The back-to-school shopping season has just ended. In a blink, we'll be shopping for the holidays. That's should add up to a lot of shopping - but we'll see how secure consumers are feeling about their finances. Shopping patterns offer great insight into the state of consumers, who are the backbone of the U.S. economy (accounting for two-thirds of GDP). It's still a little early for some of the bigger industry groups to put out their holiday estimates, but we do have some data points to consider. Overall, the National Retail Federation expects retail sales to increase 2.5%-3.5% for the entire year. Stastista expects a 4% increase in holiday sales for 2024 compared to 2023. eMarketer forecasts a healthy 4.8% rise in holiday sales compared to last year. Salesforce predicts a 2% increase in 2024 holiday sales, which is still growing but at a slower pace than the 3% logged last year. In sum, consumer spending growth could be between 2%-5% this holiday period. Meanwhile, Forbes notes the following particulars about this upcoming holiday season: 1) it is shortened, with only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas; 2) past presidential election years have shown a dip in spending leading up to and following the election; and 3) Walmart and Amazon account for roughly 38% of total retail growth, presenting a challenge for other retailers. The following is a list of BUY-rated stocks in Argus' Universe of Coverage. These represent companies that are leaders in the retail industry. Some of these stocks are also in various Argus portfolios.

Markets are flat at midday, though the Nasdaq is making a push higher. Calm waters on a Monday feels good after last week's turbulence. It is a busy week. On Wednesday, CPI data comes out. We see July matching June. That's 3.0% for overall inflation and 3.1% for Core inflation, which takes out energy and food prices. Thursday will be important for signals on how consumers are holding up. Retail Sales data is due and earnings from mega-giant retailer, Walmart.

The underlying fundamentals of the housing market remain strong. Still, mortgage rates above 7% are pushing prospective buyers to the sidelines and could turn housing from being a contributor to 2024 economic growth to being a drag unless the economy gets rate relief. Homebuilder confidence declined for the first time since November 2023, according to the May National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. "The market has slowed down since mortgage rates increased and this has pushed many potential buyers back to the sidelines," NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said after mortgage rates topped 7% for a fourth consecutive week. Other industry executives see strong drivers of long-term demand. "While it appears interest rates will remain higher for slightly longer, the market continues to remain massively underbuilt and pent-up demand is only being exacerbated," said Nicholas Fink, CEO of Fortune Brands Innovations, whose products include Moen faucets, Therma Tru doors, and Master Locks. Based on the May 16 GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed, residential fixed investment is expected to make a small positive contribution to 2Q GDP, but there are risks from new data that looks lackluster. The Commerce Department reported April Housing Starts of 1.36 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from 1.37 million year earlier. This morning, we expect the National Association of Realtors to report April Existing Home Sales of 4.20 million (SAAR), down from 4.22 million in April 2023. Tomorrow, we expect the Commerce Department to report April New Home Sales of 675,000 (SAAR), down from 679,000 a year earlier. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index jumped 6.4% in February. We expect it to rise about 5% for March amid tight inventories. High mortgage rates are a challenge, but we remain bullish on the sector because demographics point to strong demand amid a decades-long shortage of affordable homes.

Stock opened higher Monday but have since lost direction. The S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 are all toggling back and forth between small gains and small losses as investors seem to be stuck in place. Perhaps indicative of how badly some are stretched to find a catalyst, meme stocks are the order of the day once again - with GameStop higher by 63%. By Tuesday, there should be more-meaningful news to spur traders, as that day starts a string of meaningful reports on inflation and consumer behavior (PPI, CPI and Retail Sales in particular).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Monday Tee Up: A Super Week

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday morning amid optimism that the Federal Reserve has finished with rate hikes - at least for the remainder of 2023. On Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady, as expected, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that it could raise rates again to maintain progress against inflation. On the earnings front, investors weighed strong reports from Starbucks and Shopify and awaited results from Apple after the close. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1991 per ounce.

The major indices finished slightly lower on Thursday as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports from Qualcomm, PayPal, and other major companies. Apple and Amazon also reported above-consensus sales and earnings after the close. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended July 29, in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. Continuing claims rose by 21,000 to 1.7 million. The data came ahead of the government's July employment report on Friday morning. The consensus calls for 200,000 new payroll jobs, down from 209,000 in June, and a steady unemployment rate of 3.6%. The Dow fell 0.19%, the S&P 0.25%, and the Nasdaq 0.10%. Crude oil rose nearly 3% to $82 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1969 per ounce.

