Stocks are looking a wee bit higher as we roll into the meat of earnings season. Friday's rally took us right back into the wide trading range on the S&P 500 (^GSPC) but could not save us from another drop on the week. So far this year the index for grown ups is down 1.92%. That's meaningless noise to most traders but the long-term is made of nothing but moments. If you want to beat the market over a period of years you have to at least occasionally outperform every so often on a daily basis.

Consider Warren Buffett. The Oracle of Omaha is justifiably regarded as one of the great investors in history but is he putting less zip on the ball than Peyton Manning when it comes to stock picking lately? Still pretty good but obviously slipping. Before you lunge to his defense, as if the 3rd richest man on earth needs your protection, let's wait a couple days. By then we will have heard from Dow members (^DJI) IBM (IBM) and American Express (AXP), two of the bigger recent flops in the Oracle's portfolio of public shares commonly known as Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B).

IBM reports tonight and it's been one of the biggest losers of Buffett's career. Buffett's Berkshire owns 68 million or so shares at an average cost of over $170. That puts him down 10%. Worse still apparently Buffett and IBM itself are the only ones buying shares of late. Which makes sense given that CEO Ginni Rometty pulled all long term guidance last quarter. Not that it stopped IBM from increasing its buyback in the same announcement. Despite what figures to be around $7B in repurchases IBM is expected to show earnings dropping 11.5% tonight; even worse than the 10% revenue drop. For you buyback fans, that's not how its supposed to work. Buybacks are supposed to prop up EPS. IBM is Exhibit A in why that thinking is wrongheaded.

Amex is tomorrow after the bell. It's been a huge winner for Buffett over decades but not so hot lately, down 6% for the last year. Membership has privileges but it comes at a price.

Why do those companies matter? Well they make up 20% of the publicly traded holdings of the best investor ever. Buffett is great at Canadian donut buyouts like Tim Horton (THI.TO) and Burger King funding but over the last 52-weeks his top 4 holdings, more than half his portfolio, is flat. Berkshire on the other hand is up 30% in the same time period.

As they say, something's gotta give. Buffett will forever be Americans hard-ass financial uncle but if you buy alongside him on terms available to the public you've gotten killed. No matter how much he makes on trains eventually equity positions have to perform. Unless Amex and Coca-Cola (KO) pick up the pace Berkshire is looking a little expensive at these levels.