Many prospective homebuyers are hoping the Fed will deliver further relief from high mortgage rates this week.

But even after Wednesday’s expected rate cut, they could be left disappointed.

Average 30-year mortgage rates have dropped more than a full percentage point since early May to 6.2%, ahead of what’s expected to be the Fed's first cut to its benchmark interest rate in more than four years. That steady decline means mortgage rates aren’t likely to fall much further immediately after the Fed’s move, housing market experts say.

“We’ve seen a lot of the benefits of the rate cut in the form of lower rates already,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “It’s not about what the Fed does in September, it’s what they say about the future that’s going to provide ongoing rate declines.”

The Fed has signaled its intent to begin cutting rates to help jumpstart economic growth, but it’s been facing mixed economic data that calls into question just how quickly and deeply rates need to fall in the months ahead. Inflation broadly moderated in August but remained stubborn in certain subcategories, including housing. And while the US added fewer jobs than expected last month, wage growth — which closely tracks inflation — was strong.

Traders see 65% odds of larger 50 basis point rate at Wednesday’s meeting, with a 35% chance of a 25 basis point drop, according to CME FedWatch data. And they’re expecting several subsequent rate cuts when the Fed meets in November and December, leaving the benchmark interest rate about 100 basis points lower than the current 5.25% to 5.5% level by the end of the year.

Read more: How the Federal Reserve rate decision affects mortgage rates

Chen Zhao, who leads economics research at Redfin, said that mortgage rates could even rise slightly in the coming months — a counterintuitive outcome to many consumers — if the Fed ends up cutting more slowly than expected.

“There’s definitely ample risk for the Fed to really disappoint here and for mortgage rates to move up a little bit from where they are now,” Zhao said.

The Fed’s last pre-pandemic rate-cutting cycle followed a similar pattern. Average mortgage rates peaked at nearly 5% in late 2018, but had fallen to 3.75% by the time the Fed began dropping rates in July 2019. They remained between 3.5% and 3.8% for the rest of the year, despite two more 25 basis point cuts.

If the Fed’s move is already reflected in current mortgage rates, why are so many buyers expecting bigger drops to come? Kelly Shue, a professor of finance at the Yale School of Management, has researched this common misconception.