In this edition, good buys in semiconductor manufacturing still exist; Flutter looks to have wings; US unemployment uptick no reason for panic; and BRP, Smartsheet, and Nio.

Global stocks are gaining, if not at the pace of domestic equities. While the S&P 500 has risen 17% year to date, the EAFA index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has gained 9.5%. Over the past five years, the performance gap has been wider, with the S&P 500 advancing 94% compared to a 32% gain in EAFE. But the underperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. Consider that the EAFE dividend yield of 2.9% is 170 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors, who have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity in areas such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S. interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection of companies that pay dividends, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term BUY rating from an Argus analyst. Note this list of approximately 25-30 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major industrial sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

Money continues to flow into small caps and out of Big Tech. The Russell is up slightly. The Nasdaq is down nearly 1%. Chips were making a comeback earlier from the massive selloff yesterday but that momentum has not held, even with good news from Taiwan Semi. Back to small-caps and some perspective, the total market cap of the main small-cap index, the Russell 2000 (ticker IWM) is said to be only as large as one of the multiple $3 trillion market-cap stocks in the 'Magnificent 7.' But let's not spoil the party. Over the past week, IWM has soared more than 10%.

The second quarter of 2024 was rewarding for equity investors, as the S&P 500 increased another 4% and has gained almost 15% year to date. Growth was the segment leader in 2Q, as the S&P 500 Growth Index advanced approximately 8% in the period while the S&P 500 Value Index declined slightly. Leading sectors included Information Technology and Communication Services, while sectors in the red for the past three months included Real Estate, Materials, Industrials, Financial, and Energy. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage declined 2.4% during the quarter, while the median stock dropped 3.0%. The average BUY-rated stock declined 0.7%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 6.7%. Will the rally broaden in 2H24, or will investors keep focusing on Tech and Communications groups? Will small-caps pick up their pace (the Russell 2000 was up 1.8% in 1H24), or is the current bull market rally due for a break, with some profit-taking coming into play? Given declining interest rates, we expect growth stocks to continue to carry the bull market, while the risk of recession puts a premium on clean balance sheets, which are also more prevalent among large-caps. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3-4% range. Here are the top 10 performers from the Argus Universe last quarter, including, somewhat surprisingly, representatives of five of the 11 major sectors, as well as the five worst performers.

We've reported for weeks that the trading activity among corporate insiders in general, but on the tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular, was clearly suggesting that stocks likely had come too far, too fast. Further, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research left the clear impression that stocks were priced for perfection and vulnerable to events like inflation disappointment, geopolitical turmoil, or less-than-expected corporate earnings. Now, a mix of all those things seem to be in play and stocks are indeed experiencing rough sledding for the first time since about October. Reflecting the forecasting from Vickers, as of this writing the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 have slid about 7% from the March 22 highs while the S&P 500 is off about 5%.

Our list this week shines a light on international stocks. We sorted our database for large-cap international stocks valued above $50 billion and with a High or Medium-High Argus rating for Financial Strength. We then sorted further, looking for stocks in the group that are furthest from their 52-week high, suggesting value. Timing matters, of course, and stocks have been on a tear lately. We ran the same list a month ago and note some shifting today. Roche Holding was on our initial list, but we have since downgraded it to a HOLD. Novo Nordisk has had tremendous attention from investors, but was not on our previous list as it was hitting new highs -- and has fallen from those highs in the past few weeks. Here is our current list of Argus large-cap BUY-rated international stocks that seem to offer value.

Global economic growth is expected to pick up slightly in 2025, according to the World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund. The moderate acceleration is attributed largely to emerging markets, led by India and China, and also the expectation that global inflation will continue to moderate. In its recent report, the IMF notes "inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions." The world economy is expected to expand 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. Though moving in the right direction, these rates are below the long-term historical global growth rate of 3.8%, due to the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. For industrialized economies (the U.S., Europe, Japan, etc.) growth is forecast at a low 1.5% in 2024, followed by 1.8% in 2025. The U.S. is expected to expand at a pace of 2.1% in 2024, followed by a positive but-somewhat-sluggish 1.7% in 2025. For emerging economies (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, etc.), forecasts call for 4.1% growth in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025. The clear leaders are expected to be India and China, with average growth for the two years of 6.5% and 4.6%, respectively, in 2024, with India expected to maintain that pace while China slows to 4.1% in 2025. These growth nations have different drivers: population growth in India and productivity growth in China. We factor these global growth forecasts into our asset-allocation models, and based in part on the slow global growth rates, we continue to recommend that investors over-weight portfolios toward U.S.-based securities. Global stocks generally represent value, but the risks to growth are high.

In this edition, we explore the state of US auto market; margin of safety erased in US equity market rally; growing pains and growth in US equity market; and EOG Resources, Alnylam, and Pembina.

