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Freeport-McMoRan is a leading international mining company based in Phoenix. It operates geographically diverse assets with significant proven and probable reserves of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company's portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, one of the world's largest copper and gold deposits; the Morenci minerals district in North America; and the Cerro Verde and El Abra mines in South America. The company has approximately 27,200 employees. FCX shares are a component of the S&P 500.

The last trading week of August started with a mixed bag. On Monday (8/26/2024), the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 were dragged down from the start due to a tough day for semiconductors. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 2.5% and was sitting on short-term support from its 10- and 21-day exponential moving averages. The SOXX has had a big recovery since the August 5 intraday low, so it's not surprising that some anxiety was building. Discretionary also fell due to weakness in Tesla. Energy led the 11 S&P 500 sectors, as crude oil (WTI) bounced for a third day. Crude was back up to $77/barrel from a low last week of $71.46. The oil chart is a mess, with prices chopping around from the low $60s to the mid-$90s since the summer of 2022. Other sector strength was seen from the defensive Staples and Utilities groups, with minor gains in Materials, Financials, and Communication Services. A fair amount of people in the financial world have said that the S&P 500's almost full recovery from the pullback in the second half of July into early August has been too fast. But quick recoveries and 'V' bottoms generally are quite bullish and often lead to additional all-time highs. On the weekly charts, we had quick recoveries in the latter part of 2023 and in April/May of this year. And let's not forget the recovery from the pandemic, the recovery in early 2019, the recovery in 2014, and the several recoveries in 2012.

When global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. Currently, the yellow metal is trading around $2,400 per ounce, up 17% for the year and at the highest level in the past 25 years. During the first phase of the pandemic, as uncertainty abounded, the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months and broke through the $2,000 level. Gold spot prices also spiked above $2,000 in early March 2022 due to the war in Ukraine, and are now at even higher levels as tension simmers in the Middle East and East Asia, and the U.S. presidential election approaches. The current price of gold reflects the perceived safety of hard assets amid the global conflicts, as well as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates (which tend to weaken the dollar, which is the currency in which gold is priced). The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts also helps gold, as lower rates reduce the risk for a global economic recession and thus a potential decline in gold purchased for jewelry. Looking ahead, our forecast trading range for gold in 2024 is now $2,500-$1,800, and our average forecast for the year is now $2,200. This compares to average gold prices of $1,960 in 2023; $1,873 in 2022; $1,806 in 2021; $1781 in 2020; $1,400 in 2019; $1,265 in 2018; $1,277 in 2017; $1,258 in 2016; and $1,155 in 2015. As long as geopolitics and global economic uncertainty are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain at levels well above the historical averages of $1,150 since 2000 and $1,514 since 2010.

After very nice advances in gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and copper (CPER) from February/March until May, the metals complex cycled into extreme momentum/overbought territory on both daily and weekly timeframes and then pulled back. We have been waiting patiently over the past six to seven weeks for signs of an attractive reentry point. We also wanted to see signs that the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) was topping, as a weakening greenback generally is a favorable backdrop for the metals. All three broke nicely higher on Wednesday, gaining 1% to 3% and breaking their downtrends off highs from the second half of May. At the same time, the dollar has dropped the past three trading days and traced out a lower high, but remains in an uptrend off the late-December lows. We had mentioned that the USD COT data recently deteriorated after being dollar bullish since late last year. GLD held in the best during the pullback, and has traded in a sideways consolidation, while SLV and CPER were hit harder. GLD didn't retrace even a minor 38.2% of its rally from mid-February and never was near daily oversold territory. A range break above $225 could send GLD up to $240 or more, and eventually a lot higher based on the massive base from 2011 until early 2024. SLV retraced 38.2% of its rally and held key trendline support off the secondary low in March. A break over $29/$30 would open the door for a possible jump to the mid- to high-$30s region. CPER generally is a wildcard (and one that is highly volatile), but a break over $31 could also lead to a move to the mid- to high-$30s region. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)