Market forces rained on the parade of Theravance Biopharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:TBPH) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.

Following the downgrade, the current consensus from Theravance Biopharma's five analysts is for revenues of US$71m in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a notable 14% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 19% per share from last year to US$0.76 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$79m and losses of US$0.42 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Theravance Biopharma

The consensus price target fell 14% to US$13.20, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Theravance Biopharma's valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Theravance Biopharma's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Theravance Biopharma is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 29% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 6.7% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.5% per year. Not only are Theravance Biopharma's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of Theravance Biopharma.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Theravance Biopharma analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.