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

In this edition, Worldline pays its bills; Taiwan Semiconductor has upbeat guidance; Australian banks are undervalued; and Just Eat Takeaway, Compass Minerals, and Charles Schwab.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following new economic data. This week's initial jobless claims were 187,000, a 16,000 decrease from the prior week's revised level. This is the lowest level since late September 2022 and short of the expected 208,000. On the housing front, residential building permits issued rose to 1.495 million in December from 1.46 million, above the expected 1.48 million, and up 6.1% from one year ago. Home starts declined to 1.46 million from 1.56 million, but was above the expected 1.43 million reading and 7.6% higher than last year. The Dow fell 0.2%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq was up 0.8%. Crude oil traded above $744 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $2016 per ounce.

Global stocks are picking up the pace. While the S&P 500 has jumped almost 11% in the past month, the EAFA index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has risen 10%. Over the past six years, the performance gap has been wider, with the S&P 500 advancing 12% compared to a 7% gain for the EAFE. But the underperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. The EAFE dividend yield of 2.4% is 80 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. Those investors have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection of companies that pay dividends, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term HOLD rating from an Argus analyst.

U.S. equites finished lower on Thursday while Treasury yields rose as investors digested comments by Fed Chair Powell. Mr. Powell warned that the central bank may need to hike rates as inflation is still too high but 'the committee is proceeding carefully,' hinting that rates could hold steady in November. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% for the first time since 2007. The S&P 500 closed 0.9% lower, the Dow was down 0.8% and the Nasdaq lost nearly 1%. Crude oil rose above $90 per barrel and gold was up to $1985 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Institutions must file a Form 13F to report their holdings, and it is due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters. So these forms have now come in from 2Q23. We like to review the 13Fs of major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into companies such as Fedex and Union Pacific. According to Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

Stocks rose on Monday morning as investors awaited earnings from major Tech companies and the Fed's interest rate decision later this week. Business activity data was mixed. S&P Global said that its flash Services PMI fell to 52.4 in July, down from 54.4 in June and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 54.0. At the same time, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 from 46.3 in June and came in above the consensus estimate. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $78 per barrel while gold fell $5 to $1962 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Monday morning as investors awaited earnings from major Tech companies and the Fed's interest rate decision later this week. Business activity data was mixed. S&P Global said that its flash Services PMI fell to 52.4 in July, down from 54.4 in June and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 54.0. At the same time, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 from 46.3 in June and came in above the consensus estimate. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $78 per barrel while gold fell $5 to $1962 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday amid mixed earnings reports and more signs of a slowing economy. The Conference Board said that its Leading Economic Index fell 1.2% in March to 108.4, the lowest level since November 2020. Housing market data was also weak, as existing home sales fell a greater-than-expected 2.4% in March, and weekly unemployment benefit claims pointed to a gradually tightening labor market. On the earnings front, Tesla shares dropped nearly 10% after the automaker reported disappointing first-quarter earnings and raised investor concerns about price cuts and margin pressure. AT&T also fell sharply after reporting slower subscriber growth and weak free cash flow. The Dow fell 0.33%, the

Exactly three weeks ago, the two-year/10-year Treasury yield spread hit -107 basis points (bps), which was the largest inversion since 1981. From mid-1978 until mid-1982, the two/10 spread frequently was inverted and hit its largest level in 1980 at about 200 bps. At the time of the large spread on March 8, the two-year was at its recovery high of 5.05%, while the 10-year was at 3.98%. Since then, the inversion has declined to about 53 bps as the two-year has cratered almost 100 bps while the 10-year has declined 40 bps.

Market breadth has deteriorated since early February, which is logical as the major indices have lost ground but continue to respect important support levels. We've looked at hundreds of stock charts for issues in the S&P 500 (SPX), and it is obvious that the average stock chart has gone from looking constructive in January/early February to being bearish/absolute ugly only five to six weeks later.

Future actions by the FOMC concerning the fed funds rate during 2023 are top of mind for most investors and, as such, we have seen a pop in the short end of the curve. Yet the 10-year is showing little volatility, as its daily Bollinger Band width continues to tighten. The bands are as tight as they have been since May and September 2021. Historically (and this happens with most financial assets), when volatility shrinks, a big move often is right around the corner.

Global stocks are on a run. While the S&P 500 has jumped almost 8% year-to-date, The EAFA Index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has risen 9%. Over the past six months, foreign stocks also have outperformed, climbing 11% versus a 1% decline by the U.S. market. The story is different over the past five years, as the S&P 500 has risen 50% and global stocks have fallen 1%. Even so, the long outperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. The EAFE dividend yield of 2.7% is 100 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors - who have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S. interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term BUY rating from an Argus analyst. This list of approximately 25 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major industrial sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded around $81/barrel on Tuesday, after sinking to around $70 in the first half of December. Crude has bounced off the key 61.8% retracement of the rally from the November 2020 lows. But WTI remains in a bearish channel off the peak since mid-June and needs to push sustainably above $82 to break the downtrend.

In this edition, our coverage of Great-West gets new life, consumers can get some good buys despite inflation, travel still tops consumer wish lists, and Albertsons, Exact Sciences, and Taiwan Semiconductor.

