Vipshop is a leading Chinese online discount retailer offering branded products at attractive discounts ranging from 10%-90% off their original price through daily flash sales. It operates warehousing, retailing, product procurements, software development, and information technology support in-house while outsourcing to third-party logistics providers for distribution and shipments. Branded products on Vipshop’s platform are sourced mostly through a consignment model with over 29,000 global partners as of Dec. 31, 2023. As of March 31, 2024, Eric Ya Shen, chairman and CEO, has 63.1% voting rights and a 30.9% stake while Arthur Xiaobo Hong, vice chairman and COO, has a 17.6% stake. Leading Chinese social media firm and strategic shareholder Tencent also holds an 11.8% interest.

U.S. stock indices are mostly in the red today, with investors perhaps experiencing a little 'green exhaustion' after the solid gains booked of late. Also of note, the meaningful news starts to hit the tape tomorrow with the release of the Fed minutes, so getting a little defensive in case the minutes include unwanted news is also defensible.

The dollar has strengthened in 2024, as the Federal Reserve has thus far not cut the fed funds rate, the U.S. economy has grown at a solid pace, and the high level of interest rates has attracted global investors into dollar-denominated securities. The greenback has climbed 2.5% on a trade-weighted basis in 2024 and is 17% above its average value since 2000. Looking ahead, we anticipate a relatively stable trading range for the dollar into 2025, for several reasons. For one, the dollar typically tracks GDP growth trends, and we think the U.S. economic expansion is poised to slow in coming quarters as the unemployment rate ticks higher. In addition, we expect the higher rates to increase the interest payments as a percent of GDP from recent lows of 1.5%, putting a modest strain on the U.S. balance sheet; the current rate is 3.8%. Lastly, the still-elevated valuation of the greenback implies that other currencies -- and even gold or other commodities -- are possibly undervalued, and we would expect investors such as the petrodollar-fueled sovereign wealth funds to bid up those values at a measured pace over time. For global investors, a higher dollar is a positive factor for export companies (particularly from China), as their goods become relatively cheaper in the global marketplace. But a higher dollar also can generate higher commodity prices, imported inflation, higher interest payments on global borrowings, and ultimately trade wars as U.S. exports stall.

With each passing day, major indices get closer and closer to their all-time highs (ATHs) from July 10 and July 16 (S&P 500 and S&P 400, respectively). The only major index that has bounced enough to reclaim ATH territory is the NYSE Composite, probably due to the minor 5.6% pullback the index saw in the second half of July and early August. The S&P 500 (SPX) is within 1% of its July 16 all-time closing high of 5,667.20 and remains on its "V" shaped formation and trajectory. The Chande Trend Meter is back up to 83%, indicating a strong and strengthening trend; the Vortex Indicator is close to bullish territory; the 14-day Relative Strength index is back above the midline 50% level; the daily MACD is back in positive territory; and the 21-day rate-of-change has cycled back into bullish territory after dropping into negative territory at the start of August. Some 75% of SPX stocks are above their key 200-day average, while 73% (up from 44% on August 5) are above their 50-day. More impressive, the more-concentrated S&P 100 (OEX) is showing 83% of its stocks above their 200-day average, up from a recent 65%. Both the SPX and OEX advance-decline (AD) lines have surged to ATHs prior to price; historically, that has been very bullish for at least the intermediate-term period. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is 4.5% from its ATH near 503 and its AD line has posted an ATH prior to price. Some 71% of QQQ issues are above their 200-day, up from 44% just 10 days ago, while the percentage above the 50-day has jumped to 61% from 29% on August 7. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Investors and analysts of all stripes seem amazed by the speed at which stocks are recovering from the early August swoon. Insiders, who had been so pessimistic a just few weeks ago, are included in this group. Among the positive indicators, the Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research has moved in a positive direction for a second week, marking its least-bearish reading since early May. Additionally, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio, NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio, and Nasdaq One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio are all lower (bullish) for a second week, and down dramatically from highs seen a mere three weeks ago. The above has led Vickers' Total, NYSE, and Nasdaq Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratios to also move lower for the first time in months. And all of the above is taking place in an environment that features growing transaction volume now that earnings-related trading restrictions are falling away. On a sector basis, insider buying outpaced selling in the Energy sector by a factor of 2.75-times. On the flipside, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Information Technology, with shares valued at $157 million sold versus $25 million bought. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Quanta Services Inc. (NYSE: PWR) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

Stocks are up. Movement is modest. The biggest name economists in the country, including Fed Chief Jerome Powell, put on their cowboy hats this week and head to Jackson Hole. On Friday, Powell takes the podium at the annual economic symposium. There has been a lot of high impact economic data out on inflation and labor since he last spoke publicly so this speech will garner much attention.

