Last week, you might have seen that Dollarama Inc. (TSE:DOL) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to CA$124 in the past week. Dollarama reported CA$1.4b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.77 beat expectations, being 2.1% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Dollarama

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Dollarama's twelve analysts is for revenues of CA$6.34b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 6.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 6.9% to CA$4.03. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$6.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$4.02 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 8.6% to CA$130. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Dollarama, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$138 and the most bearish at CA$125 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Dollarama's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Dollarama.