Gold is near all-time highs, currently around $2,556/oz. We set a technical target of $2,400 to $2,500 earlier this year. Longer-term, gold could well go to $3,000 or higher. However, the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) is very oversold and is bouncing off its prior low from late 2023. The COT data remains bearish for the USD and has been pretty accurate in forecasting the intermediate-term direction of the greenback. Gold stocks are short-term overbought with some bearish divergences and may take a breather soon. But price is the final arbiter and there is certainly little concern about the current uptrend. We do see some nagging technical issues, but at this point they are just warnings. On the weekly chart, momentum has traced out a lower peak at its most-recent closing high versus the past high in mid-April. In addition, the uptrend in the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is in question as its primary trendline has been busted. We also have a five-wave uptrend of lesser degree off the late-2022 lows. We do have room on the weekly as far as the current bullish channel is concerned. The distance from its 200-week exponential moving average is 31%, and wide historically. On the monthly, we have seen a more-important primary five-wave rally off the lows since 2015. The latest monthly price high versus the prior high in July 2020 has not been confirmed by momentum -- and this is a glaring long-term bearish divergence. Gold has also run up to potential resistance from the top of its monthly bullish channel that has been in place since 2022. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The major benchmarks are all higher by at least 1% with small caps and tech stocks leading the way. Walmart crushed it last quarter, bringing in higher sales and revenue. Overall, Retail Sales signal a happy consumer as well, and jobless claims are in check. It's a good day.

Wednesday was another wild ride for Information Technology, this time to the upside, with buyers taking advantage of the recent fire sale. Semiconductors were again the main event, with the iShares Semi ETF (SOXX) surging 6.7% and the VanEck Vectors Semi (SMH) soaring 7.6%. If there were a volatility index like the VIX for the semiconductor indices, it would be interesting to see how high it would have shot up during the last 15 days. We'll venture a guess that a semi VIX would have jumped up to the 35% or 40% area, mirroring when the S&P 500 (SPX) had quick declines between 12% and 16% in recent years. According to www.barchart.com, the implied volatility (IV) of the SOXX is 37%. IV measures the market's expectations for how much an asset will fluctuate, is calculated using an option pricing model, and is expressed in annualized terms. Since July 10, the SOXX has fallen between 2.2% to 7% on six separate days and has risen between 2% to 6.7% on three different occasions. Yesterday was the first day we saw evidence of accumulation on the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the SOXX since late April, when the market was coming out of its last pullback. To feel better that a turn may be at hand, we would like to see three to five accumulation days over the next nine days. We also would like to see the Nasdaq and the QQQ retake their 50-day averages and would like to see a bullish cross of the five-day/13-day exponential averages. A key upside level for the SPX is a 61.8% retracement of the pullback at 5,565. For the QQQ, the 50-day is at 473.52, while a 61.8% take-back targets 484. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Early last week, we talked about the broadening stock market, but noted that the expansion in outperformance remained within Information Technology. We have seen a pause in the leading semiconductor stocks, but a pop in computer hardware and software. We also have seen nice short-term moves in banks, with some breaking out of bullish bases. But it's the semis we are worried about for a number of reasons. The industry has been on fire, soaring by 31% since April 19; by 79% since October 2023; and by 165% since October 2022. There have been a few decent pullbacks along the way, which is positive as each pullback creates a bullish base and a platform that turns into chart support on the way down. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is 70% above its 200-week exponential average. That was exceeded only after the rebound from the pandemic, so we are in rarefied air. While the S&P 500, S&P 100, Invesco S&P Top 50 (XLG), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all have made all-time highs over the past five days, the SOXX has done so by a mere $0.31. The Van Eck Vectors Semi ETF (SMH), the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index ($DJUSSC), and "King Nvidia" have not. The SOXX relative strength (RS) versus the QQQs has been flat since early March, while the RS of the other two semi indices has been flat over the past month. The vortex indicator for the semi stocks is either just crossing into sell territory or is close. The last time this occurred was in late March and again in August to October of 2023, both early days in semi pullbacks. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

After massive advances, it's looking more and more like the uptrend in metals is finally failing. We thought the rally might be over back in mid-April after a parabolic move and then a massive price reversal on huge volume. Gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and copper (CPER) all pulled back into early May but then made one advance to all-time highs for GLD and CPER and new recovery highs for SLV. Those new price peaks for GLD were minor and followed a big move higher, similar to what we recently saw in the stock market. These patterns of one last minor high after big rallies are bearish more often than not. In addition, the new highs were not confirmed by daily momentum and created nasty bearish divergences.

