Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ:DJT) has taken off in the market, with its stock surging by more than 220% since hitting rock-bottom in late September. The catalyst? Former President Donald Trump's mounting lead in the 2024 election polls. With Trump holding a dominant 57% stake in the company, this recent rally has boosted his stake to nearly $4.5 billion, underscoring how closely his personal fortune tracks the performance of Trump Media's shares.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with DJT.

However, this run-up is far from a guaranteed win. Market experts like Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, caution that Trump Media's stock could plummet to zero if Trump loses the election, as he'd likely be forced to sell shares to cover legal costs. On the flip side, a Trump victory could sustain Trump Media's allure, though the stock may experience sharp sell-offs post-election as investors rush to lock in gains. The stakes here are highTrump Media's price is driven more by Trump's political fortunes than by traditional financial fundamentals, making it a bold move for investors.

With the election just days away, Trump Media sits at a crossroads. Either the stock rides higher on a potential Trump win, or it tumbles if his odds fade. For investors, Trump Media represents a gamble with the potential for high returns but equally high risksproof that in this arena, sentiment and timing are everything.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.