The United Auto Workers strike against the Big Three automakers, Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA), continues to loom as the deadline draws closer. Nathan Bomey, Axios Business Reporter & Co-author of Axios Closer newsletter, and David Madland, Center for American Progress Senior Fellow & American Worker Project Senior Adviser, join Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the potential strike and its impact on the auto industry.

Bomey says, “there’s a possibility of striking all three at the same time” and “if that happens, we would see a serious bottleneck in the auto industry.” Bomey adds, “that Tesla (TSLA) would be the winner if there’s a big strike.” The company would also “be the winner if the automakers have to agree to huge pay increases because, of course, Tesla is not unionized.” Bomey notes that “one big question after this is all over, is… when and will the UAW start to take a crack at organizing Tesla again?”

As union membership has declined over the last several years, Madland notes that although the “desire for unions is, sort of, as high now as it’s ever been,” the “law makes its very, very hard for workers to join unions and allows companies lots of tools for union-busting.”

Video Transcript

- The threat of a potential UAW strike looms large amid ongoing negotiations with the big three automakers. At a rally on Monday, President Shawn Fain of the organization promised that members will take action by any means necessary to secure a fair contract. Those strikes are making headlines across Hollywood and now potentially, the auto industry union membership has actually steadily declined in recent years to just 10% of the workforce last year. That was an all-time low.

But according to data from Cornell's School of Industrial and Labor Relations, strike activity actually increased last year. So what can we make of maybe smaller but mightier unions? We're joined now by Nathan Bomey, Axios business reporter and co-author of the Axios closer newsletter. And David Madland, Center for American Progress senior fellow and senior advisor at the American Worker Project. Guys, thanks so much for being here.

Nathan, I want to start with you. Kind of set the scene for us here as to what we are hearing from the UAW and the sort of effect that could have.

NATHAN BOMEY: Well, the UAW's newly-elected President, Shawn Fain, is a real firebrand, and he has come out swinging. He has basically said that the automakers are giving their executives exorbitant pay and compensation and that it's time for the workers to get some of that too. With about just a little over a week till the contract deadline expires, it looks like a strike is a real possibility.

- OK, and so with that strike being a possibility, are we looking at an all out strike here or is this targeting specific plants or specific operations which then could still more largely impact other areas of the manufacturing process here?

NATHAN BOMEY: So historically, the UAW will pick one automaker as a target, essentially to start the negotiations with them. And then if they can't reach a deal, they strike. And then eventually once they do reach a deal, then they use that as a pattern to negotiate with the other two.

But this time, we are hearing there's a possibility of striking all three at the same time. Sean Fein at the UAW has not ruled that out. If that happens, we would see a serious bottleneck in the auto industry.

- So to go from the specific questions here for Nathan to the sort of bigger question for David, what it feels like here is that we have these very sort of noisy work actions in the form of the UAW and the Hollywood writers and actors strikes. We've had a number of other actions involving the likes of Starbucks over the past couple of years, and yet we do see that union membership declining. So what are we to make of the current role of the union in American workers lives?

DAVID MADLAND: You're hitting, I think, on a core reality that the desire for unions is sort of as high now as it's ever been. About 70% of the public support unions and about half of the public say they would like to join a union. But as you noted, union membership is sort of near the lowest it's ever been. And that's because unfortunately, our law makes it very, very hard for workers to join unions and allows companies lots of tools for union busting. And so we're seeing this great upsurge in activity. And whether it can change corporate behavior and change the law, I think is the real open question.

- What is the perception among those represented by the unions as well? I mean, when you think about still the fees that they might have to pay in many of these instances, how has that perhaps moved their own discourse internally or among the workers being represented in one way or the other?

DAVID MADLAND: Well, union members generally support their union because it leads to higher wages, better benefits, safer workplaces, and also protections from arbitrary dismissal and discrimination. And so even though some people don't like to pay the fees, even that-- because in many states, you need to pay a fee to join-- to receive the benefits of collective bargaining. But even in states where you don't, most people covered by a union contract still pay because they see the strong benefits that everyone really receives from union contracts.

- Nathan, when we look at the case of the UAW in particular, like many other unions, it has seen membership decline, although it's also because the number of autoworkers broadly has declined in the US over the past few decades. But as you've done your reporting, I'm curious if you've gotten sort of a vibe from the union membership itself, not just leadership, about their sort of feelings around the whole situation.

NATHAN BOMEY: Well, I think there are two aspects of this. First off, 97% of UAW members did vote to authorize a strike. So essentially, basically, all of the UAW membership is saying we're OK with the strike if you, our leadership, decides that we need one.

However, on the other side, I think it's worth noting that there is a bit of a growing political disconnect between the members and the leadership because in the last two elections by the UAW's own admission, about one third of its members voted for Donald Trump. I think this was pretty unsettling for the UAW to realize in 2016 that a lot of its members weren't on the side of its historically progressive politics. And so the question for the UAW leadership is, can they maintain the support of those members when they're at the bargaining table with the automakers?

- Right, OK. So for all of these industries over the course of the year, it's been largely different. And as of right now, it seems like based on what we've heard from the conference calls, even the earnings calls from companies in Ford and GM, they're expecting this to get done. But if it does not, what type of hit to production but additionally in terms of revenue as well are we expecting could eventually come forward, Nathan?

NATHAN BOMEY: We're talking about a risk of potentially billions of dollars here, and that's why the automakers are very, very nervous. I think there's also the possibility of price increases if the contract negotiations end up with a deal that the automakers have to pass on the cost.

Just saw an analyst report this morning that said that we could see higher costs of EVs. Maybe that's what's necessary to get the workers the pay that they deserve, but it is important to note what are going to be the consequences. I think that there's a wide agreement here that Tesla would be the winner if there's a big strike, also would be the winner if the automakers have to agree to huge pay increases because of course, Tesla is not unionized.

One big question after this is all over is, when and if-- well, when and will the UAW start to take a crack at organizing Tesla again? They tried in the past, they failed. Will they try again? I think that's a really important thing to watch.