Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 2Q24. We review 13Fs of major institutional investors, including activists, to see what they are buying and to look for trends. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. The stock-market volatility during 2Q gave those institutional investors a chance to buy a dip. Taking a look at the 13Fs from well-known institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy, either adding new holdings or increasing existing holdings. Buying was across a variety of sectors. Based on Vickers data, the following are select purchases made in 2Q by some high-profile money managers. We also list one significant sale (of Apple by Berkshire) and also note if the holding is now 4% or more of the total portfolio.

In this edition, sun looks set to rise again on Gucci's parent; UK homebuilder stocks are appealing; affordability dogs US housing amid hope; and Galderma Group, Tate & Lyle, and Accenture.

In this edition, sun looks set to rise again on Gucci's parent; UK homebuilder stocks are appealing; affordability dogs US housing amid hope; and Galderma Group, Tate & Lyle, and Accenture.

Yogi Berra famously said 'When you come to a fork in the road, take it.' Stock investors did just that on Thursday, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 0.77% but the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 lower by 0.79% and 0.25%, respectively. In a rare event, shares of Nvidia not only lost ground, but lost a relatively meaningful amount (3.5%), proving nothing can go up forever. Still, the major indices are comfortably ahead for the year to date -- and the big non-AI mover for stocks is the future direction of interest rates, which remains a concern for Wall Street and (for one day at least) offset AI mania.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rallied on Thursday, extending yesterday's gains on rate-cut optimism. Turning to stocks, shares of Apple (AAPL) are down after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit accusing the company of engineering a monopoly in the smartphone market. Bank stocks are up today as investors are optimistic that the anticipated rate cuts this year will drive more transactions. The S&P 500 is up 0.3%, the Dow is up 0.7%, the Nasdaq is up 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 is up 1.16%.

After the heavy-volume, bearish reversal on March 8 for the Nasdaq, Nasdasq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector, we had some downside follow-through for the first time since this monster rally started in October 2023. The QQQs and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) have lost their 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) by a minor amount. Still, for more than four months, the 21-day EMA has been quickly recaptured whenever this happened.

Another week has flown by in early 2024, while stocks have seen more recovery highs and the major indices have seen more all-time highs. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.7%, the S&P 100 popped 1.9%, the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 added 1.4%, the S&P 400 tacked on 1%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.9%. For the SPX, the "100," and both Nasdaq indices, last week was the fifteenth of 17 on the upside; it is 14 of 17 for the "400." During the 17 weeks, the SPX has gained 23.6%, while both Nasdaq indices are up over 26%. Those are great returns for a full year!

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

As 2023 comes to a close, we are reminded of John Bogle, the founder of The Vanguard Group, who was credited with popularizing the index fund. A man of many quotes and the author of a number of books, Bogle offered the following. 'Intelligent investors will use low-cost index funds to build a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, and they will stay the course. And they won't be foolish enough to think they can consistently outsmart the market.'

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning after Congress, in a last-minute deal, averted a government shutdown over the weekend. The agreement between House Democrats and a majority of Republicans will keep the government funded until mid-November. Manufacturing data was stronger than expected. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 49.0 in September, up from 47.6 in August and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 47.7. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil fell 1% to $90 per barrel while gold traded near $1848 per ounce.

The negative correlation between the stock market, the bond market, and U.S. Dollar Index (USD) has been very high of late. The late-July top and August pullback in stocks coincided with a run-up in Treasury yields as well as a decent increase in the greenback. The subsequent equity bounce off the August 24 low can be attributed to a quick decline in rates and the dollar. The latest minor drop in stocks corresponded to a quick pop in yields and the USD.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Thus far in 2023, market bulls are boasting about first-half S&P 500 returns that may top 15%. No one is very focused on the broad market index's 1.6% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. In 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Fed hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

For a third consecutive week, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research suggests that corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners recognize the strong stock-price gains that have been logged since mid-March -- but now may believe that a pause or some consolidation is in order. Are those same sentiment signals suggesting a significant correction is just ahead? Not yet.

