Insider buying tends to get more attention than insider selling. Indeed, Peter Lynch famously noted that 'insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.' Up until recently, 2024 was a very good year for equity investors, with all-time highs booked on a regular basis. So as insiders grew increasingly cautious over the past few months, it was easy to assume they were simply taking a little off the top. But about four weeks ago, the caution became more pronounced, and we noted in recent commentaries that 'insiders have increased their selling activity;' and then 'insiders continue to...cash in;' and then insider sentiment is 'deeply into bearish territory.' Finally, last week, we detailed that certain sell/buy ratios from Vickers Stock Research were at their most-bearish levels since February of 2023. So insider caution turned into a bearish stampede. More important (and keeping in mind the words of Peter Lynch) is the following: Are insiders starting to think that prices are again attractive? Not yet. Current insider-sentiment readings from Vickers remain very bearish for a third week, with the action on the NYSE especially bleak. Meanwhile, the Insider Index from Vickers now sits at its most-bearish reading since August of 2021. This will all turn eventually -- and we plan to call it out. But for now, playing defense remains the order of the day it seems. On a sector basis, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Information Technology, with shares valued at $114 million sold versus roughly $19 million bought. Buying outpaced selling in Communication Services. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Appian Corp. (NGM: APPN) and The St. Joe Co. (NYSE: JOE)

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The first-quarter earnings season has crossed the 90% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 7%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 43%, and Consumer Discretionary, up 26%. On the flipside, Healthcare and Energy, both down 24%, are performing the worst. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost outlooks during earnings season, as this is often a signal for momentum in the months ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in the Argus Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 1Q24 EPS reporting season.

U.S. stocks rose on Monday, continuing Friday's rally after a softer-than-expected jobs report. This week, there are no major economic reports and earnings reports are slowing. Oil prices are up due to concerns that a new Israeli invasion of Rafah is looming as well as news that Saudi Aramco will raise its crude oil prices to Asia and Europe next month. The Dow is up 0.1%, and S&P 500 0.6% and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Crude oil was trading above $78 per barrel and gold rose $24 to $2333 per ounce.

Bumps in the Soft Landing

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The third-quarter earnings season is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a 6.3% gain, year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 1.0% expected at the start of the earnings period, and should be enough to end the "earnings recession" that investors have endured over the past three quarters. Propelling the 3Q outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services, up 46%, while Energy again (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 33%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q23 EPS reporting season.

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning, extending last week's gains amid optimism about an end to Fed rate hikes. Investors weighed earnings reports from Berkshire Hathaway and Dish Network and awaited results from Disney later in the week. Tesla also announced plans to build a relatively low-cost electric car at its plant in Germany. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $81.50 per barrel while gold fell $9 to trade near $1990 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks recouped some of their recent losses on Friday morning following the government's July employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 187,000 payroll jobs in July, up from a revised 185,000 in June but below the Reuters consensus of 200,000. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5% from 3.6% in June, and wage growth was stronger than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 4.4% from the prior year, above the consensus forecast of 4.2%. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil rose 1% to $82.50 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1977 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Argus Research believes that ESG investing is a smart option to consider. Companies committed to ESG values typically reflect positive traits from management which often translate into better business. ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing has come a long way and continues to grow. According to the Global Sustainable Investment Association, global assets under management in ESG strategies were $40 trillion in 2020, up from $23 trillion in 2016 and on track for $50 trillion by 2025. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. In time, the list of industries to avoid increased to include soft drinks, fast food, and oil and gas, among numerous others. But performance of these initial strategies lagged. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across industries that have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights. At Argus Research, we track ESG progress at specific companies as part of our Management analysis -- one of the six points in our proprietary Six-Point System for fundamental research. In addition to reviewing and measuring the ESG proclamations from companies under coverage, we partner with an ESG research firm, JUST Capital, and leverage its analysis and insights. JUST Capital's mission is to drive measurable corporate change to create a stakeholder-centric form of capitalism that reflects the priorities of the American public. JUST utilizes a combination of data-driven research and strategic engagement in an attempt to shift norms and practices in corporate America and the financial markets. JUST ESG Custom Ratings rank stocks in the Russell 1000 on criteria using a scale of 1-100. Drawing on the JUST Capital rankings, we have compiled focused lists of companies followed by Argus Research that are in position to have a "sustainable impact" on the environment, workplace, community, and marketplace. These firms have exemplary records of delivering on the bottom line, and also in improving the environment, contributing to community relations, and showing respect for their employees. We also have a theme model portfolio based in part on ESG criteria. To build the Argus U.S. ESG Theme Model Portfolio, we apply financial concepts such as industry diversification, income generation, risk reduction, and growth at a reasonable price to our various lists. In addition, all stocks must be on the Argus BUY list. For more on JUST Capital's criteria, please visit the JUST Capital website, www.justcapital.com. For more information on the Argus companies, please see our Analyst Reports at www.argusresearch.com. Here are some of the stocks that are currently in the Argus U.S. ESG Theme Model Portfolio.

