Temperatures this week have been hovering 10-35 degrees below average for early January. No part of the country seems truly safe from the cold, but the Midwest and Northeast have, not surprisingly, been hit the hardest.

So as people keep turning their thermostats up, should we be worried about higher heating bills? The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is probably not. At least not until we see proof that the deep freeze is here to stay.

For now, the wacky trend in energy prices that we’ve been seeing of late could benefit your pocket book. Most people (61% of Americans at last tally) heat their homes using natural gas. And natural gas prices are acting a bit strangely these days.

Here’s how it works: Generally, natural gas prices go up when the weather gets cold. This year, though, prices have been on the decline. This could have something to do with the fact that oil is in a free fall. (Quick recap: Oil prices are down some 50% in the past six months. OPEC has been trying to drive down world energy prices to wrestle influence back from the US, where production of shale and fracking for natural gas have created a rival supply boom.)

That means, in short, that natural gas is currently $1.43 cheaper this year than last year. The Energy Information Agency forecasts that households heating their homes with natural gas will pay 5% less this year. The downside, though, is that if things stay in deep freeze, this trend probably won’t hold. If the winter is colder than normal (specifically, EIA crunched the numbers for temperatures 10 degrees below forecasts) natural gas users will end up paying 5% more than last year.

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However, if you’re one of the Americans who doesn’t heat his or her home with natural gas, you could be in luck. Households that use oil for heat are expected to pay 15% less this year and will still save 5% in below-average temperatures. If you use propane – also derived form oil – you’re looking at 27% savings in a normal winter and will still save 15% in a deep freeze.

Households that use electric heat are the least likely to see any big price swings in their heating bill one way or another. Forecasts say you’ll save 2% in a normal winter and pay 2% more if it’s extra cold.

Oh, and if by some weird blessing of Mother Nature our winter ends up warmer than average (10 degrees above forecast, to be specific) EIA forecasts natural gas users will save 12%, oil users will save 24%, propane users will save 37% and electric users 5%.

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