Stocks closed mixed on Thursday. The Dow edged higher, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell following a better-than-expected GDP report. Ahead of the Friday's June reading of the PCE and the Michigan sentiment survey, stocks are volatile and likely to end the week with losses.

Insiders remain on the fence. All of the one-week sell/buy ratios from Vickers Stock Research improved this week (but are not stellar), while all the eight-week ratios are best described as flat. From a longer-term view, the six-month-based Insider Index from Vickers appears to have leveled off after months of deterioration -- and indeed improved slightly from last week. Still, the reading remains far from bullish territory and no return to bullish is imminent as the index is at its most-bearish level since September 2021. End of day, there is no compelling movement in insider sentiment this week. Meanwhile, according to Argus' Mark Arbeter, CMT, 'market breadth is certainly not optimal for a bull market, and eventually one of two things likely will happen. The rest (or part) of the market will wake up and start to participate, adding to the semiconductors strength, or the semis will run into trouble and take an already weak market structure lower. Dominance by the heavily weighted market caps is not a bad thing -- as long as it persists.' On a sector basis, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Information Technology, with shares valued at $1.11 billion sold, followed by Consumer Staples ($338 million sold) and Financials ($185 million sold). Buying outpaced selling in Energy, with $107 million of shares bought versus $45 million sold, as well as in Real Estate and Materials. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) and Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL).

Stocks are selling off on Wednesday morning as investors react to a jump in U.S. bond yields after a government debt auction was ill received because of concerns over interest rates. Without the offset of headline-grabbing earnings reports, the path of least resistance for stocks appears to be lower and may well stay that way until Friday -- when PCE data is released. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up five basis points to 4.59%. Crude oil was flat at $80 per barrel, while Bitcoin was down slightly near $68,000.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q24. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as Fedex and Union Pacific. According to Vickers, here are recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors and other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Despite April Stumble, Positive Stock-Market Outlook for 2024

Solid 1Q Leads into 2Q Uncertainty

Stocks pulled back on Friday morning as investors digested inflation data released this week and ahead of the Fed's policy decision next week. The Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in February, matching expectations and down from a 0.8% increase in January. Export prices rose 0.8% after advancing 0.9% in January. Prices for fuel imports advanced 1.8%, while nonfuel imports rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to decline. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -20.9 in March from -2.4 in February and below expectations. New orders declined significantly, and employment and hours worked also fell. Input prices softened moderately, while output prices held steady. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the first weeks of March edged down to 76.5 from 76.9 in February. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 0.9%. Crude oil traded just above $81 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2165 per ounce.

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning as investors digested new earnings reports and economic data. In December, the U.S. trade deficit was $62.2 billion -- an increase of 0.5%, with exports rising 1.5% to $258.2 billion and imports increasing 1.3% to 320.4 billion. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow 0.4% and the Nasdaq was up 0.8%. Crude oil traded above $73 per barrel and gold traded at $2053 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following strong earnings from Amazon and generally positive inflation data. The Commerce Department said that its personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, rose 3.4% from the prior year in September, in line with the revised reading for August and the Bloomberg consensus forecast. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 3.7%, down slightly from 3.8% in August and also in line with consensus. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. Crude oil rose to $84 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1992 per ounce.

Inflation, a possible recession, higher interest rates, and higher gas prices. Consumers don't want to hear it. They want to go out and eat. They were denied that experience during the pandemic and are making up for lost time with "revenge eating" and "revenge travel." In the September retail sales report that caused a fuss last week, the category of "Food Services and Drinking Places" was ranked number one for growth, up nearly 12% in the first nine months of 2023 (compared to the same period a year ago). No other category was even close. For sure, the restaurant sector has some headwinds. One is chicken prices. The price of chicken is at an all-time high, at $1.96 per pound, up 33% in August 2023 from two years ago. Of course, chicken is one of the most-popular menu items across the range of restaurants -- from fast food to casual dining to formal dining. Restaurants, as best they can, try to pass on higher prices to patrons. But at some point, patrons won't bite (pun intended.) Next to consider are obesity drugs. Some analysts worry that these now-popular drugs will curb appetites and stop consumers from snacking. Argus' restaurant analyst John Staszak, CFA, is keeping an eye on the impact of these obesity drugs. But based on their high prices and possible safety issues, John sees only a slightly negative impact for now. Argus has an Over-Weight rating on the Consumer Discretionary sector. Here are some Argus BUY-rated restaurant stocks that might well show EPS growth over the next year.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, led by strong gains in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology sectors after a wide range of earnings reports. The gains came a day after an expected 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said that an additional rate hike was possible in September. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $80 per barrel, while gold fell sharply to $1945 per ounce.

Stocks were mostly higher on Monday morning as investors awaited new inflation data and the start of 2Q earnings season later this week, including reports from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, and PepsiCo. According to data from FactSet, earnings at S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 7.2% from the prior year in 2Q, more than the 4.7% decline projected at the start of the quarter. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil fell slightly to $74 per barrel while gold fell $3 to $1930 per ounce.

