Magnificent 7 could easily become the 'Lag 7': Strategist

Tue, Mar 5, 2024, 7:02 AM

"They're no longer participating along with Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), so this is a market that needs to pause and consolidate. But again, we think it can still move higher throughout the end of the year," Johnson tells Yahoo Finance, later naming the Fantastic Four winners emerging from the Magnificent Seven.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

SEANA SMITH: All right. Well, the NASDAQ 100 futures edging a bit lower this morning. The Magnificent Seven stocks moving in a number of directions here. Tesla and Apple trading to the downside. You're looking at some pressure here. NVIDIA, though, continuing its upward trajectory.

So what does this tell us about the market rally, and where do we go from here? We want to bring in Craig Johnson. He's Piper Sandler's managing director. Craig, it's great to have you here. So the big debate right now on Wall Street, whether or not the massive rally that we've seen in tech, if it still has room to run, or if we're starting to see a bubble form. What do you think?

CRAIG JOHNSON: Well, what we've been publishing and what we've been talking about is that this is a market that needs to ultimately digest some of these gains. And what we've been talking about is that this market enters an HLTR, or a high level trading range, where we end up consolidating.

And we think that this consolidation is a normal price action that you see not only after having a very big run in the market coming out of Q4 of last year, but also what you typically see in election years. Markets end up consolidating ahead of elections. And, again, we think that'll probably be the case.

And then in terms of the Mag Seven, they pushed-- they've had very strong run, of course. But the Mag Seven is really now the Fantastic Four, as you're not seeing as many of those stocks like Apple, as you've mentioned and also Tesla. They're no longer participating along with Alphabet. So this is a market that needs to pause and consolidate.

But, again, we think can still move higher throughout the end of the year.

BRAD SMITH: So what are the Fantastic Four that traders, investors out there should be focusing in on?

CRAIG JOHNSON: Well, I think you've got to continue to focus in on Microsoft. They're still doing very well. Amazon is still doing well. NVIDIA is still constructive and pushing higher. Out of those three names right there, they still are participating, still doing well.

And from my perspective, until we see some break in NVIDIA, which has been a single stock selection for a lot of people in this market right now, we need to see that stock stay in this uptrend, stay above its 50-day moving average. And if it does, that's terrific.

But, again, it's been a big winner. It is probably due for some profit taking. But until you start to see the sell off, I would stay patient with it. Hold the position.

SEANA SMITH: Craig, what about the fact that so much of the market's gains here over the last 18 months driven by only a handful of stocks? We talk a lot about that concentration, the risk that can potentially portend here for the broader market. What's your read on that given where levels and valuations currently are?

CRAIG JOHNSON: Well, we do look at this concentrated market. It's been great. It's pushed everything higher. That being said, we think the Mag Seven is going to become the Lag Seven, as they're going to end up consolidating in here. And you're starting to see that happen with Apple consolidating and some of these other names.

And I think at this point in time, we're going to start to see a broadening out of this market. And this broadening out of this market happens, when the market correct, people take profits out of those Mag Seven or Fantastic Four stocks. And they start coming down cap. That's going to put a floor under this market, as it begins to broaden out.

But right now, I can take some profits in a lot of those names and just wait for the consolidation to come into play. As I've written in our most recent publication we put out, I think it's more likely to have a 10% downside move in this market than the next 10% being up.

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Magnificent 7 could easily become the 'Lag 7': Strategist

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