We Think Gamma Communications' (LON:GAMA) Healthy Earnings Might Be Conservative

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Shareholders appeared to be happy with Gamma Communications plc's (LON:GAMA) solid earnings report last week. This reaction by the market reaction is understandable when looking at headline profits and we have found some further encouraging factors.

Check out our latest analysis for Gamma Communications

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Zooming In On Gamma Communications' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to June 2024, Gamma Communications had an accrual ratio of -0.12. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of UK£83m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of UK£56.4m. Gamma Communications shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Gamma Communications' profit was reduced by unusual items worth UK£16m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Gamma Communications doesn't see those unusual expenses repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.