Insiders remain on the fence. All of the one-week sell/buy ratios from Vickers Stock Research improved this week (but are not stellar), while all the eight-week ratios are best described as flat. From a longer-term view, the six-month-based Insider Index from Vickers appears to have leveled off after months of deterioration -- and indeed improved slightly from last week. Still, the reading remains far from bullish territory and no return to bullish is imminent as the index is at its most-bearish level since September 2021. End of day, there is no compelling movement in insider sentiment this week. Meanwhile, according to Argus' Mark Arbeter, CMT, 'market breadth is certainly not optimal for a bull market, and eventually one of two things likely will happen. The rest (or part) of the market will wake up and start to participate, adding to the semiconductors strength, or the semis will run into trouble and take an already weak market structure lower. Dominance by the heavily weighted market caps is not a bad thing -- as long as it persists.' On a sector basis, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Information Technology, with shares valued at $1.11 billion sold, followed by Consumer Staples ($338 million sold) and Financials ($185 million sold). Buying outpaced selling in Energy, with $107 million of shares bought versus $45 million sold, as well as in Real Estate and Materials. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) and Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL).

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The fourth-quarter earnings season has crossed the 95% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 10%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 53%. On the flipside, Energy (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 22%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 4Q23 EPS reporting season.

Weekly Tee Up: Walmart and Nvidia

In this edition, luxury items should regain some luster; pessimism overblown for Bapcor; interest is shifting to rate cuts in European banking; and Orsted, Kerry Logistics, and CureVac.

U.S. equities rose on Thursday led by tech stocks. Alphabet surged 5% on the release of its Gemini AI, and AMD was up nearly 10% after it unveiled its MI300 data center chip. Weekly unemployment claims were largely in line with expectations. The Labor Department said that first-time claims rose by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended December 2. With the labor market getting back to normal, investors are betting that the Fed has finished its rate hiking. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.4%. Crude oil rose slightly, to nearly $70 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $2046 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

We've studied insider sentiment and insider transactions for many years. And while there are significant nuances in play when digging deep into this data, the big picture items are not overly surprising. In particular, we find the greatest value in insider-sentiment gauges when corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners are aligned across multiple timeframes, all stock exchanges, and all sectors. Further, when insiders are aligned in that manner and are acting in a contrarian fashion to 'other' investors, we get very interested. But that is just not the case right now.

Monday Tee Up: Inflation and GDP

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning following more congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell and new employment data. Mr. Powell said that the Fed had not yet decided on the size of its next rate increase, and that it would wait to see additional data ahead of the March 21-22 FOMC meeting. Employment data again pointed to a strong job market. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 242,000 jobs in February, up from 119,000 in January and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1823 per ounce.

Stocks were mostly lower on Tuesday morning after an early rally faltered. Housing data was weak. The Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts fell 0.5% in November to an annualized 1.427 million units, slightly above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.4 million. The decline reflected rising mortgage rates and a 4.1% drop in single-family housing starts, partly offset by an increase in multi-family projects. Building permits also plunged a sharp 11.2% last month. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil fell slightly to $75 per barrel, while gold rose $28 to $1825 per ounce.

Stocks rose in volatile trading on Wednesday morning, led by the Energy and Communication Services sectors. Biogen shares jumped 38% after the company reported positive data from an Alzheimer's drug trial, while Apple fell more than 3% on reports that it would drop plans to boost production of its new iPhone due to slowing demand. In the UK, the Bank of England announced that it would buy 65 billion pounds of long-dated government bonds in an effort to stem a massive selloff and maintain financial stability. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil rose nearly 3% to $81 per barrel, while gold rose $25 to $1661 per ounce.