U.S. consumers are treading water at the start of the summer, despite a buoyant job market and gasoline prices that are 25% lower than last summer. This supports the view that only one more rate hike might offer the best chance of cooling inflation without dunking the consumer. U.S. retail sales in June were up 1.5% from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Retail sales (which are reported on a nominal basis) including inflation grew at half the pace of the Consumer Price Index, which was up 3% in June. At a June conference, Walmart CFO John David Rainey said while headline inflation is coming down, but a cart of groceries is still 20% more expensive than it was two years ago. That's forcing shoppers to make hard choices. Sales at food and beverage stores rose just 1.3% last month, even as food-at-home prices were up 4.7% according to the CPI report. Shoppers are trading down to store brands and eating hot dogs rather than steak. As well, an increasing number of shoppers who make more than $100,000 a year are switching to Walmart and other discount grocers. Weakness in discretionary categories, including furniture stores (-4.6%), building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers (-3.2%), and department stores (-5.2%) show that consumers are reluctant to tap credit cards at record-high rates. Business at restaurants and bars remained strong, jumping 8.4% as consumers allocate extra cash to services rather than goods. Retail trade sales, which exclude food services and drinking places, were up just 0.5% year-over-year. The nonstore retailers category, dominated by e-commerce, was up 9.4% year-over-year.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning following earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley and new retail sales data. Bank of America shares rose 4% after the company reported strong 2Q earnings, helped by growth in net interest income. Morgan Stanley shares also rose, despite lower second-quarter earnings, after management projected generally stronger results in the second half of the year and in 2024. Retail sales were weaker than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in June, down from a revised 0.5% in May and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $75 per barrel, while gold jumped $28 to $1984 per ounce.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Thus far in 2023, market bulls are boasting about first-half S&P 500 returns that may top 15%. No one is very focused on the broad market index's 1.6% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. In 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Fed hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Dividend growth is among our most important themes for 2023, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are sending off three important signals amid the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is clearly focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important during periods of economic weakness and an outright earnings recession. Here are stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning amid continued concerns about the health of regional banks and the approaching debt ceiling deadline. The losses extended the selloff on Thursday, when the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.0%-5.25% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed would pause rate hikes for now as it assessed the impact of its rate hike campaign, but rejected the view that the central bank would cut rates later this year. The Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $19 to $2056 per ounce.

The FOMC raised the fed funds rate by another 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 5% to 5.25% and dropped some language in its statement suggesting that additional firming may be appropriate. They did not rule out further rate hikes, but it looks like they downshifted to "pause mode" for a while. For the day, the two-year Treasury yield fell 10 bps to 3.88%, about 30 bps above its low of 3.56% on March 24.

In the near term, the S&P 500 (SPX) is heading toward several important pieces of resistance following the rally off the March 13 intraday low of 3,809. Back in the latter part of February, the SPX broke down out of a bearish wedge, backtested the lower line of the pattern, and continued lower. From the February 2 closing high to the recent closing low, the index gave up almost 8% (or 324 points). Based on the size of the wedge, a minimum target was down at 3,656 -- which the index didn't come close to hitting.

It's as if the Federal Reserve is playing the "strongman game" at a carnival. Every time the Fed chairman swings the hammer, the puck goes higher -- but someone keeps moving the bell even higher. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, fed funds are now projected to go from a target range of 4.75%-5.0% to 5.5%-5.75% by the June meeting, and there is a 31% probability the funds rate goes to 5.75%-6.0% by July.

Insider-sentiment data, updated weekly by Vickers Stock Research, has been increasingly bearish for the past three weeks. And this week, the data from Vickers remains very worrisome.

Insider-sentiment data, updated weekly by Vickers Stock Research, has been increasingly bearish for the past three weeks. And this week, the data from Vickers remains very worrisome.

The stock market isn't making it easy for the bulls or the bears. After finally clearing resistance at 4,100 and rallying up to 4,195, the S&P 500 (SPX) has done an about-face, dropping back below 4,100.

The S&P 500 is at its highest point since the October low, and the index is inching closer to important resistance -- the 200-day average at 4,062 and the bear-market trendline at 4,100 (when looking out a few weeks).

