For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction -- and at the moment, that is exactly what is happening with insider sentiment. Major stock indices continue to rise and insider-sentiment indicators from Vickers Stock Research continue to fall. That said, the current action is well within historical norms; it tells us that insiders likely don't see much low-hanging fruit and that the recent run higher in stocks may be getting a bit frothy. But it doesn't suggest it is time to run for the exits. Vickers' broadest sentiment reading, the Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio, is currently 2.45 and still within the neutral territory between 2.00 and 2.50. Since early October, the ratio has floated in the neutral zone and, like now, has flirted several time with a break into bearish territory above 2.50. But so far, it has not. On an exchange basis, the NYSE eight-week remains neutral at 2.37, while the Nasdaq eight-week has pushed into bearish territory with a reading of 2.61. But considering the Nasdaq's significant outperformance compared to the S&P 500, we aren't shocked that insiders on the exchange are taking some money off the table.

Stocks fell on Thursday, extending Wednesday's selloff, as investors weighed a wide range of earnings reports, a tentative labor agreement between Ford and the UAW, and stronger-than-expected GDP data. Shares of Meta fell 3.7%, along with Apple (down 2.5%) and Microsoft (down 3.8%). The 10-year yield pulled back to 4.84%. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.8%. Crude oil fell settled at $83.63 per barrel, while gold closed near $1993 per ounce.

Proper leadership for the stock market is one of the most important indicators of the health of a bull market. This takes on even more importance because the major indices are cap-weighted, with some industries and sectors heavily weighted in the indices and others not at all. In addition, the psyche of a bull market reflects which stocks are leading. Are they higher-beta names with strong growth revenues and EPS prospects that can add some real alpha to a portfolio? Or are they lower-beta names, where slow and steady is the name of the game.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings

Stocks gave up most of their early gains on Thursday morning as investors weighed earnings from Disney and PepsiCo, along with weekly employment data. Disney shares rose after the company reported better-than-expected fiscal 1Q results and announced substantial cost cuts, including the elimination of 7,000 jobs. The company is also likely to restore its dividend by the end of the year. PepsiCo shares rose following above-consensus 4Q earnings and the announcement of a 10% dividend hike. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil fell 1% to $77.50 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1885 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, extending yesterday's Fed-driven selloff. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank still had 'some ways to go' on rate hikes, and that interest rates at the end of the cycle could be higher than previously expected. The comments dashed investor hopes for a quick pivot to diminishing rate hikes. On the earnings front, Qualcomm shares fell sharply after the chipmaker issued much weaker than expected fiscal 1Q23 guidance, citing slower demand for smartphones. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil fell 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold fell $24 to $1626 per ounce.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from AMD, Starbucks, and CVS along with new U.S. service sector data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its nonmanufacturing index rose to 56.7 in July, up from 55.3 in June and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 53.5. The reading marked the first increase after three straight monthly declines. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.8%. Crude oil fell 2% to $92 per barrel, while gold fell $19 to $1771 per ounce.

Stocks have struggled in 2022, in particular over the past two weeks. In response, several insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research are now positive -- suggesting that insiders are using the current dip as an opportunity to buy stocks at seemingly reduced prices.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, recovering from Tuesday's selloff, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this afternoon. Housing market data was positive. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales rose 11.9% in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 811,000, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 760,000. The Dow rose 1.0%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil traded near $88 per barrel, while gold fell $20 to $1832 per ounce.

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs (ATHs) set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the '500' fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.

Volatile stock trading continued on "Fed Day," with the market ending on a strong note. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 1%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rose 0.9%, the S&P MidCap 400 tacked on 1.4%, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) jumped 1.5%. NYSE breadth was strong at +2,077. So is the pullback over? We can consider some positive events and some not-so-great developments, at least for the short term.

