No flying colors, but markets just might pass their stress test

Global policy makers across the globe did not set out in recent months to subject financial markets to a grueling stress test.

But that’s been one effect of the messy, sometimes clumsy, potentially decisive maneuvers of government-empowered financial authorities that have been dominating the news.

These include European leaders’ attempt to impose terms on Greece for more support; the improvised yet powerful effort by Chinese authorities to support their stock market; the Fed’s complicated march to a rate increase; and even the international negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.

Each of these deliberations has whipped specific markets around, in turn. As relates to the largest equity market in the world here in the U.S., though, the impact has been muted.

The initial response to the fragile agreement by Greek leaders to accept stringent terms for a new support package has been a quick but restrained bounce in the S&P 500 (^GSPC). Quick moves that have ultimately been restrained by a locked trading range – that’s been the story of the past several weeks, and even months.

This makes sense, given that the U.S. stock market had hardly registered severe fear and losses over the course of the bruising Greek negotiations – and indeed nothing is finally settled as far as Greece’s ultimate fate as a Euro currency bloc member. Similarly, the continued rebound of the Shanghai stock market overnight isn’t driving a more powerful rally here, because U.S. equities have been mostly insulated from the wild moves there, both up and down.

Yet the ominous worldwide news flow across the board has served to depress American investor sentiment beyond the point that one would expect just based on the modest losses in stocks here.

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The S&P finished last week at 2076 – a level first reached last Dec. 22. Comparing other market conditions from then versus those of today can offer clues to market expectations from here.

Unlike on Dec. 22 - when this level was an all-time high and optimism was running high – today this level represents a retrenchment a couple of percent below an all-time high. Investor psychology, by several measures, is quite anxious and underneath the indexes stocks have recently been more oversold than at any time since the sharp October market break.

This is all to be welcomed. It’s good to see worry build over “what-ifs” when ultimately the market trend has hardly changed. It doesn’t mean this little stress test has been passed for sure, but the early scoring is modestly encouraging.