Now you see them, now you don’t.
For the first time this year, retail store closures have outpaced store openings, according to data from Coresight Research.
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The firm uses a weekly tracker to follow how many stores companies plan to—or confirm that they will—close. This week’s tracker included the announcement that Conn’s HomePlus would close nearly all of its stores and that Big Lots plans to close nearly 300 stores in the 2024 calendar year.
John Harmon, Coresight’s managing director of technology research, said the firm projected earlier this year that the industry would see 5,500 new stores open and 4,000 stores close. However, just over eight months into the year, store closures—planned or confirmed—stand at 4,548, while store openings have come in at 4,426.
Store openings have remained nearly at parity with 2023 openings, with less than 0.1 percent change. Closures, however, have increased by 31.4 percent year on year.
Harmon noted that part of the reason for above-projected store closures is bankruptcies.
“Bankruptcies are hard to predict. We have tools to identify which companies might be likely to file…but bankruptcies are the wild card. They really do change the [closure] totals a lot,” he said.
Conn’s, the furniture and home retailer, filed for bankruptcy last month and recently announced it would close over 500 of its stores, which account for more than 10 percent of the total number of retail closures Coresight has tracked this year. Other bankruptcies that required major store closings this year include Rue21, Express and 99 Cents Only Stores.
Cumulatively, those three bankruptcies saw the closure of over 900 stores, or about 20 percent of the total store closures this year.
At the moment, Harmon said, Coresight does not have plans to revise its 2024 projections. Though the bankruptcies have caused a surge in the number of closures for the year, Harmon said the coast is far from clear for retailers not affected by looming money problems.
Even as many continue to downsize from being overstored, new challenges continue to arise, he said.
“There are several pressures on retailers. One, consumers are watching their budgets and economizing. There’s always a threat from e-commerce, but there are new threats, new competition from Shein and Temu in apparel that’s even caused Amazon to take notice and talk about direct-from-China products,” he said. “And then, of course, you have social media. Gen Z is a big user of TikTok; that’s where they get their inspiration. Shopping on social media is gaining share. It’s attractive—it’s right, it’s right there, where you’re looking.”