In this edition, Big-Box Retailers' big Outlooks, Inflation Reduction Act's Winners and Losers, Initiating Coverage on BYD, and General Motors, Kohl's, and Tapestry.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning after recent sharp losses as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate announcement this afternoon. Based on recent hot inflation data, the Fed is now expected to move even more aggressively than initially planned, with a 75-basis-point hike. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil fell to $118 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1823 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning, giving up some of Tuesday's gains, led by declines in the Technology and Communication Services sectors. Retail sales data was stronger than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 3.8% in January, above the consensus estimate of 2.0%, after a 2.5% decline in in December. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $95 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1863 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors weighed a range of earnings reports and new employment data. Macy's shares jumped more than 21% after the retailer posted strong 3Q earnings and raised its full-year guidance. Nvidia shares also rose on stronger-than-expected results, while Cisco fell on weak sales guidance and supply-chain concerns. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 268,000 for the week ended November 13, down slightly from the prior week but above the consensus forecast of 260,000. Continuing claims fell to 2.08 million, down from 2.209 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 0.17%, the S&P rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%. Crude oil fell slightly to $79 per barrel, while gold fell to $1861 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors weighed a range of earnings reports and new employment data. Macy's shares jumped more than 21% after the retailer posted strong 3Q earnings and raised its full-year guidance. Nvidia shares also rose on stronger-than-expected results, while Cisco fell on weak sales guidance and supply-chain concerns. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 268,000 for the week ended November 13, down slightly from the prior week but above the consensus forecast of 260,000. Continuing claims fell to 2.08 million, down from 2.209 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 0.17%, the S&P rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%. Crude oil fell slightly to $79 per barrel, while gold fell to $1861 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Friday morning on continued depressed consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September came in at 71, compared to economists' expectation for 72. However it was slightly up from August's final reading of 70.3. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P declined 0.7%, and the Nasdaq was down 1%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1755 per ounce.

The stock market was mixed last week as blue chips outperformed technology stocks. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 229 points, or 0.66%. The S&P 500 was up 0.74% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.88%. For the week, the DJIA rose 2.67%, the S&P rose 1.23%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.51%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 13.63%, the S&P 12.69%, and the Nasdaq 6.70%.

April was a good month for stock indices and most of the S&P 500 sectors. The "500" jumped 5.2%, while the Nasdaq popped 5.4%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) leapt 5.9%, the Dow Industrials tacked on 2.7%, the NYSE Composite added 4%, the S&P Mid-Cap 400 rose 4.3%, and the lagging Russell 2000 moved higher by 1.8%. Those results represent very consistent gains among asset classes and market caps.

One of our many inputs for analyzing the stock market (and at one time, one of our favorites) is market sentiment. But if you read Market Movers on a regular basis, you might have noticed that we have talked about only one sentiment indicator in months. Why? Because, in general, sentiment has been off-the-charts bullish according to many indicators (put/call ratios for one), some going back to the middle of 2020. When trading, one must always use a stop-loss -- and it's no different with technical analysis: when one a tool stops working, put it aside and cut your forecasting mistakes.

The stock market had a solid washout on Thursday, unlike Monday when growth got hit and value did okay. Net advances versus decliners yesterday totaled -2,468, the worst since 10/28, when it hit -2,566. Looking at prior washout days (those with at least 2,000 more decliners) and going back to May, most of the days were near (within a few days) or right at the bottom. During February and March, we obviously saw a cluster of terrible breadth days as the decline was relentless.

Sentiment, Business Activity Remain Elevated in the New Year

Stocks rose strongly on Tuesday morning as American voters went to the polls and waited anxiously for the first returns this evening. Despite substantial uncertainty about the counting of mail-in ballots, tightening polls in several swing states, and control of the Senate, the rally suggested that investors were betting on a clear victory for Joe Biden and Senate Democrats, and on the economic boost that would come from a strong fiscal stimulus package. The Dow rose 2.5%, the S&P 2.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil traded near $38 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1908 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve announced a new strategy that will focus on keeping unemployment low and allow for higher inflation - above its 2% target - and lower interest rates over an extended period. The announcement came as first-time unemployment claims of 1.006 million remained above the 1 million mark for the second straight week, and continuing claims topped 14 million. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell to $43 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1936 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve announced a new strategy that will focus on keeping unemployment low and allow for higher inflation - above its 2% target - and lower interest rates over an extended period. The announcement came as first-time unemployment claims of 1.006 million remained above the 1 million mark for the second straight week, and continuing claims topped 14 million. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell to $43 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1936 per ounce.

This edition features our outlook for travel demand; a look into a Hong Kong REIT; our quarterly market outlook; and notes from Winnebago and new coverage BioNTech and Aphria.