Amid PCE data, 'don't get too complacent': Strategist

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Thursday morning's PCE inflation print arrived "in line" with economist estimates. However, MarketGauge.com Chief Strategist Michele Schneider cautions against seeing this as a clear sign of cooling inflation on Yahoo Finance Live.

Schneider advises not to get "too comfortable" with the notion that inflation bottomed in October. She points to the 1970s when inflation data eased repeatedly, only to reaccelerate after the "loosening of monetary policy." The Fed's higher-for-longer stance "makes sense" for now, with inflation showing signs of moderation without tanking the economy.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Angel Smith

Video Transcript

SEANA SMITH: One of our other big stories of the day, the big story of the day for the market, and that's the latest print on inflation PCE. Inflation report out this morning meeting the Street's expectations, coming in in line with the Street's expectations. Here to break it all down, we want to bring in Michele Schneider. She's marketgauge.com chief strategist.

Mich, it's great to have you. Let's talk about the reaction that we're seeing play out to this inflation print. Yes, it was in line with what the Street had been bracing themselves for. We're looking at gains here shortly after the open. How much of the inflation trend has already been priced into the market?

MICHELE SCHNEIDER: Well, that's a really good question because in terms of whether or not we can argue that actually inflation bottomed back in October when we're now starting to see upticks in CPI, PPI, the fact that PCE came in line, does that mean now that whatever little blip we had, rising in inflation is now over and it stays stayed is certainly something that I would not necessarily get too comfortable with.

Two reasons. Number one is because if we go back and look at the overlay charts, which I have shown over and over of the '70s and what's happened concurrently, is we saw all of the inflation numbers come down into '77 just like we've seen them come down from '22 to '24.

And if the predictions are correct and we start to see any kind of loosening of monetary policy as we get towards June was kind of exactly at the same time when we saw the trough in the CPI in the '70s could be the trough that we're seeing right now in PCE, CPI in the 2024 and we could start to see with any loosening that inflation numbers rise. So I'd say be happy now in terms of the inflation that it hasn't gotten out of control. But I wouldn't get too complacent still.