In theory, investors can breathe easier heading into the fourth quarter, when markets typically post the strongest returns of the year. To draw this conclusion, we analyzed data collected on S&P 500 performance from 1980-2022. By our calculations, the quarter has generated average gains of 4.8%, compared to gains of 2.3%, 2.9%, and 0.4% for 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q, respectively. The fourth quarter is consistent as well, with a "win percentage" of 82%. This means that stock returns are positive in the quarter four years out of five, and compares to winning percentages of 67% in 1Q and 2Q and 62% in 3Q. But to be fair, the 4Q has posted its share of clunkers. In 1987, which included Black Friday, stocks fell 23% during the period; while in 2008 they sold off 18%, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and as the U.S. economy plunged into a deep recession. As recently as 2018, stocks slid 14% in the final quarter when trade wars intensified and the Federal Reserve raised rates. But last year, when stocks were still in the early stages of the current bull market, 4Q performance was outstanding (up 12%). This year, it is not unreasonable to expect a slow start, given concerns over inflation, a potential economic slowdown, and the upcoming presidential election. Even so, we expect 2024 to be a positive year for stock returns. Our bull-case scenario forecast for year-end S&P 500, published in July, was 6,000.

In this edition, trucking sector keeps on trucking; soft landing in sight for US economic outlook; a world of possibilities for Universal Music Group; and Accenture Plc, Koninklijke Philips NV, and Smartsheet.

Based in Dublin, Ireland, Accenture is a global management consulting, technology services and outsourcing company. The two main lines of business are consulting and outsourcing. The company is also organized along five key industry verticals served, including Communications, Media & Technology; Financial Services; Products; Health & Public Service; and Resources. In FY23, approximately 47% of revenue was generated in the Americas, 33% in EMEA, and 20% in growth markets.

Based in Dublin, Ireland, Accenture is a global management consulting, technology services and outsourcing company. The two main lines of business are consulting and outsourcing. The company is also organized along five key industry verticals served, including Communications, Media & Technology; Financial Services; Products; Health & Public Service; and Resources. In FY23, approximately 47% of revenue was generated in the Americas, 33% in EMEA, and 20% in growth markets.