After a catch-up April for defensive and cyclical stocks, growth sectors soared on spiking AI interest in May and for the most part carried that momentum across June. As of the end of the first half of 2023, Technology was up 40% year-to-date, Communication Services 35%, and Consumer Discretionary 31%. Within growth sectors, investment interest has been concentrated in relatively few names. The market leaders in 2023 include Nvidia (up 180%-plus) and Meta (up 100%-plus); Broadcom, Amazon, and Alphabet (all up 45%-plus); and Microsoft (up 40%). All are actively tied to the development and monetization of generative AI. Note that this concentration can contribute to the fragility of sector gains if investors start taking profits in year-to-date winners. Beyond the big three, the best sectors at midyear are Industrials (up 8%) and Materials (up 6%). In a positive sign for cyclical stocks, both meaningfully outperformed the broad market and even the three sector leaders in June. Meanwhile, four sectors are negative year-to-date: Energy, Utilities, Healthcare, and Financial Services. That is one less than at the end of May, when Consumer Staples was also negative. Another sector, Real Estate, has moved from breakeven to up 2%. Although many of last year's winners have been left behind by AI mania, the sector map showed better balance in May and June. If the market sustains strength and builds on its year-to-date gains in 2023, we would like to see a more broad-based advance from a sector perspective.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

The major indices were mixed on Thursday morning amid continued debt ceiling uncertainty, though a stellar report from Nvidia lifted the Tech sector, which was up nearly 4%. Nvidia shares jumped 27% after the chipmaker reported strong fiscal 1Q results and issued much higher-than-expected sales guidance for the second quarter. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.6%. Crude oil fell $2 to $72 per barrel while gold fell $18 to $1946 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as investors weighed new inflation, employment, and housing market data. Producer prices rose more than expected, raising concerns about continued aggressive rate hikes, while weak housing starts and building permits showed the impact of high mortgage rates. Meanwhile, weekly unemployment claims pointed to a still strong labor market. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 194,000 for the week ended February 11, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The Dow fell 1.26%, the S&P 1.38%, and the Nasdaq 1.78%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1848 per ounce.

At the end of 2021, the market was cruising toward a new year with a nearly 30% total return. Not only were all sectors positive in 2021, no sector was up less than 17%. Things could not have been more different in 2022, with eight of 11 sectors down and the growth leaders of prior years on the bottom of the leader board. Although the Energy sector saw its gain whittled in a rough December, Energy was still far and away the winner for 2022 -- with a 59% gain. Two of the most defensive sectors (Utilities and Consumer Staples) were just above break-even for the year. In the middle of the pack were Industrials, Basic Materials, Healthcare, and Financial Services, with declines ranging from mid-single to low-double-digit percentages. The worst-performing sector was Communication Services (down 40%), where social-media companies are in turmoil and traditional telco service providers are locked in a 5G price war. With Amazon included, Consumer Discretionary was not far behind with a 38% decline. Technology, the clear five-year winner from 2017 through 2021, was down 29% as of the end of December. After a double-digit percentage decline for stocks in 2022, Argus is modeling more-normal returns in 2023, meaning S&P 500 appreciation in high-single-digit to low-double-digit percentages. A normally advancing market usually is led by growth sectors, but investors have become used to buying cyclical, defensive, interest-rate-sensitive, and inflation-beneficiary stocks. If the market does move higher in 2023, any advance from a sector perspective could be broad-based.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning as investors weighed new employment and manufacturing data, and awaited the release of the Fed's latest meeting minutes this afternoon. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 to 240,000 for the week ended November 19, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 225,000. Capital goods orders were stronger than expected. The Commerce Department said that orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.7% in October after a 0.8% decline in September. The consensus forecast had called for flat orders last month. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil fell sharply to $78 per barrel, while gold traded near $1744 per ounce.