We have adjusted our recommended sector allocations this month. The following reflects our guidance for the calendar third quarter of 2023. We have raised Consumer Discretionary to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. Employment remains high, and wages are still rising. Consumers are still taking over-due vacations, benefiting leisure, hospitality, gaming and restaurants. We have raised Communication Services to Market-Weight from Under-Weight. Social media stocks such as Meta and Alphabet, which struggled in 2022, are now riding the AI wave. We have lowered Industrials to Market-Weight from Over-Weight. In a high-interest-rate environment, enterprise demand for industrial solutions has softened and may take some time to recover. Lastly, we have lowered Energy to Under-Weight from Market-Weight. Petroleum prices have come down from peak due to slow recovery in China from COVID lockdowns and widespread development of renewable resources. Energy earnings are expected to decline sharply in 2023. Our rebalancing process takes place four times a year, early in the months of March, June, September and December. Our current Over-Weight sectors are now Basic Materials, Financial Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. Our current Market-Weight sectors are Communication Services, Industrials, Healthcare, Real Estate, and Utilities. Our Under-Weight sectors are Energy and Consumer Staples. Argus Research suggests that advisors and investors leverage this consistent and comprehensive process to adjust sector weightings within diversified equity portfolios.

AI in the Stock Market: Mania or Paradigm Shift?

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Our list this week identifies companies that received an Argus target-price increase in April. As the stock prices of these companies approached their target prices, Argus analysts saw those prices going even higher. We are in the thick of earnings season and our analysts are scouring quarterly reports to evaluate how the companies they follow are doing. With economists busy analyzing economic data to determine whether the economy might slip into recession, companies have been attending to their businesses. Some are weathering current economic conditions better than others. The economic pressures are real - including rising interest rates, inflation, the strong dollar, and wavering consumer spending patterns. These stressors are on top of normal competitive pressures, as companies fight to sell their products and services, outmaneuver peers, and make profits. Looking back at April, our analysts found companies where the business outlook is solid - and went through the mechanics of our valuation framework to adjust target prices upwards. Our framework includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. Here are the stocks on which we raised target prices in April. All are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday morning following earnings from major Tech companies and new manufacturing data. Microsoft shares rose more than 7% after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results, driven by strength in its cloud and AI businesses. However, UK regulators blocked the company's planned acquisition of videogame maker Activision Blizzard. Meanwhile, new data showed a sharper-than-expected decline in capital goods orders. The Commerce Department said that orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.4% in March; the Reuters consensus forecast had called for a smaller decline of 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $2005 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning following news that First Citizens BancShares of North Carolina would purchase Silicon Valley Bank. First Citizens will acquire SVB by granting equity appreciation rights, potentially worth up to $500 million, to the FDIC, and will also receive a credit line from the FDIC. First Citizens shares rose more than 45% following the announcement. First Republic shares also rose 17% on news that regulators would expand an emergency lending facility, giving the bank more time to strengthen its balance sheet. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.1%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $71 per barrel, while gold fell nearly 1.5% to $1955 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Earnings Fading, but Investors Don't Seem to Care

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Tech heavyweights Alphabet and Microsoft. Alphabet shares fell 7% after the company reported much lower 3Q earnings that came in below the consensus forecast, reflecting weakness in digital advertising. Microsoft shares also fell, despite above-consensus fiscal 1Q results, as growth in the company's cloud business slowed sharply from the prior year. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.0%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $87 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1674 per ounce.

The third reading of 2Q22 GDP will be released at 8:30am on Thursday. The initial growth rate was reported at -0.9%, and the first revision didn't differ much at -0.6%. As we get to the final reading, there may be an upward revision to the Personal Consumption Expenditures for Services line, which continues to recover from the pandemic (but perhaps offset to a degree by a downward revision to Exports, as exporters have to contend with the surging dollar). We have been paying attention to the trends at the often-overlooked Inventory line, as wild swings in this statistic have had an impact on overall growth and on pricing trends. In 1H20, as the pandemic struck and economies shut down, the inventory-to-sales ratio spiked from near its historical average of 1.4% to 1.75%. Nothing was being purchased. Of course, not much was being manufactured either -- and so, for the ensuing two years, inventories have been in tight supply (a cause of inflation). The good news is that inventories are being rebuilt, even if at an uneven pace. Consistent inventory growth can have two impacts in the quarters ahead. It can ease pricing pressure and growing inventories can contribute to GDP growth.

Stocks continued to drop on Friday morning on interest rate and recession fears, led by sharp declines in the Energy, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 by 16% to 3,600, citing a higher than previously expected path for interest rates. On the earnings front, Costco posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q results, though the shares fell on concerns about declining gross margins. The Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P 1.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.9%. Crude oil dropped more than 5% to $79 per barrel, while gold traded near $1653 per ounce.

Stocks continued to drop on Friday morning on interest rate and recession fears, led by sharp declines in the Energy, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 by 16% to 3,600, citing a higher than previously expected path for interest rates. On the earnings front, Costco posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q results, though the shares fell on concerns about declining gross margins. The Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P 1.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.9%. Crude oil dropped more than 5% to $79 per barrel, while gold traded near $1653 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

As of the close on July 25, the major indices were sitting at key short-term spots -- either at recent breakout areas or just above. The S&P 500 fell back to its breakout area near 3,950 and was just above its 50-day average. The Nasdaq was slightly above its breakout at 11,700 and a few hundred points above its 50-day. The QQQs were above the breakout point at 297; the S&P MidCap 400 was very close to breakout; and the Russell 2000 had pulled right back to key short-term chart support.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning following Tuesday's massive selloff. Microsoft shares rose 6% after the company posted stronger-than-expected fiscal 3Q results and projected double-digit revenue growth for the next fiscal year. On the negative side, Alphabet shares fell 3% after disappointing first-quarter sales and earnings. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil fell slightly to $101.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $18 to $1886 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider-trading and institutional-ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 4Q21. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, led by the Technology and Basic Materials sectors. On the earnings front, Chipotle Mexican Grill rose nearly 9% following strong 4Q results, while CVS Health fell 5%, despite a solid fourth quarter, after offering disappointing guidance for 2022. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil traded near $90 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1833 per ounce.