Profit warning, inside information: UPM lowers its outlook due to lower deliveries in most businesses and decreased pulp prices

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HELSINKI, Oct. 16, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- UPM lowers its outlook for 2024 and releases its preliminary Q3 2024 results. During the second half of the year, UPM's earnings have improved, however less than earlier expected. Comparable EBIT in Q3 2024 increased by 32% to EUR 291 million from Q3 2023, and 17% for the first nine months compared to last year. Comparable EBIT in Q4 2024 is expected to be on similar level or increase from Q4 2023 (EUR 323 million). Therefore, UPM's comparable EBIT in full-year 2024 is expected to be on similar level or increase from 2023.

During the second half of the year, market demand for UPM's products has been weaker than expected, leading to lower delivery volumes in most businesses.

On the positive side, the new UPM Paso de los Toros pulp mill has operated in full production since its first maintenance shutdown in June. However, the weakened pulp market and the high wood cost in Finland had a negative impact on the UPM Fibres business.

Earlier, UPM expected its full-year 2024 comparable EBIT to increase from 2023, and its H2 2024 comparable EBIT to be higher than in H1 2024. See the full previous outlook text below for reference.

UPM releases its preliminary results for Q3 2024. Sales decreased by 2% to EUR 2,521 million (2,584 million in Q3 2023). Comparable EBIT in Q3 2024 increased by 32% to EUR 291 million, 11,5% of sales (220 million, 8,5%).

UPM will release its Interim Report Q3 2024 on 29 October 2024.

Sales (EURm)

Q3/2024

Q2/2024

Q3/2023

Q1-Q3/2024

Q1-Q3/2023

2023

UPM Fibres

943

922

817

2,727

2,263

3,044

UPM Energy

125

130

142

465

435

628

UPM Raflatac

374

397

367

1,181

1,118

1,485

UPM Specialty Papers

335

367

357

1,099

1,111

1,485

UPM Communication Papers

751

711

807

2,265

2,799

3,598

UPM Plywood

103

120

96

321

331

422

Other operations

141

172

251

466

610

802

Internal sales

-252

-272

-251

-816

-735

-1,000

Eliminations and reconciliation

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

Sales, total

2,521

2,546

2,584

7,707

7,929

10,460

Comparable EBIT (EURm)

Q3/2024

Q2/2024

Q3/2023

Q1-Q3/2024

Q1-Q3/2023

2023

UPM Fibres

190

99

-18

397

92

116

UPM Energy

22

16

30

124

139

182

UPM Raflatac

24

39

33

112

78

103

UPM Specialty Papers

22

41

37

114

46

98

UPM Communication Papers

51

35

96

165

262

462

UPM Plywood

9

16

9

35

49

56

Other operations

-23

-55

26

-114

0

-14

Eliminations and reconciliation

-4

-8

7

-28

24

8

Comparable EBIT, total

291

182

220

806

689

1,013

% of sales

11.5

7.2

8.5

10.5

8.7

9.7

Previous outlook for 2024 for reference:

UPM's full-year 2024 comparable EBIT is expected to increase from 2023, supported by higher delivery volumes, the ramp-up and optimisation of the UPM Paso de los Toros pulp mill, and lower fixed costs. Demand for many UPM products is expected to gradually improve as the destocking seen in 2023 is over. The market conditions for renewable fuels are expected to be weaker than last year. UPM continues to manage margins and take actions to reduce variable and fixed costs.

In H2 2024, comparable EBIT is expected to be higher than in H1 2024. This improvement is expected to come especially from UPM Fibres, with the full pulp capacity available and pulp price levels starting at a higher level than at the start of the year. There are no major maintenance shutdowns scheduled for the company in H2 2024, whereas H1 2024 was impacted by unusually high maintenance activity and political strikes in Finland. The timing of the annual energy-related refunds is expected to support the result in Q4.

UPM, Media Relations
Mon-Fri 9:00-16:00 EEST
tel. +358 40 588 3284
[email protected]

UPM

We deliver renewable and responsible solutions and innovate for a future beyond fossils across six business areas: UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers and UPM Plywood. As the industry leader in responsibility, we are committed to the UN Business Ambition for 1.5°C and the science-based targets to mitigate climate change. We employ 16,600 people worldwide and our annual sales are approximately EUR 10.5 billion. Our shares are listed on Nasdaq Helsinki Ltd. UPM Biofore - Beyond fossils. www.upm.com

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