After a rough summer, stocks around the world have regained some ground. But third-quarter data could splash cold water on any positive expectations investors may have.

Since the start of October, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has gained about 5%. The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS), which gave back the 60% rally it enjoyed in the first 6 months of the year, is now up nearly 7% this month.

However, Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Stifel Nicolaus’ Washington Crossing Advisors, is not optimistic about how the third quarter’s final numbers will look when they are tallied.

“It’s going to be a disappointing quarter,” warns Morganlander, who expects revenues to remain flat or decline by as much as 4% compared to the third-quarter of 2014. He blames tepid global growth, which he forecasts at 2% to 2.5% on an annualized basis, for what he anticipates as a lackluster quarter. That will take its toll on the markets, he predicted.

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“When it comes to the equity markets in general, we don't think that there will be a year-end rally like everyone's expecting,” said Morganlander. “We think it'll be pretty much flat to down from here on.”

A slowdown in China and the emerging markets will also keep the Fed from raising interest rates until the first quarter of 2016, he said, but it will happen as U.S. growth comes in at a tame 2% to 2.5% range. Morganlander doesn’t expect equity returns to be any more than a couple of percentage points above that, but he would still be overweight stocks in general.

“Total return for the stock market is roughly going to be 4% to 6% here in the United States,” he said. “When it comes to the leaders we believe it's going to be staples as well as health care. You want to stay with the ‘Steady Eddies’ going into 2016 – the most boring blue chip of the blue.”

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