Market breadth for both indices and sectors remains mixed. The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 50-day average has improved to 54% from 37% in mid-July. It certainly would be preferable if this percentage continued to improve. The percentage of index components above their 200-day average has fallen to 84% from a recent 90%, but is still a very strong reading.

Stocks rose on Thursday amid a new round of earnings reports along with 2Q GDP and weekly employment data. Investors also continued to assess the Fed's probable timeline for tapering its bond-buying program. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.5% annualized rate in 2Q, up from the prior quarter but well below the consensus forecast of 8.4%. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims fell to 400,000 for the week ended July 24, but exceeded the consensus of 380,000. Continuing claims rose slightly to 3.27 million from 3.18 million a week earlier. The Dow rose 0.44%, the S&P 0.42%, and the Nasdaq 0.11%. Crude oil rose to $73.50 per barrel, while gold rose $29 to $1828 per ounce.

On Wednesday, we talked about the strength of Technology sector stocks and their primary indices. We focused on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and showed a very top-heavy situation. Seven stocks make up 48% of the ETF. Five of them are at/near all-time highs (ATHs) and AAPL is 6% from an ATH. TSLA is 22% from its ATH, but has been strong in the past couple of days, retaking both its 50- and 200-day averages over the past week.

We continue to (mostly) ignore market sentiment as bullish extremes become even more extreme. Indeed, other than some mild pullbacks, we haven't seen anything close to real fear since the COVID-19 collapse in February and March of 2020.

Stocks recovered from midday losses on Thursday afternoon, led by the Communication Services and Financial sectors. Facebook shares rose more than 7% after the company posted much better than expected 1Q sales and earnings, along with an increase in daily active users. On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. GDP rose at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the consensus forecast of 6.1%. First-time jobless claims fell to 553,000 for the week ended April 24, down from a revised 566,000 a week earlier but above the consensus forecast of 540,000. Continuing claims rose to 3.66 million, up from 3.65 million a week earlier. The Dow rose 0.71%, the S&P 0.68%, and the Nasdaq 0.22%. Crude oil traded near $65 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1773 per ounce.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose almost 5% on Wednesday, finishing at $63.12/barrel, back above its 50-day moving average. This follows several weeks of consolidation and shrinking volatility. Since the peak near $68 on March 8, crude oil completed a head-and-shoulders top, but (bullishly) did not see any downside follow-through.

Maybe Monday -- when all indices, small and large, and all 11 S&P sectors rose in unison -- was just a mirage. Or as a sportscaster used to say, "the fans rise as one." On Wednesday, we were back to what has been the norm in late 2020 and early 2021: weakness primarily in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulling the S&P 500 down with it, but continued relative strength in small-caps and mid-caps.

Recently, we talked about the potential for a major U.S. Dollar Index (USD) bottom based on a number of technical factors. The greenback is close to major long-term chart support, the COT data (absolute and adjusted for open interest) is very favorable for the dollar, and the COT data for the euro (58% of the USD) is very unfavorable. Sentiment toward the dollar is very poor, while sentiment toward the euro is very bullish. So far, USD has bounced and looks to be tracing out a higher low.

New Year Brings More of the Same for Economy, New Sector Leadership

Stocks finished down in the trading week ended November 20, as an historical year gallops toward a close. The S&P 500 and DJIA were each down less than a percentage point despite the worsening pandemic and the president's efforts to overturn the election results. Still, November has so far logged an 8.8% gain on the S&P 500, propelled higher by the positive vaccine news out of Pfizer and Moderna.

The stock market had an interesting week before the Labor Day holiday. On 9/2/20, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set new all-time highs, as they have done dozens of times in 2020. Further, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 29,000 for the first time since 2/22/20. Then, fierce selling on 9/3/20 was followed by moderate, but still intense, profit taking on 9/4/20.

The stock market had an interesting week before the Labor Day holiday. On 9/2/20, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set new all-time highs, as they have done dozens of times in 2020. Further, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 29,000 for the first time since 2/22/20. Then, fierce selling on 9/3/20 was followed by moderate, but still intense, profit taking on 9/4/20.

