Oil markets (CL=F ,BZ=F) have experienced significant volatility as geopolitical tensions sparked a rally following Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel. Vectis Energy Partners principal Tamar Essner joins to share her outlook on the oil market.

Essner highlights the current bearish fundamentals in the oil market, noting that this is typically "a weak time of year" for the commodity. As the summer peak demand period wanes, the market enters a "shoulder season where refineries are in maintenance mode." This transition has exposed OPEC's substantial capacity that has been kept offline to "artificially lift up prices," while non-OPEC countries ramp up oil production, though Essner explains that their output is generally "independent of price."

She emphasizes that oil forecasts hinge on various factors, with geopolitical tensions — particularly the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict — playing a crucial role. Essner maintains a cautious stance, stating she would need to observe Israel's response before making definitive predictions.

On the fundamentals side, Essner is closely monitoring demand trends, with a particular focus China.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.

This post was written by Angel Smith