The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Trustmark Corporation (NASDAQ:TRMK), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously. The stock price has risen 4.9% to US$35.42 over the past week. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Trustmark from its six analysts is for revenues of US$688m in 2024 which, if met, would be a substantial 28% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 1,419% to US$3.53. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$769m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.04 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Trustmark's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for Trustmark

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 10% to US$36.80, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Trustmark's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 64% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Trustmark is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. The rising price target is a puzzle, but still - with a serious cut to this year's outlook, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Trustmark.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Trustmark analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.