While the volume of insider transactions reported by Vickers Stock Research remains relatively low because of restrictions placed on executives, beneficial owners, and directors during earnings season, the trading that is taking place has now been cautious for three consecutive weeks. New to the mix this week is a bearish pop in Vickers' NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio. That reading had been holding up, even as the Nasdaq one-week reading has been weak. But now, the NYSE reading also is showing some strain - and the combination of now-weakening NYSE sentiment combined with ongoing-weak Nasdaq sentiment is having a negative impact on Vickers' broader (eight-week) sentiment readings.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

With CPI Thursday now here and third-quarter EPS season starting, we are certain to see some volatile moves in the major indices and individual stocks. As the bear market gets older, the list of historical precedents continues to rise. Well, that's great for headlines -- but not for investors.

Despite more signs of moderating inflation, stocks gave up most of their early gains on Thursday. The Labor Department reported an unexpected 0.5% decline in the July producer price index, the first negative reading since April 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. The data followed a positive reading on consumer prices on Wednesday, and raised prospects for more modest Fed rate hikes at upcoming meetings. On the employment front, new weekly claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 14,000 to 262,000, just below the consensus forecast. Continuing claims also rose slightly from the prior week. The Dow rose 0.08%, the S&P fell 0.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $94 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1804 per ounce.

Literally everything seems to be going against the stock market. Rising yields across the curve, a strong dollar (which no one seems to be talking about), surging crude oil prices along with gasoline and heating oil, and a Fed that must start taking liquidity out of the system. Oh, and let's not forget about the war, continued supply issues, and stubborn inflation. Did we miss anything? Ah, yes. A breakdown in mega-growth stocks, an absolute collapse in hyper-growth stocks, a massive drawdown in cryptos, and broad economic worries.

Stocks fell again on Tuesday morning amid continued war concerns, as Russian forces moved closer to Kyiv and launched rocket attacks on civilian targets in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. U.S. manufacturing data was positive. The Institute for Supply Management said that its national factory index rose to 58.6 in February, up from 57.6 in January and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 58.0. The Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil jumped to more than $103 per barrel, while gold traded near $1928 per ounce.

Stocks rallied in December (despite rising COVID cases) and once again outperformed bonds for the year in 2021. Looking ahead, our Stock-Bond Barometer model is close to equally balanced between stocks and bonds for long-term investors. In other words, these asset classes should be near their normal weights in diversified portfolios. We have looked for large-cap companies with strong balance sheets and experienced management teams to be the leaders during the eventual recovery from COVID-19. This has played well, and now, with vaccines being distributed, small-cap risks are reduced and values are attractive. Our recommended exposure to small- and mid-caps is now 15% of equity allocation, in line with the benchmark weighting. U.S. stocks have outperformed global stocks over the trailing one- and five-year periods. We expect this trend to continue over the long term, given volatile global economic and currency conditions. That said, international stocks offer favorable near-term valuations, and we target 5%-10% of equity exposure to the group. Value took an early lead in 2021, but growth ultimately outperformed. As long as interest rates remain low in 2022, we anticipate that growth, led by Tech and Healthcare, will once again outperform value in 2022, led by Energy and Materials.

10 Investment Themes for 2022: Part 2 of 3

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning amid continued Delta variant concerns as investors awaited earnings from a range of major tech companies. The Commerce Department said that U.S. core capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.5% in June, in line with the prior month but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.7%. Meanwhile, the Conference Board reported that its July consumer confidence index rose slightly to 129.1 and topped the consensus of 123.9. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.7%. Crude oil traded near $71.50 per barrel, while gold rose to $1802 per ounce.

If we had to take part in a debate about insider sentiment, we could easily support the argument that insider sentiment is improving. We also could easily support the argument that insider sentiment is not improving. The factors involved in said debate are the absolute values of insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research, the trends for those values, and the rate of change for those trends.

Just before the 2020 holiday season, we started commenting on insider sentiment that was trending in a bearish direction. Two weeks ago, we started to pound the table a bit, as the broadest sell/buy ratio from Vickers Stock Research (the Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio, which includes all insider transactions that meet the criteria for inclusion in the Weekly Insider Report) started to reach worrisome levels. By the numbers, the ratio was 8.63 last week (with anything over 2.50 bearish) and included a Nasdaq component reading of 10.63.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday morning amid rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe and mixed corporate earnings. MasterCard shares fell 7% after the company posted 3Q earnings that were down from the prior year and below the consensus estimate, reflecting the slowdown in travel spending. UPS shares also fell sharply despite better-than-expected third-quarter results Amid the selloff, GE posted a surprise 3Q profit and positive free cash flow, sending the shares up nearly 8%. The Dow fell 3.2%, the S&P 3.1%, and the Nasdaq 3.2%. Crude oil traded near $37 per barrel, while gold fell $34 to $1878 per ounce.