(Bloomberg) -- Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats have ruled the eastern German region of Brandenburg since reunification in 1990, but their grip on power is under threat from the far-right Alternative for Germany in Sunday’s election in the former communist state.

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The AfD has stronger support across the east than in the west and in Thuringia this month became the first party of the extreme right to win a regional election since World War II. It narrowly finished second to the conservative Christian Democrats in neighboring Saxony the same day and has led in Brandenburg in most recent opinion polls, a few percentage points ahead of the chancellor’s SPD party.

Scholz, whose governing alliance at the national level has seen its backing plunge to record lows, will likely bear the brunt of the fallout if the SPD fails to become the strongest party in the region, which surrounds the capital Berlin and is home to his Potsdam constituency.

It’s also the site of a Tesla Inc. factory that employs about 12,000 people but has proved something of a mixed blessing for locals.

Exit polls will be published at 6 p.m. local time, with preliminary results following a few hours later. Here’s what to watch:

Polls

The AfD almost certainly won’t be able to form a government even if it wins in the state — which the SPD currently runs in a coalition with the Christian Democrats and the Greens. It won’t command a majority of seats and all other parties have ruled out working with it.

Still, an AfD success and poor performances from mainstream parties would add to evidence that Germany’s political center is crumbling in some parts of the country with a little more than a year to go before the next scheduled national election.

A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll for public broadcaster ZDF published Thursday showed the SPD at 27% in Brandenburg and the AfD narrowly ahead at 28%. The CDU was at 14%, while the Greens were on 4.5%, in danger of missing the 5% threshold for getting into parliament.

The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht, or BSW, a new party of the far left formed in January, is at 13%. It might be needed to help keep the AfD out of power.

Woidke Factor

If the Social Democrats win, Scholz is unlikely to be given any credit. Dietmar Woidke, the popular SPD premier in the state for the past 11 years, sought to distance himself from the federal government during campaigning and didn’t invite Scholz to any of his rallies.