Donald Trump is promising that if voters return him to Washington in 2025, he will reignite a key feature of his previous term: trade wars.

The centerpiece of his plan is a proposal for a system of "universal baseline tariffs" of at least 10% on most foreign products. It would be a marked escalation of tactics, even for a figure who once likened himself "tariff man."

How could such a move impact an economy trying to avoid a recession? Yahoo Finance reached out to a series of trade experts — including officials who worked in previous Republican and Democratic administrations — for an early gauge of what a Trump trade war version 2.0 might mean for 2025 or perhaps even earlier.

Their assessments of the economic dislocations varied, but an area of agreement was that a second Trump administration's approach to trade could feel very different from 2017-2021.

"This 10% tariff across the board is really much more of an anti-trade kind of thing," said Richard Baldwin of the IMD Business School. He contrasted the possible global approach to come with Trump's previous tariffs that often aimed at specific things — from China to certain industries like steel.

"He just doesn't like trade," added Baldwin, who previously served on George H.W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisors.

Trump has also maintained a continual focus on the issue. He brings it up regularly on the campaign trail, with voting set to get underway soon and the former president strongly favored to again be the GOP nominee.

"We will impose stiff penalties on China and all other nations as they abuse us," he said at a recent rally in New Hampshire.

An aim to reshape global trade

In discussing his 10% tariff plan, Trump has likened the idea to "a ring around the collar" of the US.

The contention, as he argued in an August Fox Business interview, is that his plan wouldn't be enough to hurt business "because it's not that much" but would be enough for the US Treasury to fund tax cuts to spur domestic manufacturing and offset any losses.

It remains to be seen if that math adds up. The Tax Foundation recently pegged the price tag of the 10% tariffs at $300 billion a year.

Trump has also announced a plan to rapidly decouple with China. His four-year effort would "phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods — everything from electronics to steel to pharmaceuticals."

Trump's doubling down on tariffs also comes after three years where President Biden has left many of Trump's tariffs alone, especially those aimed at China. Biden has even signaled that he could tighten some duties in the year ahead on aspects of the electric vehicle supply chain.

The key distinction from Biden's policy, noted William Alan Reinsch of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is that Biden is inclined to offer inducements as well as punishments, while Trump has signaled an approach that "is all stick, no carrot" when it comes to other nations.

Reinsch — who served in the Commerce Department during the Clinton administration — likened Trump's approach to "we're going to punish the foreigners, and then we hope that some of the Americans are going to step up and do something, which is really untargeted."

Differing views of the economic consequences

Reinsch also sees dire economic consequences that could lead to a global slowdown. "It would be a disaster economically, and it would be much worse than his previous four years," he said.

He added that volatility could be in evidence before the election.

"If it begins to look like in September and October that he might win, and he continues to say this is what he's going to do ... I think you're going to see a pre-election effect," he added.

Others, like Baldwin, see different impacts.

"Putting tariffs on steel actually distorts a particular market," he said of one of Trump's signature trade moves in 2018.

Even though a universal tariff would raise prices, he added, it could be less volatile for the global economy in that it raises prices more or less equally. "That's why I'm not as worried about the 10% as I was with this strategically incoherent, tactically incompetent [approach] that he was doing before," he says.

What's also up for debate is whether a renewed trade war would reignite inflation.

Many say yes, noting that new tariffs are inflationary as they raise the prices of imported goods. Economic research following Trump's term has found that his tariffs protected some jobs but at the cost of higher prices for everyone.

The defense from Trump and members of his potential 2025 team, notably former Trump trade representative Robert Lighthizer, is that Trump oversaw moderate inflation even amid the trade turmoil.

"They have a point in the sense that [tariffs often only have] a small but measurable impact on inflation," noted Claude Barfield, a former consultant to the US Trade Representative in the Reagan administration.

Barfield, who is currently a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, added that a spike in tariffs wouldn't mean a lack of economic pain. He said Trump and his team are trying to sell a "myth [that] this is money that comes to the US government, and we're not hurt; that's clearly not true."

A wild card: How will the world react?

Another key unknown is how the world would react to a new wave of Trump duties.

"Countries don't stand still, they're not going to accept that we do this and they don't do anything," said Barfield.

The fear is that trading partners, notably China but also America's allies, have leverage they elected not to use last time around. They could more directly target — or withhold entirely — key ingredients and parts that American manufacturers currently import and rely on to function.

"Our manufacturers get hit twice," said Reinsch. "They're going to get hit once because all the parts and components they're importing would become more expensive, and they're going to get hit the second time when their exports are going to be subject to retaliatory tariffs."

Lighthizer and others acknowledge that America's consumers and manufacturers could face disruptions with a return of Trump to office — but they argue that the long-run effects would be worth it.

"There's a group of people who think that consumption is the end. And my view is production is the end, and safe and happy communities are the end," he told the New York Times in a rare recent interview on trade. "You should be willing to pay a price for that."

'There'd be nobody around him to counter Lighthizer'

Adding to the uncertainty, there are also ample questions about what Trump could unilaterally impose in the face of a potentially skeptical Congress.

The candidate appears to be keen to try and seize new powers for himself, should he regain the presidency. Trump has said he'll be a "dictator" but only on "day one." Trade policy could be an area where he tests the boundaries of his power.

Barfield also noted that Trump is likely to have much less internal trade opposition this time around, with economic aides who espoused free trade long gone while others with a much more protectionist bent — notably Lighthizer — are still close to the former president.

"There'd be nobody around him to counter Lighthizer," Barfield said of a possible second Trump term.

In total, a return of Trump could inject new volatility into a global economy trying to avoid a recession in 2024 or 2025 that, with all things Trump, is amplified by the volatility of the candidate himself.

"Who knows what the guy will actually do," noted Baldwin.

Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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