years of Robotaxi R&D shadowed behind the curtains, while Musk & Co. lay out the company’s vision for the future.”