Back on October 9, we started to talk about Information Technology waking up after three months of technical basing by some in the sector. We wrote the following. "Technology was led by a few major semiconductors, including NVDA (+4%) and AVGO (+3%). NVDA has been tracing out a bullish continuous inverse head-and-shoulders, while AVGO has been forming a complex double bottom since the middle of June. Both are very close to completing these patterns and possibly breaking out to all-time highs. One concern about jumping back on the semi train is that we are not seeing other stocks completing bases and many are nowhere near highs. That can be rectified, but the strongest industry moves occur when the majority of stocks are participating." Little did we know how prophetic those last two sentences were and in no way did we expect the obliteration of some of the semis on October 15. ASML was destroyed, plunging over 16% after providing disappointing 2025 guidance. It was the company's worst day since the pandemic and, prior to that, during the IT wreck in 2002. KLAC plummeted 15%, and LRCX and AMAT both plunged 11%. Volume was huge and it felt almost like a capitulatory selloff. But those usually come after an extended selloff. Because the three largest semis held in there (NVDA, TSM, AVGO), losing only between 2.6% and 4.5%, the major semi ETFs (SOXX, SMH) fell only around 5%. While the major indices lost between 0.7% and 1.4%, NYSE breadth was only slightly negative at -157, as the selling was concentrated in Information Technology, Energy, Healthcare, and Industrials. In addition, NYSE advancing volume/declining volume was neutral at 50%. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Bristol-Myers Squibb discovers, develops, and markets drugs for various therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, cancer, and immune disorders. A key focus for Bristol is immuno-oncology, where the firm is a leader in drug development. Bristol derives close to 70% of total sales from the US, showing a higher dependence on the US market than most of its peer group.

Our recent call for a rally in the U.S. Dollar Index, a reversal in metals, and more struggles in emerging markets took a Mike Tyson left hook to the chin on Tuesday. A "sweeping" stimulus package from China sent Chinese stocks soaring and Materials stocks to the moon. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) spiked 10%, its largest one-day move since March 2022, while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) popped 3.4%. The Materials (XLB) sector was the largest gainer on Tuesday, with a 1.4% gain - but that doesn't tell the entire story. The real action took place within the sector, with nonferrous metals and aluminum bolting higher by 7.6%-7.9%. Copper futures spiked 4%, leading to big gains in Southern Copper (SCCO) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Aluminum was led by Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) and Alcoa (AA). Mining stocks also did well, led by BHP Group, Rio Tinto, and MP Materials. Silver futures surged 4.6% and are back at the top of the range that began months ago. The timing of the stimulus package is interesting. Was it in reaction to the Fed's larger-than-expected rate cut and/or an attempt to front-run a possible increase in U.S. tariffs (which would hurt China's competitiveness in certain markets)? We will let others argue about that, as mixing politics with the equity market is like trying to mix oil and water. It generally doesn't work out very well. The bull rages on and now more fuel has been added to the fire. Some are talking about a melt-up. That action is fun while it lasts, but always ends in big losses on the other side. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)