November jobs data: 'This is what a soft landing looks like'
According to the latest jobs report, the US added 199,000 jobs in the month of November while unemployment fell to 3.7%, both data points contrary to economists' expectations.
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas likens this labor print as "just another in a steady drumbeat of positive economic news," while Wolfe Research Chief Economist Stephanie Roth believes markets could re-adjust after running with the Federal Reserve's previous employment narrative.
"By the time we get to the second half of next year, the Fed will be well-positioned to cut rates because we're going to be headed towards 2.5% on core and top-line inflation by the end of next year," Brusuelas tells Yahoo Finance, elaborating on the Fed's inflation and recession outlooks for 2024.
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.
Video Transcript
- Well, we're going to go to our panel here.
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I'm lucky to be joined by a former Bloomberg here with me, Joe, RSM chief economist.
And Stephanie Roth, Wolff's research chief economist to discuss this jobs report.
Joe, I want to go to you first.
What is the big thing sticking out to you here?
JOE BRUSUELAS: This is what a soft landing looks like.
This is what full employment looks like.
You should like full employment.
I like full employment.
We all should like full employment.
This is just another in a steady drumbeat of very positive economic news.
BRAD SMITH: If you're a Fed Chair Jay Powell, Stephanie, and dusting off your slippers this morning or the pouring out your cup of coffee or whatever tea he might like to drink, what's your read on this at the end of the day?
STEPHANIE ROTH: He probably doesn't feel great about it.
I hear you full employment is good, but this isn't exactly the kind of print they were probably hoping for.
I mean, especially the household survey, that was pretty hot.
It was saw over 700,000 gains in employed workers there.
Granted it's a volatile survey, but that took the unemployment rate down 2/10.
So.
BRAD SMITH: Does it take us so tremendously off trend that it's going to have the Fed, kind of, realigning or changing their tenor in these meetings right now?
STEPHANIE ROTH: Not necessarily, but I think the market took the Fed's kind of ran with this narrative.
And I think that's going to have to get reversed to some extent, at least, after this print.
Granted the data are really volatile, this is a very seasonal month for payrolls.
But it's just not exactly what the Fed was hoping for.
JOE BRUSUELAS: Fixed income markets a bit overbought.