Following an extended period of bearish activity among insiders at companies listed on the Nasdaq, there is now a developing increase in caution from corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners at companies that list on the NYSE. Indeed, the NYSE insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research has now grabbed the cautious lead from the Nasdaq. On that front, the NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio from Vickers has jumped to 6.97 from last week's 3.38, causing the NYSE eight-week reading to climb to 4.03 from last week's 3.54.

In the metals space, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) looks interesting, at least from a short-term technical perspective. SLV hit an intraday high of $27.24 on April 12, the day that both SLV and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) reversed sharply lower on huge volume. SLV fell to an intraday low of $23.87 on May 3, or just over 12% and right back to its 50-day exponential average as well as to a 50% retracement of the rally from late February until April 12.

Monday Tee Up: A Big Week

Artificial Intelligence: Investment Ideas in the Age of AI

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

As of the close on Friday, August 18, the major indices had fallen in three consecutive weeks for the first time since December 2022, when they all fell four weeks in a row. The Nasdaq fell to its key 21-week exponential average (EMA) on that Friday and bounced, while the S&P 500 was within 10 points of its 21-week EMA before bouncing. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) got within four points of the average and popped. Rebounds on Friday did nothing to erase the short-term downtrends, as the 10- and 21-day EMAs for the indices are above declining price and the indices all undercut their 50-day.

Fed on the Sidelines: What's Next for the Market?

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors will be watching to see whether Mr. Powell strikes a more hawkish tone after last week's post-rate-hike news conference and strong January employment report. Baidu shares jumped 11% on news that the Chinese tech company would launch a new artificial intelligence chatbot, similar to ChatGPT, in March. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil rose $3 to $77 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1989 per ounce.

U.S. equities rose slightly on Tuesday morning as the Street analyzed remarks from Chair Powell. Meanwhile, shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 17% higher this morning despite the retailer missing earnings and revenue estimates yet again as bankruptcy speculation starts to ramp up. The Nasdaq is up 0.2%, the S&P is up 0.1.3%, the Dow Jones is up 0.1%. Crude oil is trading near $75 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1881 per ounce.

Rally in October, Stumble on the Fed: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, led by declines in the Energy and Consumer Staples sectors. First-time unemployment claims rose by 6,000 to 260,000 for the week ended July 30 and were slightly above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims also rose by 48,000 to 1.416 million. On the earnings front, Conoco posted better-than expected second-quarter results and said that it would substantially boost returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1804 per ounce.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern is being repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

This is among our most important themes for 2022, and stretches across industries. We think companies that consistently raise their dividends at a double-digit rate are sending off three important signals amid the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. The third factor is especially important as the pandemic upended the nation's recent record of long-term economic growth. Here are 19 stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning ahead of the Federal Reserve's afternoon policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. On the employment front, payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 247,000 payroll jobs in April, down from 479,000 in March and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 383,000. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose more than 3% to $106 per barrel, while gold dropped $3 to $1868 per ounce.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but was more than $24 trillion at the end of 2021. That's growth of 24-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than three-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven, in large part, by innovation.

Innovation may be hard to define, but (to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart) you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago -- textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree -- have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations were not innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding. As well, capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to the pandemic and upcoming changes to interest rates by the Federal Reserve, we look to innovative companies to navigate the challenges successfully. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies that are featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

Volatility, in both indices and individual stocks, remains extreme. Once a market pulls back by a decent amount (8%-10%) or correct (11%-20%), it is typical for that market to be wild from day to day, and even week to week. A new trading range for many stocks and indices is being hammered-out right now -- and the process usually takes some time (assuming a low is in) to complete a bottom.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the Industrial sector appear well-positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery, and electrical equipment. The sector is underperforming the market thus far in 2021, with a gain of 13.5%. It also underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Runaway inflation -- a 20% rate -- has sent Turkish 10-year bond rates soaring toward 19%. A relatively high inflation rate of 10% is also propping up 10-year bond rates in Brazil at 12%. But interest rates around the rest of the world are near all-time lows, as they are in the U.S. and the U.K., or are even outright negative, as in Japan, France, Germany, and Switzerland. In the U.S., we note that the Federal Reserve has taken extraordinary steps to keep financial markets functioning, and we don't look for the Fed to raise short-term rates until later next year. At the same time, we do not expect the Fed to follow European peers and establish negative interest rates in the U.S. First of all, the jury is out as to whether negative rates are actually helping these economies recover. Second, money-market funds in the U.S. play an important role in the financial markets, and negative government bond yields would "break the buck." Third, the U.S. central bank is already starting to pull back some of its support for the U.S. economy by tapering its asset purchases. We do look for U.S. interest rates to head higher over the next 2-3 years. Our advice to fixed-income investors seeking current yield is to consider ETFs specializing in inflation-indexed debt, securitized debt, or floating bonds.

