The S&P 500 (^GSPC) briefly reached an all-time high of 5,000 points ahead of Thursday's close, to the glee of many investors. Once this index reaches officially reaches this peak, what comes next? How will markets behave moving forward?
Huntington Private Bank Director of Wealth Strategy Dan Griffith sits down with Yahoo Finance to discuss the S&P 500's intraday all-time high and what it entails for broader markets.
"We are thinking there is a potential of a slowdown, we're at 50/50 as far as the likelihood of a recession in 2024. We've been that way for the, probably past 2 years frankly and it's been a wonderful position to be in. The market kinda was a little less optimistic than we were and now it's kind of coming the other way..." Griffith comments. "At the end of the day, we think if the [Federal Reserve] is going to maybe lower rates a couple times as the weather gets a little warmer here, probably 3 times is what our guess is, and if we are going to have a slow down it's going to be a pretty modest one. "
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JOSH LIPTON: The S&P 500 edging higher on the day, but the index did briefly hit that 5,000 mark for the first time ever. The index continuing its upward trend here since the start of the year, boosted by economic data and upbeat earnings. Here to unpack what that 5,000 mark will do to the economy is Dan Griffith, Huntington Private Bank, Director of Wealth Strategy.
Dan, it is good to see you. So we were knocking right on that door there. We like big round numbers, right? You said something interesting, though, Dan, though, which is you think actually, this is going to be-- I think you put it like, it's going to be the year when investors exhale a bit in the stock market. What did you mean by that?
- I think that's the case. I think a lot of-- one of the themes for the year is going to be that we're range bound a little bit. There's a lot of optimism but it's going to be a lot of cautious optimism. 0 And we see in the past when we hit these big round numbers, the market will test it a little bit and kind of go back and go back up again. And I think that will probably be the case here, too.
JULIE HYMAN: Why do you think that is? I mean, as we-- we have been talking about this theme recently that the backdrop looks strong, right. We've got earnings that have just come in, beat estimates at a faster rate than they have in recent quarters, economic growth keeps beating estimates and, you know, stocks keep climbing to records. So what could go wrong exactly?
- Well, I think I agree with you that a lot of the fundamentals are pointing in the right direction. And I mean, if you look at what the core fundamentals are that we're watching most closely, there are a lot of what you mentioned, Julie, we're looking at what does unemployment look like?
Will we continue to get good numbers we did earlier this week, today, and we did a couple of weeks ago? We look at what core inflationary numbers are. Those continue to look very positive. Probably not down to the 2% that the fed wants but those look really solid. You know, consumer confidence remains solid even in the manufacturing sector, which we deal with a lot with at Huntington.
They continue to look solid as well and there's a lot of optimism both in the overall numbers and as we talk to clients individually, they express optimism too. So I think it's really a matter of what-- like you said before, what could possibly go wrong. I think it's more along the lines of we want to make sure that we don't think that it's going to go incredibly right, right, that we want to manage optimism. And that's why range bound is the theme, as I said before.
JOSH LIPTON: And as you try, Dan, to sort of gauge where the economy is headed over 2024, you're trying to know is it soft landing or recession, how are you gauging that? What's the data? What are the financial metrics you're watching?
- I think it's-- a lot of them are the ones that we just described earlier, and I think-- we're thinking that there's a potential of a slowdown. We're at 50/50 as far as a recession-- likelihood of recession in 2024. We've been that way for the last probably two years, frankly, and it's been, you know, a wonderful position to be in.
The market was a little less optimistic than we were and now it's kind of come the other way and met us where we are at Huntington. But at the end of the day, I think we think if the fed's going to maybe lower rates a couple times as the weather gets a little warmer here, probably three times is what we're guessing-- our guess is.
Then if we are going to have a slowdown, it's going to be a pretty modest one, and we're still optimistic about what the future holds as far as the market is concerned.
JULIE HYMAN: What are you hearing from clients? I mean, as you said, you deal with a lot of manufacturing clients, you're in the private banks, you're talking to wealthy individuals.
- Yes.
- What's the sentiment like?
- Well, I think a lot of them are concerned, right. A lot of people are concerned about, hey, we've had a really good market, particularly last year, you know. Everyone was worried about a recession. But what I hear from clients is that there are a lot more prepared than they were. Whether it's public companies, or private companies, a lot of them tighten their belts in 2022 to prepare for what they thought was an impending recession in 2023.
And of course, as we all know, that didn't happen. So I think a lot of them begin 2024 with things like interest rates baked in a little bit more. They just begin 2024 a lot more prepared for a little bit of volatility and frankly, with balance sheets that look pretty good, so it's a very cautious optimism, but optimism nonetheless.