Not only Wall Street but the entire nation will continue to monitor developments this week related to the attempted assignation of former President Donald Trump. In other news, earnings season moves into high gear and Fed Chairman Powell speaks publicly again. Wall Street will continue to ponder if a first interest rate cut is likely in September, as the case for such a move seems to be building. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the Nasdaq was higher by 0.3%. Year to date, the Dow is higher by 6%, the S&P is up 18%, and the Nasdaq is higher by 23%. On the economic calendar, Chairman Powell speaks on Monday in Washington, D.C. and his remarks will be telecast live. He spoke on Capitol Hill last week, but those comments were before key data showed inflation slowing on the consumer side. On Tuesday, Retail Sales data is due. On Wednesday, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization all will be updated, as will Leading Economic Indicators on Thursday. On the earnings calendar, the new reporting season kicks into high gear this week. On Monday, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock report. On Tuesday, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial, UnitedHealth, and J.B. Hunt Transport. On Wednesday, Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines, and U.S. Bancorp. On Thursday, Netflix, Taiwan Semiconductor, Abbot Labs, and Domino's Pizza. And on Friday, American Express, Travelers, and Halliburton. Only 5% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far. General expectations are for 8%-12% earnings growth for 2Q. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% growth in 4Q23. At Argus, we forecast EPS growth for all of 2024 coming in at roughly 8%-9%. Last week, there was good news on inflation. CPI was 3.0% for June, down from 3.3% in May. Core CPI dipped to 3.3% from 3.4% in the prior month. On the producer side, the news was mixed. PPI picked up to 2.6% in June from 2.4% in May, but core PPI slowed to 3.1% from 3.3% in the prior month. Mortgage rates fell to 6.89% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices rose a penny to $3.49 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 2.0%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 3.01% for July CPI. The next Fed rate decision comes on July 31, with odds at 6% for a cut. By mid-September, there is a big jump in the odds to 96%. This spike follows the good news on inflation last week and the jobs report the week prior. By November 7, the odds are at 99%, and for December 18, odds call for a second cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The 2024 Market So Far

In 2023, the S&P 500 climbed almost 24%, skewed heavily by a handful of tech and consumer stocks that recovered from the pandemic. The top-10 stocks in the Argus Universe advanced, on average, 180%, while the top-20 rose 140%. The average stock rose 17%, and the median stock advanced 7%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 20%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 8%. Will investors continue to favor growth in 2024? Will small-caps reverse their recent thrust as the risk of recession puts a premium on clean balance sheets? Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps and international stocks, valuations remain depressed -- and these group looks to offer value into 2024 as market breadth likely widens. Below are the top-10 performers from the Argus Universe last year, with representatives in six of the 11 major sectors, as well as the bottom-five performers.

The stock market entered one of its historically most-bullish times of the year on Friday, 12/22 -- specially, the last five days of the old year and the first two days of the new year. When there is not a 'Santa Clause rally' over those days, it is deemed to be bearish for the new year. We find it odd that these very short periods of time are thought to have substantive predictive value for an entire year. Yet these periods always grab headlines, as data crunchers love to see their names in lights.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

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This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell on Friday morning following the start of a UAW strike against the Big Three automakers, which could lower inventories and raise prices for both cars and parts. The strike is the first to target all three companies at once. However, it is not a full-scale walkout and will initially involve less than 13,000 of the UAW's roughly 150,000 members. On the earnings front, Adobe shares fell 4% despite solid fiscal 3Q results amid concerns about soft sales in the current fourth quarter. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil traded near $90 per barrel, while gold rose $19 to $1952 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks edged lower on Tuesday morning on more disappointing data in China. The Caixin China Services PMI was 51.8 in August, reflecting the smallest rate of growth in eight months. New orders growth slowed and exports fell, while employment rose. The U.S. Treasury yields rose. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq was down less than 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $87 per barrel and gold fell $15 to $1952.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Monday Tee Up: All Eyes on Last Week and Next Week

Stocks fell on Thursday amid mixed earnings reports and more signs of a slowing economy. The Conference Board said that its Leading Economic Index fell 1.2% in March to 108.4, the lowest level since November 2020. Housing market data was also weak, as existing home sales fell a greater-than-expected 2.4% in March, and weekly unemployment benefit claims pointed to a gradually tightening labor market. On the earnings front, Tesla shares dropped nearly 10% after the automaker reported disappointing first-quarter earnings and raised investor concerns about price cuts and margin pressure. AT&T also fell sharply after reporting slower subscriber growth and weak free cash flow. The Dow fell 0.33%, the

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Monday morning following yesterday's announcement that UBS would purchase embattled Credit Suisse in a deal arranged by Swiss regulators. The $3.2 billion purchase price represented a sharp discount to the market value of Credit Suisse after the close on Friday and sent CS shares down more than 50%, while UBS rose 4%. The deal helped to lift major U.S. financial stocks, including Citigroup, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase. The Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $66 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1974 per ounce.

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On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, which was expected. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remains steadfast in his intent to keep the brake pedal on the floor and doesn't see the Fed cutting rates until they are confident inflation is moving down to 2%. Expectations for the funds rate rose to 5.1% (by the end of next year).

Stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday morning amid continued concerns about Fed rate hikes and a potential recession. Campbell Soup shares rose after the company topped fiscal 1Q revenue and earnings estimates, while Carvana shares plunged more than 30% after an analyst downgrade that warned of an increased risk of bankruptcy for the used car retailer. The Dow was flat, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil fell 2% to $73 per barrel, while gold traded near $1794 per ounce.

The relationship of NYSE new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows can be a useful gauge of market breadth. It gives us clues about the strength or weakness of a bull or a bear market, as well as bullish and bearish divergences at tops and bottoms. The first year of a cyclical/secular bull market generally is when we see the greatest number -- as well as the highest percentage -- of new highs. For bear markets, the greatest number of new lows -- as well as the largest percentage of lows -- occurs near the bottom of the bear.

Yesterday, we talked about weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index (USD). Today, we'll look at some of the possible implications of a weakening greenback. The intraday peak for USD was 114.75 on September 28, and then the greenback saw a drop to 110 on October 4, a pop to 114 last Friday, and a quick decline to 109.50 on Wednesday. While the decline since last week is large, the dollar has traced out only a minor lower high and lower low. With the drop, the USD has slightly broken trendline support off the lows since February and has fallen under its 50-day moving average. It also fell below its 10-week exponential average for the first time since early this year. These breaks are not large enough to declare an end to the uptrend just yet. But, as we have been saying, there are many reasons to expect some possible corrective activity from the greenback.

Log yet was another bad week for stocks, as the major indices all dropped below their June bear-market lows last week. Coming into the week, two economically sensitive areas, the Dow Transports (TRAN) and the Philly Semiconductor Index (SOX), were already at new bear-market lows.

Stocks were higher on Thursday morning after Fed Chair Powell emphasized that he is committed to fighting inflation, leading to expectations that the central bank will raise rates by 75 basis points at the next policy meeting. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly declined to 222,000 unemployment claims, against estimates for 246,000 claims. Crude oil rose 2% to $83.29 per barrel, while gold fell to $1718 per ounce. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq was up 0.8%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The stock market had another good run last week, as FOMO (fear of missing out) seems to be in high gear. Most investors, both pros and individuals, were sitting with little equity exposure at the June lows. Can you blame them? The market was ugly, the news was frightening, yields and commodities were surging, inflation was roaring, Fedspeak was getting more aggressive, and worries about the economy and EPS were out of control. So what happened?

All of the major stock indices posted decent gains last week, despite Friday's ugly reversal after SNAP's quarterly report led the stock lower by 39%. That news created major weakness in internet stocks, which fell 5.7% on the day. META plunged 7.6%, GOOGL got clocked for 5.7%, PINS cascaded 13.5%, and BIDU and SPOT fell over 3%. At the end of the day, the Communications Services Sector (XLC), which is 9% of the S&P 500, fell 3.5%

June was ugly for the stock market, and followed the bad months of January, February, and April. The first and second quarters of 2022 were down -- and for the S&P 500, it was the worst first half of the year since 1970.

Stocks stormed back after the Fed's decision to raise the fed funds rate by 75 basis points (bps), a move that was floated to the WSJ on Monday. It would have been interesting if the Fed had not shown their hand and still raised by 75 bps. Investors have been worried (and we have talked about this since last year) that the Fed was far (really far) behind the curve, so this move finally shows some grit. For many, many months, the whole Treasury curve has been screaming for the Fed to get in gear -- and it appears that message was finally heard.

Stocks recovered from early losses on Thursday morning following new employment data and lower sales and earnings guidance from Microsoft, which cited the impact of the strong U.S. dollar. Microsoft shares fell 2%. Hewlett-Packard Enterprise also fell 6% after posting disappointing fiscal second-quarter earnings. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $116 per barrel, while gold rose $23 to $1872 per ounce.

Sentiment is increasingly bearish, from market professionals to small investors. The five-day CBOE equity-only put/call (P/C) jumped to 0.76 on May 12, the highest reading since the correction started. The good news, though, is that it is not near prior peaks during corrections/bear markets (when it has reached 0.85 to over 1.00). The smallest option traders spent 30% or more of their volume buying put options to open. They also spent more on put premiums than on call premiums. Both measures are very rare -- and most times when this happens, the market is higher over the next year.

The Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research continues to reflect improving sentiment, having recently moved into the neutral zone (from bearish) for the first time since October 2020. As of this week, the index sits at -12.62, its strongest reading since September 2020. While only recently neutral, current sentiment from this long-term (six months) barometer is in stark contrast to the extremely bearish readings seen in early July 2021, when the index was at its most-bearish level since it was created in 1987. Elsewhere, the volume of insider transactions remains strong, with this being a third consecutive week of over 1,800 insider buy and sell orders that meet the criteria for inclusion in Vickers' Weekly Insider Report.

Uncertain End to (Almost Certainly) a Good Stock Year

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, led by the Energy and Industrial sectors. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 340,000 for the week ended August 28, down from 354,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 345,000. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose nearly $2 to $70 per barrel, while gold traded near $1811 per ounce.

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