Why tariffs could cost the global economy 0.5% output by 2026

More tariffs are hitting the global market as the European Union and the United States both have targeted China. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, sits down with Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Jennifer Schonberger in Washington, D.C., to discuss how increased tariffs could weigh on the global economy.

Gourinchas sees increased tariffs and trade tensions as a major concern that could stunt global economic growth in 2025 and beyond. "Countries imposing measures or distorting trade are upwards of 3,000 of them now, compared to only 1,000 in 2019. And 2019 was not a low point," he tells Yahoo Finance.

He notes that if major markets move forward with higher tariffs against each other, trade policy uncertainty and retaliation will likely increase, weighing down the global economy. "About 0.5% of global output that would be lost by 2026 if we have this escalation in trade-distorting measures, tariffs, etc. So we're certainly concerned about that and concerned that it might hurt everyone," Gourinchas explains.

Higher tariffs could also impact the global inflation picture. He argues, "If in some countries inflation pressures increase because of tariffs, then central banks would have to tighten policy rates. In other countries, you might see the opposite. You might see a weakening of economic activity and you might not see that much price pressures. And in that situation, central banks would respond somewhat differently."

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This post was written by Melanie Riehl