When management at a company raises guidance, it can be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The second-quarter earnings season is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of 12%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than what was expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance are strong gains in Financial, with earnings up 20%. On the flipside, Materials is performing the worst, down 6%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is a partial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q24 EPS reporting season. We like this theme, as it crosses numerous industries and generates a robust list of potential portfolio candidates.

Second-quarter earnings season is winding down, as the retailers wrap up their reports. The overall growth rate is set to land in the 12% range, an improvement from the high-single-digit rate in 1Q. There are three drivers to EPS growth: higher sales, a wider operating margin, and a reduced share count. A decline in shares outstanding, which is the result of corporate share buybacks, is the lowest-quality driver of EPS growth. Higher sales -- as customers demand and pay for more products and services -- is the highest quality, especially when those sales totals are driven by an increase in volume. (Second-quarter revenue growth was about 5%.) Margin management is in the middle. Consistently wider margins, quarter after quarter, are often a sign of a good management team, which is more often able to grow revenues faster than it grows costs. But that's a tall order in periods of high inflation (which raises the prices of Cost of Goods Sold) and of high interest rates (which result in higher financing costs). What's more, there's a cap to margins as they don't rise indefinitely. (This is one of those statistics for which the concept "reversion to the mean" is relevant.) In the second quarter, the S&P 500 operating margin widened by some 80 basis points year over year to 12.1%. This result fits into our outlook calling for a modest widening for the S&P 500 operating margin in 2024, and for EPS growth in the 9%-10% range for the year.

This could be another interesting week for the stock market as summer starts to wind down. There are big earnings reports from the likes of PANW, LOW, MDT, ADI, TGT, TJX, SNOW, BIDU, INTU, and WDAY. The minutes from the last Fed meeting will be released at 2:00 pm on Wednesday. And the annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole will be held Friday, with the key event being a speech by Fed Chairman Powell. Many expect him to tip his hand about an assumed 25-basis-point rate cut on September 18. The S&P 500 was strong last week, finishing with an almost-4% pop. The index is now up over 7% in the past nine days and 8.5% from the panic low on August 5. The current pattern in August looks like a "V" bottom that could either trace out a handle after reaching its prior high from August 1, or the index could run back to its all-time highs and then trace out a handle. Some of the recent "V" bottoms saw the index go past the former all-time high and then trace out a handle, flag, or consolidation. A completion of the pattern and move to all-time highs would open the door for a possible measured move above 6,000, possibly by late 2024 or early 2025. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) popped 5.5% last week, helped by a quick resurgence in semiconductor stocks and a 19% spike in NVDA. Sometimes great stocks don't give investors much time to accumulate on weakness. The QQQ is an incredible 20% above the August 5 panic low. It also appears to be tracing out a "V" bottom and, late last week, retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its decline and reclaimed (albeit barely) its 50-day moving average. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Many of the most-prominent economists in the country, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, head to Jackson Hole this week. Meanwhile, a few more key earnings report are due. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.9%, the S&P 500 gained 3.9%, and the Nasdaq popped 5.3%. Year to date, the DJIA is higher by 8%, the S&P is up 16%, and the Nasdaq is ahead by 17%. On the economic calendar, the schedule is light this week. On Friday, Mr. Powell takes the podium in Jackson Hole. A good amount of data about inflation and labor has hit the tape since he last spoke publicly, so his speech this week should get attention. In related news, the minutes from the Fed's July rate meeting will be out on Wednesday, and Existing Home Sales will be reported on Thursday. The earnings calendar is light, but does include some big reports. On Monday Palo Alto Networks and Estee Lauder will report. On Tuesday, Lowe's, Toll Brothers, and Medtronic. On Wednesday, Target, TJX Companies, Macy's, Analog Devices, and Agilent. And on Thursday, Intuit, Peloton, and CAVA. Earnings are coming in 12.5% higher this quarter than a year ago, this after 93% of S&P 500 companies have reported. Financial and Healthcare are the leading sectors, both up 20% for the quarter compared to the same quarter last year. Materials is on at other end, down 6%. Expectations were for 8%-12% earnings growth in 2Q. Last week, data on inflation continued to show improvement. CPI posted at 2.9% for July compared to 3.0% for June. Core CPI was 3.2% versus 3.3% the month prior. Mortgage rates inched up two basis points (bps) to 6.49% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices fell four cents to $3.41 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 3Q and calls for expansion of 2.0%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 2.6% for August CPI. Looking ahead, the next Fed rate decision is on September 18, with odds at 100% for a rate cut. Of that, 75% expect a 25-bps cut and 25% look for a 50-bps cut. There are two more Fed rate meetings this year, the first on November 7 (just after the U.S. presidential election) and the second on December 18. We have adjusted our rate forecast and now expect three rate cuts this year (up from two) for a total of 75 bps. We see two rate cuts in 2025. We expect all the cuts to be 25 bps.