Why strong earnings and cash flow are key to navigating value traps

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The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has been riding a high lately, with the 5,800 mark clear in sight.

That leaves some investors feeling a bit anxious, as the current index level implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple that's a bit on the expensive side, historically.

“When I look at a P/E ratio today of 24 times, it makes me a little nervous," said Michaella Gallina on a recent episode of Stocks in Translation (see video above; listen below).

Gallina has a unique perspective on the market. She began her career on the buy side, shifted to the sell side, then leaped into corporate finance. She now serves as both the CFO of the consultancy group Wave HQ and as vice president of investor relations at H&R Block (HRB) — where she has transformed corporate communications, facilitating a 191% appreciation in stock price over her brief tenure at the tax preparation company.

It’s easy for investors to get caught up in the hype around high-growth unicorns, said Gallina, who cautions against chasing moonshots.

“There’s been a lot of hoopla around some [of the] unicorns that we're seeing with tremendous growth," she observed, adding, "If you want to beat the market, you need to play with what's in the game."

In general, that means focusing on companies that offer long-term stability and reliable performance, rather than chasing the latest trend or speculative opportunity. But the quest for value over growth is easier said than done.

Gallina noted that any market frenzy (and there's usually something) can lead investors to look for stocks that may be cheap but that have fundamental flaws, leaving them with little hope of ever going anywhere. These stocks are called value traps.

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get," wrote legendary investor Warren Buffett in a letter to partners in 1966. In Buffett and partner Charlie Munger's classic aphorism, it's far better to "buy a wonderful company at a fair price than an average company for cheap."

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 06: An H & R Block tax preparation office is seen on Flatbush Avenue on February 06, 2024 in the Prospect Heights neighborhood of Brooklyn borough in New York City. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
An H & R Block tax preparation office is seen on Flatbush Avenue on Feb. 6, 2024, in the Prospect Heights neighborhood of Brooklyn borough in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) · Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images

And in a market where over 80% of active global equity funds underperform their benchmarks, Gallina’s focus on value stocks becomes even more critical. Stock picking has never been easy, but in today’s market fueled by a bazooka of alternative and traditional media sources, it’s arguably harder than ever.

According to a comprehensive study by Morningstar of the stock-picking records of active managers over a decade, only 44% of professional stock-pickers beat their benchmarks. But more importantly — and dangerously — they struggled to size their positions effectively.