We recently raised our rating on the Technology sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. As interest rates start to fall, IT demand in enterprise and data center markets is holding up. And mounting interest in ChatGPT could herald the age of AI, which could be a huge industry driver. Over the long term, we expect the Technology sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2023, with a gain of 12.4%. Tech underperformed the market in 2022, with a loss of 28.9%, and outperformed in 2021, with a gain of 33.4%. The P/E ratio on projected 2023 earnings is 23, above the market multiple. Earnings are expected to grow 14.5% in 2023 after having fallen 3.3% in 2022. Earnings rose 37.9% in 2021 and 7.7% in 2020. The sector's debt ratios are below the market average, as is the average dividend yield of 0.5%. Here is how we use our analysts' Technology sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

The major indices finished in positive territory on Thursday, led by the Technology and Communication Services sectors, but gave up stronger gains earlier in the day. Investors continued to focus on Fed policy, a day after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and hinted that it could soon pause its rate hike campaign amid turbulence in the banking sector. On the housing front, new home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 in February, up 1.1% from January but below the consensus forecast of 650,000. Employment data continued to show a tight labor market; first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 191,000 for the week ended March 18, below the consensus forecast of 197,000. The Dow rose 0.23%, the S&P 0.30%, and the Nasdaq 1.01%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold jumped $49 to $1998 per ounce.

Dividend growth is among our most-important investment themes in 2023, and stretches across industries. At this stage of the economic and market cycles, Argus recommends that investors pay close attention to dividend growth. We think consistent -- and accelerated -- dividend growth at a company gives three important signals to investors: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is mindful of shareholder returns, which include dividends; and 3) a significant dividend increase can be a message from management that the near-term outlook for the company is promising, even during a pandemic. In particular, we like companies that have grown their dividends at an average double-digit pace over the past five years. Stocks on our BUY list that meet this test include the following.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning announced that its "third" estimate for 3Q22 GDP growth was a rate of 3.2%. As is typically the case, the report indicated areas of strength and weakness in the economy. On the positive side, the consumer appears to be in good shape, with Personal Consumption Expenditures expanding at a 2.3% pace, driven by spending on services. Companies continue to invest in R&D projects and software, and Investments into Intellectual Property advanced at a 6.8% rate. Exports -- led by energy to Europe -- rose at a 14.6% clip. On the downside, Residential Investment declined 27%; Consumer Spending on Durable Goods fell 0.8%; and Consumer Spending on Nondurable Goods was flat. The GDP report also includes an inflation measure, the PCE Price Index. This index, excluding food and energy, rose at a 4.7% pace, well ahead the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%. While the economy is evidently still expanding, as companies continue to generate new jobs, the U.S. GDP growth trajectory is likely to turn negative in 2023 as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. We can already see the impact of the early Fed rate hikes on the residential sector.

Our End-of-Year Note to Clients

In theory, investors can breathe easier heading into the fourth quarter, as markets typically post the strongest returns of the year. We analyzed data collected on S&P 500 performance from 1980-2020. By our calculations, the fourth quarter has generated average gains of 4.6%, compared to gains of 2.0%, 2.8%, and 0.4% for 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q, respectively. The fourth quarter is consistent as well, with a "win percentage" of 81%. This means stock returns are positive in 4Q four years out of five, and compares to winning percentages of 65% in 1Q, 65% in 2Q, and 63% in 3Q (including Q322, which was down 5.2%). Still, 4Q has posted its share of clunkers. In 1987, which included Black Friday, stocks fell 23% during the period; in 2008, they sold off 18%, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and as the U.S. economy plunged into a deep recession. As recently as 2018, stocks slid 14% in the final quarter when trade wars intensified and the Fed raised rates. Last year, stocks rose 10.6% in 4Q. That would be a welcome return in 2022, in which stocks year-to-date are in a bear market. As 4Q unfolds, it is not unreasonable to expect continued volatility, given high interest rates and inflation, mid-term elections, and threats of recession. We continue to recommend that clients focus on quality companies with clean balance sheets and experienced management teams.