On July 8, we discussed the potential attractiveness of silver. So far, so good. While gold prices (at $1,813/oz.) have been grinding higher and are nearing the closing all-time high (ATH) from 2011 (of $1,900/oz.), silver prices (at $19.81/oz.) had been stuck in the mud and remain well off their 2011 closing ATH (of $48.60/oz.). But now, silver has broken above recent resistance. Is it time for the white metal to shine?

On July 8, we discussed the potential attractiveness of silver. So far, so good. While gold prices (at $1,813/oz.) have been grinding higher and are nearing the closing all-time high (ATH) from 2011 (of $1,900/oz.), silver prices (at $19.81/oz.) had been stuck in the mud and remain well off their 2011 closing ATH (of $48.60/oz.). But now, silver has broken above recent resistance. Is it time for the white metal to shine?

Technology has been the leading sector in 2020, which continues a multi-year pattern and also reflects new inputs. The iShares Technology ETF (IYW) is up 4.6% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down 9.3% and the DJIA is off 14.7%.

Technology has been the leading sector in 2020, which continues a multi-year pattern and also reflects new inputs. The iShares Technology ETF (IYW) is up 4.6% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down 9.3% and the DJIA is off 14.7%.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning amid continued coronavirus fears after the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency and the State Department warned against travel to China. In the U.S., the Commerce Department said that consumer spending rose 0.3% in December, down from 0.4% growth in November but in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. On the earnings front, Amazon shares rose 9% after the online retailer posted better-than-expected 4Q sales and earnings. The S&P fell 1.3%, the Dow 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil traded near $51 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1591 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning amid continued coronavirus fears after the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency and the State Department warned against travel to China. In the U.S., the Commerce Department said that consumer spending rose 0.3% in December, down from 0.4% growth in November but in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. On the earnings front, Amazon shares rose 9% after the online retailer posted better-than-expected 4Q sales and earnings. The S&P fell 1.3%, the Dow 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil traded near $51 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1591 per ounce.

The stock market had an interesting week before the Labor Day holiday. On 9/2/20, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set new all-time highs, as they have done dozens of times in 2020. Further, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 29,000 for the first time since 2/22/20. Then, fierce selling on 9/3/20 was followed by moderate, but still intense, profit taking on 9/4/20.

On July 8, we discussed the potential attractiveness of silver. So far, so good. While gold prices (at $1,813/oz.) have been grinding higher and are nearing the closing all-time high (ATH) from 2011 (of $1,900/oz.), silver prices (at $19.81/oz.) had been stuck in the mud and remain well off their 2011 closing ATH (of $48.60/oz.). But now, silver has broken above recent resistance. Is it time for the white metal to shine?

Technology has been the leading sector in 2020, which continues a multi-year pattern and also reflects new inputs. The iShares Technology ETF (IYW) is up 4.6% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down 9.3% and the DJIA is off 14.7%.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning amid continued coronavirus fears after the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency and the State Department warned against travel to China. In the U.S., the Commerce Department said that consumer spending rose 0.3% in December, down from 0.4% growth in November but in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. On the earnings front, Amazon shares rose 9% after the online retailer posted better-than-expected 4Q sales and earnings. The S&P fell 1.3%, the Dow 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil traded near $51 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1591 per ounce.

The major indices came near record intraday highs at midday on Thursday. The United States and China are reportedly discussing the removal of tariffs by both parties as a central part of a 'phase one' trade deal, according to a Chinese government spokesman. Industries doing well today include Real Estate Management & Development, Energy Equipment & Services, and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment. Industries showing weakness include Professional Services, Electric Utilities, and Internet & Direct Marketing Retail. The VIX is down 0.06 to 12.56 after the previous close of 12.62. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $57 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1485 per ounce.