Runaway inflation -- a 20% rate -- has sent Turkish 10-year bond rates soaring toward 19%. A relatively high inflation rate of 10% is also propping up 10-year bond rates in Brazil at 12%. But interest rates around the rest of the world are near all-time lows, as they are in the U.S. and the U.K., or are even outright negative, as in Japan, France, Germany, and Switzerland. In the U.S., we note that the Federal Reserve has taken extraordinary steps to keep financial markets functioning, and we don't look for the Fed to raise short-term rates until later next year. At the same time, we do not expect the Fed to follow European peers and establish negative interest rates in the U.S. First of all, the jury is out as to whether negative rates are actually helping these economies recover. Second, money-market funds in the U.S. play an important role in the financial markets, and negative government bond yields would "break the buck." Third, the U.S. central bank is already starting to pull back some of its support for the U.S. economy by tapering its asset purchases. We do look for U.S. interest rates to head higher over the next 2-3 years. Our advice to fixed-income investors seeking current yield is to consider ETFs specializing in inflation-indexed debt, securitized debt, or floating bonds.

As major stock indices trade near all-time highs and the VIX volatility index rests near its lowest level since the start of the pandemic, the volume of insider transactions has risen to the highest level since early September. The snap-back in volume is not surprising given pent-up demand from the recent earnings hiatus. Furthermore, after a year of impressive returns for the stock market, executives, directors, and beneficial owners may be engaging in year-end tax planning as capital-gains issues loom large these days.

Innovation may be hard to define but, to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to the pandemic and upcoming changes to interest rates by the Federal Reserve, we look to innovative companies to navigate the challenges. At Argus, an 85-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. The following innovative, BUY-rated stocks were recently added to our Growth Model Portfolio, our new Innovative Growth Separately Managed Account and our Modern Innovators UIT. The full list of stocks can also be found in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, the domestic economy would not be growing and capital would not be flooding into the country. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but nearly $23 trillion at the end of 1H21. That's growth of 23-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than three-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven, in large part, by innovation. In addition, the value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2020 was approximately $41 trillion, according to SIFMA, representing 38% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 26% of global GDP. The current low level of interest rates and the relatively high level of the dollar both attest to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and weaker-than-expected employment data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 330,000 jobs in July, down from 680,000 in June and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 695,000. Services sector data was positive. The Institute for Supply Management said that its nonmanufacturing index rose to a record 64.1 in July, up from 60.1 in June and above the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1813 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, led by the Technology sector, as a disappointing April jobs report diminished concerns that the Fed would cut back on bond purchases. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell sharply to about 1.55% following the report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. added just 266,000 jobs in April, down from 770,000 in March and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 978,000. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1% from 6.0% in March. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $65 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1831 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January 2020, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. But the performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks gave up early gains on Wednesday morning as investors weighed new consumer price data and awaited an afternoon speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 0.3% in January, up from a revised 0.2% gain in December and in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. Prices also rose 1.4% on an annual basis through January, up slightly from 1.3% in December. The Dow was flat, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $59 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1836 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

In the trading week that ended on October 30, the stock market had its most serious stumble since the early weeks of the pandemic. Earnings and economic news was generally positive, including the record 33% recovery in 3Q20 GDP. But the combination of sharply rising COVID-19 cases and prospects for an inconclusive and contested election spooked investors heading into Halloween.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Moderna Inc (MRNA); Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT); Verizon Communications Inc (VZ); Adobe Inc (ADBE) and the Focus List deletions are Arista Networks Inc (ANET); Danaher Corp. (DHR); L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX); Twitter Inc (TWTR).

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Moderna Inc (MRNA); Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT); Verizon Communications Inc (VZ); Adobe Inc (ADBE) and the Focus List deletions are Arista Networks Inc (ANET); Danaher Corp. (DHR); L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX); Twitter Inc (TWTR).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Market-Weight. While we see pockets of strength in areas such as trucking, and room for a rebound in aerospace-defense, the sector's exposure to the oil patch and weaker manufacturing volume argue for a market-aligned weighting at this time. The Industrial sector accounts for 7.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 7%-9% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. Here are some of our top picks; all are rated BUY at Argus.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Market-Weight. While we see pockets of strength in areas such as trucking, and room for a rebound in aerospace-defense, the sector's exposure to the oil patch and weaker manufacturing volume argue for a market-aligned weighting at this time. The Industrial sector accounts for 7.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 7%-9% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. Here are some of our top picks; all are rated BUY at Argus.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $7 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. Mr. Fink's new focus follows rapid growth in sustainable assets in recent years. According to Opimas, a management consultancy focused on global capital markets, global assets under management in ESG strategies had grown to $40.5 trillion in 2020, doubling in four years and tripling in eight years. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies for various reasons. Now, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues.