In this edition, Utilities Control the Path to Decarbonization, REIT Sector's relationship With Inflation and Interest Rates, Contract Research Organizations Are Poised for Healthy Growth, and Sony/Nintendo, VF Company, and Burberry

In this edition, Record Wind Installations Loom, Reinitiating Coverage of EDP, Inflation Reduction Act and its Impact on the U.S. Branded Drug Market, and Costco, Accenture, and DTE Energy

Stocks extended their losses on Thursday on concerns about more aggressive Fed rate hikes over the remainder of 2022 and into 2023, and increasing prospects for recession. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to 213,000 for the week ended September 17, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate. Continuing claims fell by 22,000 to 1.38 million. The Dow fell 0.35%, the S&P 0.84%, and the Nasdaq 1.37%. Crude oil rose slightly to $83.50 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1680 per ounce.

As if 2022 has not been bad enough for investors, we are entering the worst-performing quarter of the year for stocks. We analyzed data collected on S&P 500 performance from 1980-2022. The strongest quarter has been 4Q, which has generated average gains of 4.6%. First- and second-quarter returns have averaged 2.0% and 3.2%, respectively. But the 3Q is barely positive, with an average return of 0.5%. Not every 3Q is a disaster. The "win percentage" for the quarter is 64%, which means the market delivers positive returns in the quarter almost two-thirds of the time. Yet the quarters that are negative really hurt: -12% in 1981, -15% in 1990, -15% in 2000, -18% in 2001, -14% in 2008, and -14% in 2011. Some events in these quarters were random: the September 11 attacks in 2001; the Lehman bankruptcy in 2008; and the S&P U.S. Treasury downgrade in 2011. But 3Q is also when companies have a better view on whether they are going to meet their estimates for the year, and they may signal if they are poised to fall short. What's more, the Federal Reserve can be active. If investors are unable to conclude that the Fed can start to bring inflation under control in this third quarter, stock prices likely will remain under pressure.

Monday Tee-Up: GDP Plus Inflation

Stocks are mostly higher Friday morning. Meanwhile, cryptos are mixed. Existing Home Sales were lower than expected in February, slowing to an annualized rate of 6.02 million homes sold. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was up 1%. Crude oil traded at $103 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1936 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider-trading and institutional-ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 4Q21. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did three times in 2021 when stocks dropped 4%-5% in a matter of a few days. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

The market is stumbling like a reveler exiting a company holiday party (remember those from pre-COVID times?). In the final full trading week of 2021, the S&P 500 slipped 1.94%; the Dow Industrials dropped 1.68%; and the Nasdaq crashed 2.95%. Predictably, growth stocks in the Nasdaq were hit hardest during a week in which the Fed doubled down on its QE taper and laid out its rate-hike timeline for 2022.

Stocks fell on Thursday, reversing course after Wednesday's Fed-driven rally amid concerns about rising cases of the Omicron variant. Sector performance was mixed, with sharp losses in Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks and gains in Financials, Healthcare, and Basic Materials. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims rose to 206,000 for the week ended December 11, up from 188,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 200,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.845 million, down from 1.999 million a week earlier and below the consensus estimate. The Dow fell 0.08%, the S&P 0.87%, and the Nasdaq 2.47%. Crude oil rose $1 to $72 per barrel, while gold rose $35 to $1799 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Thursday as concerns eased about a potential Evergrande bond default and investors gained more certainty about the Fed's timeline for tapering bond purchases. Accenture posted solid fiscal 4Q results, raised its dividend, and issued strong guidance for FY22. Salesforce also raised its full-year revenue outlook. Both first-time and continuing unemployment claims rose from the prior week, and came in above consensus forecasts. The Dow rose 1.48%, the S&P 1.21%, and the Nasdaq 1.04%. Crude oil rose to $73 per barrel, while gold fell $30 to $1748 per ounce.

