Boeing shares rise after labor offer but analysts wary of worker pushback

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By Abhijith Ganapavaram, Allison Lampert and Matt McKnight

(Reuters) -Boeing shares rose 3% on Monday on hopes of an end to a crippling strike, although some analysts questioned whether a proposed labor contract unveiled over the weekend would muster enough support from the U.S. planemaker's workers.

About 33,000 workers will vote on the offer on Wednesday after a more than month-long work stoppage that has halted production of models including Boeing's best-selling 737 MAX narrowbody jets.

The vote coincides with Boeing's third-quarter results, which are expected to include a hefty loss.

The contract proposal announced on Saturday includes a 35% pay hike over four years, a $7,000 ratification bonus, a reinstated incentive plan and enhanced contributions to workers' 401(k) retirement plans, including a one-time $5,000 contribution plus up to 12% in employer contributions.

The wage increase and ratification bonus are higher than in the previous offer, which was rebuffed by workers. But the salary hikes fall short of a 40% pay rise over four years and the restoration of the traditional pension lost in 2014 demanded by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union.

Workers picketing near Boeing's 737 factory outside Seattle were pessimistic about the proposal passing.

"It's a decent contract, but it's not what we asked for," said worker Myles Sims, 37. "I've seen other jobs elsewhere that make way more starting off. Minimum wage here is about to be raised next year, and Boeing is just giving us the bare minimum for new hires."

Worker Jeffrey Dodge said he thought the strike would have been averted if Boeing had offered the 35% pay hike earlier.

"They're going to have to do a little better," Dodge said, adding "I think they are close."

Worker Michael Reed, 40, agreed the offer is better but not enough.

Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Akers, who has a bearish view on Boeing stock, said the offer may not be ratified, citing activity online that leaned negative, though not as strongly as after the first contract agreement that employees rejected.

"Our analysis of over 1,000 online comments implies a more constructive view but still not enough to pass," Akers said in a note.

JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman estimated the wage hikes might increase Boeing's costs by more than $1 billion, while Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu expects wage-related expenses at about $1.3 billion.

The latest proposal follows weeks of sometimes acrimonious discussions between Boeing and the union, whose leadership faced fury from some members after endorsing the first offer from Boeing that most workers opposed.