This edition features Berkshire's latest 13-F; new rules to fight Huawei; the Wide Moat Focus Index; and notes from Walmart and new coverage Treehouse Foods and L3Harris Technologies.

L3Harris Technologies was created in 2019 from the merger of L3 Technologies and the Harris Corporation, two defense contractors that provide products for the command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) market. The firm also has smaller operations serving the civil government, particularly the Federal Aviation Administration’s communication infrastructure, and produces various avionics for defense and commercial aviation.

Charging Ahead: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Charging Ahead: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

The U.S. economy added back 4.8 million jobs in June, as companies continued to return employees to work. The unemployment rate dropped from 13.3% in May to 11.1%. Employment rose sharply in Leisure and Hospitality (two-fifths of the jobs growth), Retail Trade and Health Services -- though employee levels in these industries are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing (autos) and Other Services (personal and laundry) also reported growth. The employment data remains murky. Also this morning, the Labor Department reported that another 1.427 million people filed unemployment claims, and the total of continuous claims ticked higher to 19.3 million. The broader U6 unemployment rate, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and part-time workers who want full-time jobs, stands at 18%, down from 21.2% last month. We expect the unemployment rate will remain high through 2020 as the U.S. economy slowly recovers. The stock market is already looking ahead to that recovery, though, and futures are higher. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen close to 0.7%. We note that the VIX volatility index remains extremely high, and expect volatile trading conditions for the foreseeable future.

The U.S. economy added back 4.8 million jobs in June, as companies continued to return employees to work. The unemployment rate dropped from 13.3% in May to 11.1%. Employment rose sharply in Leisure and Hospitality (two-fifths of the jobs growth), Retail Trade and Health Services -- though employee levels in these industries are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Manufacturing (autos) and Other Services (personal and laundry) also reported growth. The employment data remains murky. Also this morning, the Labor Department reported that another 1.427 million people filed unemployment claims, and the total of continuous claims ticked higher to 19.3 million. The broader U6 unemployment rate, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and part-time workers who want full-time jobs, stands at 18%, down from 21.2% last month. We expect the unemployment rate will remain high through 2020 as the U.S. economy slowly recovers. The stock market is already looking ahead to that recovery, though, and futures are higher. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen close to 0.7%. We note that the VIX volatility index remains extremely high, and expect volatile trading conditions for the foreseeable future.

The U.S. economy shed an unfathomable 20.5 million jobs in April, reflecting the steps the country took to shut down non-essential businesses and order people to shelter at home to fight the spread of COVID-19. The unemployment rate soared from 4.4% in March to 14.5%. The 14.5% rate is the highest since the Great Depression and is a striking comparison to the rate of 3.5% in February, which was the lowest rate in 50 years. Not a single category generated gains in April, and the sharpest drops in employment occurred in Leisure & Hospitality, in which 7.7 million jobs were cut; Retail (2.1 million job losses); Professional and Business Services (2.1 million); and Manufacturing (1.3 million). Looking ahead, the unemployment rate is certain to climb. According to the weekly unemployment claims report, approximately 33 million have filed for unemployment and that number -- which is slowing week-over-week from 6.8 million in late March to 3.2 million in late April -- is likely climbing toward 40 million by the time of the next employment survey. The stock market is looking ahead to the recovery and futures are higher. We note that the VIX volatility index remains extremely high, and expect volatile trading conditions for an extended period.

The U.S. economy shed an unfathomable 20.5 million jobs in April, reflecting the steps the country took to shut down non-essential businesses and order people to shelter at home to fight the spread of COVID-19. The unemployment rate soared from 4.4% in March to 14.5%. The 14.5% rate is the highest since the Great Depression and is a striking comparison to the rate of 3.5% in February, which was the lowest rate in 50 years. Not a single category generated gains in April, and the sharpest drops in employment occurred in Leisure & Hospitality, in which 7.7 million jobs were cut; Retail (2.1 million job losses); Professional and Business Services (2.1 million); and Manufacturing (1.3 million). Looking ahead, the unemployment rate is certain to climb. According to the weekly unemployment claims report, approximately 33 million have filed for unemployment and that number -- which is slowing week-over-week from 6.8 million in late March to 3.2 million in late April -- is likely climbing toward 40 million by the time of the next employment survey. The stock market is looking ahead to the recovery and futures are higher. We note that the VIX volatility index remains extremely high, and expect volatile trading conditions for an extended period.