In this edition, Grab Holdings worth grabbing now; examining medical-device makers' moat; a hard look at software makers' moat; and Vesync, Macy's, and Travelers Companies.

In this edition, Grab Holdings worth grabbing now; examining medical-device makers' moat; a hard look at software makers' moat; and Vesync, Macy's, and Travelers Companies.

Monday Tee Up: Second Half, Third Quarter, Fourth of July Markets are closed Wednesday afternoon and on Thursday for the Fourth of July, then come back to the broad and always-informative jobs report due on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all ended last week flat. But the indices saw sold gains to close out the first half of the year, with the Dow higher by 4%, the S&P up 14%, and the Nasdaq popping 18%. On the economic calendar, Wall Street will be watching for that jobs report due on Friday. In May, Nonfarm Payrolls printed at 272,000 and the Unemployment Rate was 4.0%. At Argus, we see payrolls softening to 175,000 and unemployment inching up to 4.1% for June. Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja offered the following thoughts. 'This week's employment report will help to answer our biggest question about the U.S. economy. Is recent softness in consumer spending the start of a meaningful slowdown or is spending just normalizing after a strong run? If payrolls come in near our estimate of 175,000, it will be a sign that the job market remains healthy and consumers should have spending power with back-to-school and the holidays on the horizon.' Elsewhere, on Monday, Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing are due. On Tuesday, the Job Openings report is out and Fed Chairman Powell gives a speech in Portugal. On Wednesday, the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be released, while the ADP Employment Report and data on the U.S. Trade Deficit hit the tape. Last week, inflation data moved in the right direction (down). Both PCE and Core PCE slowed to 2.6% for June. PCE was 2.7% for May and Core PCE was 2.8%. Mortgage rates dipped further below the 7% mark, hitting 6.86% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices are still at $3.43 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and predicts expansion of 2.2%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator does not have its July forecast out yet. The next Fed rate decision is on July 31, with odds for a rate cut at 10%. In mid-September, odds pop to 60%; on November 7, they are 77%; and for December 18, they are at 94%. Argus believes the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. We forecast of two rate cuts in 2024 and two in 2025.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

March 4, 2024 Monday Tee Up: Jobs, Powell, COST

Stocks rose on Friday morning as investors weighed new comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at Spelman College in Atlanta, Mr. Powell warned that it would be 'premature to conclude with confidence' that the Fed had completed its rate hike cycle, or to speculate on the timing of rate cuts. Mr. Powell also reiterated that the central bank was 'prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.' Meanwhile, manufacturing data was weaker than expected, as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index showed contraction for the 13th straight month. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing PMI held steady at 46.7 in November, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 47.6. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel, while gold rose $21 to $2079 per ounce.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday morning as investors weighed new GDP and employment data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in 2Q, down from its previous estimate of 2.4% and below the Reuters consensus, which also called for 2.4% growth. Employment data pointed to a cooling labor market. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 177,000 jobs in August, down from 371,000 in July and below the consensus estimate of 195,000. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $81.50 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1974 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Thursday as investors weighed weekly employment data and looked ahead to next week's Fed meeting. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see a 74% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, down from about 80% a week ago. By contrast, the European Central Bank is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points next week. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 261,000 for the week ended June 3. The reading was the highest since October 2021 and well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 235,000. The Dow rose 0.50%, the S&P 0.62%, and the Nasdaq 1.02%. Crude oil traded near $71 per barrel, while gold rose to $1980 per ounce.

In this edition, Crane cleared for takeoff; openings in apparel; CDMOs vital to health of healthcare industry; and Valero Energy, Pinterest, and Mirvac Group.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, led by declines in the Industrial and Energy sectors. Employment data pointed to a cooling labor market. In its monthly JOLTS survey, the Labor Department said that U.S. job openings fell to 9.9 million on the last day of February from a revised 10.6 million a month earlier. The reading was below the Reuters consensus of 10.4 million and the lowest since May 2021. U.S. factory orders also fell 0.7% in February, the second straight monthly decline. The consensus estimate had called for a slightly smaller decline of 0.5%. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $80 per barrel, while gold jumped $39 to $2039 per ounce.

