The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Enphase Energy's 39 analysts is for revenues of US$1.8b in 2025, which would reflect a huge 44% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to shoot up 437% to US$2.44. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.96 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a considerable drop in earnings per share numbers as well.

See our latest analysis for Enphase Energy

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 15% to US$106.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Enphase Energy's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 34% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 24% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 19% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Enphase Energy is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. With a serious cut to next year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of Enphase Energy.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Enphase Energy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.