The Technology sector started slowly in 2021 as investors focused on value stocks. But the sector has come on strong in recent months (up 22% year-to-date) and now is outperforming the market (up 20.7%) as well as value sectors such as Consumer Staples (+8%), Utilities (+10%), Materials (+17%), and Industrials (+18%). The sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 28% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our analysts' Tech sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked the stock market into a bear market. Though stocks have recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did during two consecutive days in mid-July when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 1,000 points. Yet investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate and can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Damon Runyon once commented that watching a yacht race is like watching grass grow. Well these days, watching changes in insider sentiment is like watching a yacht race. Indeed, overall insider sentiment remains cautious and stock indices remain at or near all-time highs.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday amid continued concerns about rising inflation and soaring bond yields, as the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose above 1.7%. On the employment front, the Labor Department reported that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 770,000, up 45,000 from the prior week and above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims fell slightly to 4.124 million, but were also above consensus expectations. The Dow fell 0.46%, the S&P 1.48%, and the Nasdaq 3.02%. Crude oil fell sharply to $59 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1733 per ounce.

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for February 2021 will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, March 5, 2021. The headlines on the jobs front have started to brighten a bit in recent weeks, as COVID-19 vaccines have been distributed and administered. Still, the move back to full employment is slow. Last month, employers added jobs (an admittedly low 49,000) and the unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% to 6.3% (but that was because workers left the workforce). Drilling deeper into the data, we note that the rate of chronic underemployment (i.e., also counting part-time workers who want full-time jobs, or workers who have been out of work for at least six months) is 11.1% -- well above the five-year average of 9.4% and the sub-7% rate that prevailed at the end of 2019. We look for the jobs data to improve in the months ahead. Last week, unemployment claims fell sharply, to 730,000 from 841,000 in the prior week. Our forecast calls for modest 100,000 growth in payrolls for February. We actually look for the unemployment rate to tick higher, back toward 6.5%, as vaccine developments bring workers back to the workforce in search of jobs.

Stocks fell on Friday morning as a long-awaited fiscal stimulus package remained elusive despite signs that Democrats and Republicans were moving closer to an agreement. Congress is instead likely to first pass another stopgap spending bill that will keep the government running past midnight, while also providing time for additional stimulus negotiations. The package under discussion reportedly includes one-time payments of $600 to most Americans, extended unemployment benefits, help for states in vaccine distribution, and aid for small businesses. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $49 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1892 per ounce.

The Technology sector has led the market recovery from the COVID-19 depths of March 2020. Through November 20, the sector was up 31% for the year, compared to a 10% gain for the S&P 500. The Tech sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 27% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the Tech sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT): Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our Tech sector ideas from our analysts in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

Stocks rebounded on Friday, finishing off a week that saw the major indexes close mixed. Technology stocks performed better than blue chips, breaking a three-week string of FAANG sell-offs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 359 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 increased 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.3% on the day. For the full week, the Dow was down 1.8%, the S&P 500 was down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.1%. With last week's drop in the S&P 500, the broader market has declined four weeks in a row. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is down 4.8%, the S&P is up 2.1%, and the Nasdaq is up 21.6%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 1.3%, the S&P 500 is up 11.4%, and the Nasdaq is up 37.5%.

Stocks rebounded on Friday, finishing off a week that saw the major indexes close mixed. Technology stocks performed better than blue chips, breaking a three-week string of FAANG sell-offs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 359 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 increased 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.3% on the day. For the full week, the Dow was down 1.8%, the S&P 500 was down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.1%. With last week's drop in the S&P 500, the broader market has declined four weeks in a row. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is down 4.8%, the S&P is up 2.1%, and the Nasdaq is up 21.6%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 1.3%, the S&P 500 is up 11.4%, and the Nasdaq is up 37.5%.

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for June 2020 will be released on Thursday, July 2. Last month's new jobs total was a pleasant surprise at 2.5 million and in stark contrast to the results in March and April (when the economy shed 22.1 million jobs). But don't be fooled into thinking that a strong turnaround in the employment environment has started. Even though states are starting to reopen their economies, unemployment claims remain above 1 million per week and continuing claims are just below 20 million. That's out of a total workforce of 156 million. As well, certain states and companies are starting to slow the re-opening process and companies are even shuttering some operations/locations as cases of COVID-19 increase. Before we see the unemployment rate start trending down consistently, the country needs to recover its health. That requires better testing programs for COVID-19, treatments for the disease and ultimately a vaccine. We expect widespread testing later this summer, a treatment in the fall and a vaccine in the first half of next year.