In this edition, global oil inventories face future; feeling the internet's backbone; and initiating coverage of Qualys; and Lithium Americas, Bausch & Lomb and Macy's.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday morning after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress, said that interest rates were likely to rise more than previously expected. Mr. Powell said that the process of lowering inflation still had 'a long way to go' to reach the Fed's target rate of 2% and that it was likely to be 'bumpy.' The Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell nearly 3% to $78 per barrel, while gold dropped $31 to trade near $1824 per ounce.

Stocks fell again on Thursday morning amid earnings reports from Procter & Gamble and Alcoa, and new employment and housing market data. The Labor Department reported that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 190,000 for the week ended January 14, down from 205,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 214,000. Housing data was slightly stronger than expected. Overall housing starts fell 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.382 million units in December, but topped the consensus forecast of 1.359 million. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil rose 1% to $80.50 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1921 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid new GDP and employment data. Investors also awaited a speech from Jerome Powell that could provide more clues about the pace of future Fed rate hikes. The Commerce Department, in its second estimate, said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.9% annualized rate in 3Q, up from its prior estimate of 2.6% growth and from a 0.6% decline in the second quarter. Employment data was weaker than expected. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies created 127,000 jobs in November, down from 239,000 in October and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil rose 3% to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1765 per ounce.

Stocks were higher Friday morning as the August jobs report showed the economy added 315,000 jobs, compared to the projected 300,000. However, the gain was far less than the 526,000 jobs added in July and the unemployment rate actually rose to 3.7%. Analysts had predicted the rate to stay flat, as the labor force participation rate jumped from 62.1% to 62.4%. The Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.1%. Crude oil rose 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1726 per ounce.

After several weeks of broadly bullish sentiment from corporate insiders, a divergence has appeared in the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research. NYSE insiders have pulled back from their recent buying spree, sending Vickers' NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio into cautious territory, with a reading of 3.25 on a scale where anything over 2.50 is bearish and anything below 2.00 is bullish. On the flipside, insiders on the tech-heavy Nasdaq are still all in, marking their fifth consecutive week of bullish activity with a one-week reading of 1.84.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell again on Tuesday morning amid continued war concerns, as Russian forces moved closer to Kyiv and launched rocket attacks on civilian targets in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. U.S. manufacturing data was positive. The Institute for Supply Management said that its national factory index rose to 58.6 in February, up from 57.6 in January and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 58.0. The Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil jumped to more than $103 per barrel, while gold traded near $1928 per ounce.

Investors wrapped up a quiet final week in 2021 with a modest loss for the S&P 500. But that hardly dented a strong year for stocks, when the S&P 500 climbed almost 27%. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage rose 24% during the quarter, and the median stock advanced 36%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 28%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 15%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2021? Will small-caps reverse their recent weak trend? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks to resume outperformance over time. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps, the promise of the vaccine is encouraging for these companies, which typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are thus more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed, and this group looks to offer value into 2022.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy statement and a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The central bank is widely expected to announce a more accelerated tapering program, which could set the stage for interest rate hikes early next year. Retail sales were weaker than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in November, down from 1.8% in October and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 0.8% growth. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $70 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1769 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning amid continued uncertainty about the impact of the new Omicron variant, including its ability to evade vaccines and force a new round of lockdowns. Moderna CEO Bancel noted that she expects the current vaccine would be less effective against the Omicron variant. Fed Chair Powell, in remarks made before the Senate Banking Committee said that due to rising inflation, the central bank may speed up the pace of tapering. The Dow fell 1.3%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil fell 4% to $67 per barrel, while gold traded near $1781 per ounce.

Due to a difficult September, in which the S&P 500 fell 4.7%, 3Q21 was barely positive for stocks, with the major benchmark index increasing only 0.6%. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage fell 1.7% during the quarter, and the median stock dropped 1.4%. The average BUY-rated stock slipped 0.9%, while the average HOLD-rated stock declined 3.7%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2021? Will small-caps reverse their recent weak trend? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks to resume their outperformance over time, and think this may be the one-in-five years that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps, the promise of the vaccine is encouraging for these companies, which typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are thus more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed, and this group looks to offer value into 2022.