Why the U.S. will beat China: Portfolio manager

Chinese stocks have soared in 2015 but one portfolio manager says there’s a market that may outperform China in the next few years – the United States.

The rally in China’s equity market has been nothing short of astounding. While the Shanghai Composite index (000001.ss) has been volatile over the past month, it’s still up more than 40% this year and has more than doubled in the past 12 months.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) has managed to gain just 3% year-to-date and is up a relatively modest 8% since this time last year.

Yet Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Stifel Nicolaus’ Washington Crossing Advisors, expects the United States will outperform China in the next couple of years.

Though he anticipates the Chinese market to gain another 3% to 7% in the short run, “when you go out 12- 18 months, we would be much more cautious on China,” Morganlander said.

He is particularly concerned with China’s government’s heavy role in the economy and capital markets.

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It’s “a speculative bubble,” said Morganlander. “That doesn’t have a sustainable trajectory over the long run. If you’re a long-term investor looking 3 to 5 years out, then you should be cautious of that.”

Instead, he finds U.S. markets to be more attractive and less risky. “You will have less volatility within the United States – even with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates – than the Chinese market,” Morganlander said.

He isn’t entirely invested domestically. He is exposed to some emerging market stocks, but added, “We are underweight emerging markets.”

“Our bias is toward the United States. We are overweight U.S. equities.”

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