Back-to-school season is already underway as retailers like Shein, Macy’s, Walmart and Target areestablishing promotions that will last through the summer. But the season’s early kickoff has been heavily influenced by various concerns from shippers regarding the ongoing diversions of container ships around Africa, a potential labor strike at East and Gulf Coast ports and continually escalating freight rates—and bodes a similar expectation for the 2024 holiday.

Retailers have been stocking up to meet demand ahead of the traditional August-to-October peak shipping season since Lunar New Year in some cases, with inbound cargo volume at major U.S. ports in May reaching its highest level since August 2022.

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There is “modest” evidence of the early shipping continuing into June, said S&P Global Market Intelligence, with seaborne imports into the U.S. rising by 1.7 percent in the month versus May. The firm says a normal shipping season would suggest a dip in June, like the previous two years, before picking up again in July.

“What we see right now is that we have a peak season at a moment where it’s not supposed to happen,” Goetz Alebrand, head of ocean freight Americas at DHL Global Forwarding, told Sourcing Journal in late May. “All that is right now pushed forward, and we believe it’s going to carry through until at least end of August or early September because of the of the ILA topic here in North America.”

However, given that the excess imports have been flowing into the U.S. for months, ports should still be able to manage the next wave of cargo once the typical peak season begins next month.

“It’s not that we think that on top of peak season, there will be another peak season,” Alebrand said. “It’s just a prolongation, that we will have a relatively elevated demand cycle for a longer period of time that we are used to.”

Gene Seroka, executive director at the Port of Los Angeles, said during a press briefing Wednesday that the port is already seeing fall fashion, Halloween and year-end holiday products moving through the supply chain.

According to Seroka, the port expects robust imports in July, noting that there are 63 ships en route to the Los Angeles and Long Beach port complex, versus 52 to 55 typically.

During the briefing, Matt Priest, president and CEO of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), said the footwear industry is “bringing product in a little bit earlier” for the holiday season, and that brands are “trying not to be a victim of these historic and seasonal spikes and run-on demand.”