Stocks rose slightly on Thursday after the Consumer Price Index for December rose 6.5% in prices year-over-year but fell 0.1% sequentially, which was in line with expectations. Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 last week. Employers added 223,000 jobs in December. Industries trading higher included airlines, construction & engineering and energy. American Airlines rose more than 9% after reporting preliminary 4Q estimates that were considerably higher than expected. The Nasdaq closed up 0.6%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Dow Jones closed up 0.6%. Crude oil is trading above $78 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1895 per ounce.

Stocks recovered near midday on Thursday after initially falling on hot inflation data. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 8.2% from the prior year in September, down slightly from an 8.3% increase in August but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 8.1%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 6.6% from the prior year, up from 6.3% in August and above the consensus forecast of 6.5%. On the earnings front, Delta Air Lines posted weaker-than-expected 3Q EPS, but issued above-consensus guidance for the fourth quarter, citing strong demand for air travel. Walgreen shares rose more than 6% after the company posted strong fiscal 4Q results and raised its guidance. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $87 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1667 per ounce.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years, as the Federal Reserve since 2018 has embarked on two campaigns to raise interest rates, sandwiched around a desperate program that lowered the federal funds rate to zero in order to help the economy recover from the pandemic. The endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields, and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks. Note this list of 25 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

Stocks pared sharp early losses on Thursday afternoon but still finished mainly in negative territory. Investors weighed disappointing earnings from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley and comments from Fed officials that suggested a possible 100-basis-point increase in interest rates at the July FOMC meeting. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 244,000 for the week ended July 9, up from 235,000 a week earlier and above the Bloomberg consensus estimate. The Dow fell 0.46%, the S&P fell 0.30%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.03%. Crude oil rose slightly to $96.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $27 to $1708 per ounce.

The stock market opens Monday with corporate earnings season ramping up. On the docket, more banks and financial companies will report, including some national giants, like Bank of America and American Express, as well as many regional banks. Other key companies reporting this week include IBM, Halliburton, Lockheed Martin, Johnson & Johnson, Tesla, Alcoa, Procter & Gamble, AT&T, Verizon, Netflix, American Airlines, and United Airlines. The wide range of reporting companies will help give economists a sense of how different sectors are weathering inflation, rising interest rates, and the impact of the war in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial average fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 2.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite 3.9%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 5.2%, the S&P 7.8%, and the Nasdaq 14.7%. On Friday, the Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%.

Stocks fell on Thursday on employment news and rising wholesale prices. The Labor Department reported that first-time jobless claims rose by 23,000 to 230,000, reflecting rising COVID cases. However continuing jobless claims for the week ended January 2 were 1.559 million vs. 1.733 million expected and a revised 1.753 million during the prior week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the December producer price index rose 0.2% from November and 9.7% year-over-year. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 1.4%, and the Nasdaq was down 2.5%. Crude oil traded below $82 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1822 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Thursday morning following strong earnings reports from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UnitedHealth Group, and new producer price and employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 293,000 for the week ended October 9, down from 329,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 320,000. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil rose to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1800 per ounce.

The Technology sector started slowly in 2021 as investors focused on value stocks. But the sector has come on strong in recent months (up 22% year-to-date) and now is outperforming the market (up 20.7%) as well as value sectors such as Consumer Staples (+8%), Utilities (+10%), Materials (+17%), and Industrials (+18%). The sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 28% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our analysts' Tech sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

The Argus Research Fundamental Universe of Coverage includes approximately 500 leading U.S. and international companies. We cover the waterfront -- from Technology to Utilities, from Energy to Healthcare. We generally follow the Top 200 most widely held stocks, sourced from our sister company Vickers Stock Research, which collects institutional ownership data from the US Securities and Exchange Commission. From there, we look to identify the next 200-300 leading U.S. and international companies to add to our list. Our Universe of Coverage is dynamic and growing. We are adding stocks to coverage continually and often get ideas from our clients. Here are five of our most-recent additions.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive and resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. In 2019, the Fed lowered rates in order to restore a normal upward slope in the yield curve. In 2020, global investors, fearing the spread of the coronavirus, pushed rates lower still. Now, in 2021, rates might be headed higher in a few months. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geopolitical turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports along with employment and manufacturing data. The Federal Reserve said that U.S. manufacturing output fell 0.1% in June, reflecting reduced automobile production due to the ongoing semiconductor shortage. The reading was down from a 0.9% increase in May and below the consensus forecast calling for 0.2% growth. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims fell to 360,000, the third straight reading below 400,000 but slightly above consensus. Continuing claims fell to 3.241 million from 3.367 million a week earlier and came in below the consensus of 3.3 million. The Dow rose 0.15%, the S&P fell 0.33%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.70%. Crude oil fell 2% to $71.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1829 per ounce.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years as the endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches. Investors have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors.

Insider sentiment, as viewed using weekly data supplied by Vickers Stock Research, remains stubbornly cautious -- as it has for almost all of 2021. With the DJIA up 8.77% year-to-date, the S&P 500 up 10.93%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 8.86%, it might be easy to believe that insiders have it wrong. Maybe. Or maybe not.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors. One is a more robust selection of high-quality names. Yields also tend to be higher in overseas markets in general. And finally, valuations can be more attractive.