It's shaping up to be a tough period for Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROCK), which a week ago released some disappointing second-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Gibraltar Industries missed earnings this time around, with US$353m revenue coming in 5.5% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.05 also fell short of expectations by 13%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Gibraltar Industries

Following last week's earnings report, Gibraltar Industries' three analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.39b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 17% to US$4.43. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.60 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 10% to US$93.67, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Gibraltar Industries analyst has a price target of US$96.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$90.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Gibraltar Industries is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Gibraltar Industries' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 9.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Gibraltar Industries is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.