The major indices came near record intraday highs at midday on Thursday. The United States and China are reportedly discussing the removal of tariffs by both parties as a central part of a 'phase one' trade deal, according to a Chinese government spokesman. Industries doing well today include Real Estate Management & Development, Energy Equipment & Services, and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment. Industries showing weakness include Professional Services, Electric Utilities, and Internet & Direct Marketing Retail. The VIX is down 0.06 to 12.56 after the previous close of 12.62. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $57 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1485 per ounce.

GDP Softens, Earnings Top Expectations as Rally Rolls Along

GDP Softens, Earnings Top Expectations as Rally Rolls Along

Stocks rose on Friday against the favorable backdrop of good corporate earnings and a stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were both up 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.5%. For the week, earnings unfolded in a largely positive way, although weakness from some Dow components (such as 3M, Intel and Caterpillar) held back its performance. The Nasdaq was up 1.9% and the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, but the Dow declined 0.1% for the week. Year-to-date gains stand at 13.8% for the Dow, 22.8% for the Nasdaq and 17.2% for the S&P 500.

Stocks rose on Friday against the favorable backdrop of good corporate earnings and a stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were both up 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.5%. For the week, earnings unfolded in a largely positive way, although weakness from some Dow components (such as 3M, Intel and Caterpillar) held back its performance. The Nasdaq was up 1.9% and the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, but the Dow declined 0.1% for the week. Year-to-date gains stand at 13.8% for the Dow, 22.8% for the Nasdaq and 17.2% for the S&P 500.

Stocks rose on Friday against the favorable backdrop of good corporate earnings and a stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were both up 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.5%. For the week, earnings unfolded in a largely positive way, although weakness from some Dow components (such as 3M, Intel and Caterpillar) held back its performance. The Nasdaq was up 1.9% and the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, but the Dow declined 0.1% for the week. Year-to-date gains stand at 13.8% for the Dow, 22.8% for the Nasdaq and 17.2% for the S&P 500.

Generally speaking, insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research remain benign, albeit with several 'one-off' issues that leave the sentiment readings a bit adrift.

Generally speaking, insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research remain benign, albeit with several 'one-off' issues that leave the sentiment readings a bit adrift.

GDP Softens, Earnings Top Expectations as Rally Rolls Along

Stocks rose on Friday against the favorable backdrop of good corporate earnings and a stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were both up 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.5%. For the week, earnings unfolded in a largely positive way, although weakness from some Dow components (such as 3M, Intel and Caterpillar) held back its performance. The Nasdaq was up 1.9% and the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, but the Dow declined 0.1% for the week. Year-to-date gains stand at 13.8% for the Dow, 22.8% for the Nasdaq and 17.2% for the S&P 500.

Generally speaking, insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research remain benign, albeit with several 'one-off' issues that leave the sentiment readings a bit adrift.

The major indices came near record intraday highs at midday on Thursday. The United States and China are reportedly discussing the removal of tariffs by both parties as a central part of a 'phase one' trade deal, according to a Chinese government spokesman. Industries doing well today include Real Estate Management & Development, Energy Equipment & Services, and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment. Industries showing weakness include Professional Services, Electric Utilities, and Internet & Direct Marketing Retail. The VIX is down 0.06 to 12.56 after the previous close of 12.62. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $57 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1485 per ounce.

Volatility reigns in equity markets, with investors forced to react to a suddenly large (and seemingly growing) number of issues. Meanwhile, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are quietly going about their business -- and, in so doing, are making a very noticeable statement.

Volatility reigns in equity markets, with investors forced to react to a suddenly large (and seemingly growing) number of issues. Meanwhile, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are quietly going about their business -- and, in so doing, are making a very noticeable statement.

Volatility reigns in equity markets, with investors forced to react to a suddenly large (and seemingly growing) number of issues. Meanwhile, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are quietly going about their business -- and, in so doing, are making a very noticeable statement.