Analyst: 'Wonder Woman 1984' shows consumers eager to head back to the movies despite streaming threat
“Wonder Woman 1984” (T) is giving theater chains a much needed boost of confidence.
The sequel, which debuted in approximately 2,150 theater locations across the U.S. on Christmas day but received lackluster viewer reviews, grossed $16.7 million domestically in its opening weekend — far exceeding expectations.
Even with the downbeat reception, the results solidified the Amazon princess’ second adventure as the best performing film opening of the COVID-era — a tumultuous time period which saw even Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet” fall flat with viewers. The latter only generated about $9 million during its Labor Day weekend debut this year.
However, theater markets in New York City, Los Angeles and San Francisco still remain shut down as COVID-19 surges nationwide.
With operations still facing 50% capacity limits across the U.S., “we estimate the $16.7M opening for ‘WW84’ could actually equate to as much as $110M - $120M box office opening under normal circumstances,” B. Riley Securities Analyst Eric Wold wrote in a recent note shared with Yahoo Finance.
“The original ‘Wonder Woman’ released in 2017 generated $103M in opening weekend box office,” according to Wold. In fact, Warner Brothers has enough confidence in the franchise to begin fast-tracking a third installment, according to the media giant.
“We believe this helps support the thesis that when consumers are allowed back to theaters with attractive content, they will once again become moviegoers — with the industry having the potential to begin returning to normal in 2022,” the analyst added.
Warner Bros. released the superhero flick in theaters the same day it debuted on the studio’s fledging streaming platform HBO Max. Earlier this month, the studio shocked the media landscape by announcing plans to air all of its 2021 movies this way.
The hybrid release strategy was immediately met with scrutiny from major theater chains, with AMC (AMC) saying Warner was sacrificing profitability in order to “subsidize its HBO Max start up.”
Although specific HBO Max numbers have not yet been released, WarnerMedia said nearly half of all paying subscribers tuned in to watch the film on its first day — with the platform setting a single-day record for downloads of its mobile app.
But the successful turnout still doesn’t mean consumers wouldn’t have preferred the big screen under a different set of circumstances.
According to Wold, “the decision made by HBO Max subscribers to watch ‘WW84’ at home was more of a decision made for them by local theaters being closed and stay-at-home restrictions, as opposed to the preferred way to watch blockbuster films going forward.”
With so much on the line, “we believe Warner Bros. is more likely than not to reverse course and abandon this plan by mid-year — and either return to a more traditional distribution strategy or adopt one similar the Universal agreement entered into with both AMC and Cinemark Holdings (CNK),” the note added.
Alexandra is a producer & entertainment correspondent at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alliecanal8193
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