Through the end of the third quarter, a few sectors were joining Energy in the positive column -- or at least holding near break-even for 2022. Energy is still positive for the year, but all 10 other sectors are now down for 2022. The last holdouts, Utilities and Staples, were down 9% and 14%, respectively, as of the end of the third quarter. Staples is now one of nine sectors (out of 11 total) down in double digits for the year. The worst-performing sector year to date is Communication Services, where social media companies are in turmoil and traditional telco service providers are locked in a 5G price war. Technology, the clear five-year winner from 2017 through 2021, was down 32% as of September end; and Discretionary is down a rounded 30%. Real Estate, Materials, Industrials, and Financial Services are down 20% to 29%. Stock investors have had nowhere to hide in 2022. Did things look any different in 3Q22? The depressing answer is no, with one exception. Communication Services and Technology were the worst performers, down 17% and 8%, respectively, in 3Q22. The other perennial growth sector, however, fared differently: Consumer Discretionary actually inched higher in 3Q. Despite the gloom, consumers continue to spend, reflecting their fully-employed status and rising wages. The fourth quarter is historically the best-performance quarter for stocks. Depression among investors runs deep, and few are counting on a bounce-back. A bottom in sentiment may be among the necessary ingredients for a recovery.

After two weeks of neutral-to-negative insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research, sentiment indicators this week are uniform with a positive bias. "Uniform" is an important word in this statement, as insiders at companies that list on the Nasdaq had recently been noticeably more cautious than other insiders. The neutral range for the proprietary sell/buy ratios from Vickers is between 2.00 to 2.50. Reading below 2.00 are bullish and readings above 2.50 are bearish. This week, Vickers' NYSE/ASE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 1.92. That same reading is 1.95 on the NYSE, 2.01 on the Nasdaq, and the aforementioned all add up to a Total reading of 1.98. Some 1260 insider transactions met the criteria for inclusion in Vickers' Weekly Insider Report. Of those, only a small number were recorded last Friday as the DJIA fell by more than 1000 points while Fed Chairman Powell spoke at Jackson Hole. Filings this week will offer a much-better view of how insiders feel about that big one-day drop.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports, including strong results from Uber. The ride-hailing service reported better-than-expected revenue and its first quarter of positive free cash flow, sending the shares up 17%. On the negative side, Caterpillar shares fell more than 3% after the company posted mixed results and warned of lower construction equipment sales in China. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $95 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1795 per ounce.

Reading Tea Leaves on the Labor Market |Jobs Friday

Sector breadth was narrow in 1Q22, as only two of the 11 sectors finished in the black (Energy and Utilities). Energy extended leadership that began in 2021, when the sector was the top performer after lagging the prior three years. The upward spike in oil prices, driven most recently by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, lifted Energy sector earnings and valuations. The Utility sector is a bit more of a surprise, as it has lagged the past two years and seemingly would be under pressure as interest rates rise. Going back to Ukraine, however, most of the operations of Utility sector companies are domestic, and thus the group may be less exposed to geopolitical factors. The long-time market-leading groups, Information Technology and Communication Services, led the market lower in 1Q22, declining 8.8% and 11.3%, respectively. This turnaround in sector performance hints at a shift in the market toward value investing and away from growth. Our Sector Over-Weights reflect a blend of growth and value, and include Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, Financial Services, and Materials. Our Under-Weights include Communication Services and Consumer Staples.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial average was down 43 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 was up a hair, at 0.1%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.6%. Year-to-date, the numbers are still red with the Dow down 4.2% and the S&P 500 off 4.6%. The Nasdaq Composite remains the laggard, now down 8.8%. On Friday, the Dow gained 140 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both gained 0.3%.

This edition features Kogan shares at a bargain, how patience could pay off with Tyler Technologies, Hoshizaki's brewing growth targets, and Ecolab, British American Tobacco, and 3M.

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs (ATHs) set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the '500' fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.

We recently raised our rating on the Basic Materials sector to Over-Weight. Despite challenges presented by the Delta variant and the tenacity of COVID-19, the global economy continues to reopen, spurring demand for goods and underscoring scarcity across the supply chain. In this environment, we look for demand for commodities to remain robust and pricing to remain strong. The sector accounts for 2.5% of the S&P 500, and includes industries such as chemicals, paper, metals and mining. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 2% to 4%. We think investors should consider allocating 3% of their diversified portfolios to stocks in this sector. The sector is underperforming thus far in 2021, with a gain of 17.7%. It outperformed in 2020, with a gain of 18.1%, and underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 21.9%. Here is how we use our analysts' Materials sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft, and awaited the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this afternoon. Investors will be closely scrutinizing Mr. Powell's comments regarding the state of the economy, the impact of the Delta variant, and the timing of any reduction in the central bank's bond buying program. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1797 per ounce.

Many investors are beginning to focus their investment funds on companies that follow sustainable business practices and/or are addressing global impact issues. At Argus, we are a portfolio advisor to a Unit Investment Trust that is built around ESG criteria. We also have launched a separately managed account based on ESG and Impact investing principles. Two times a year, we screen our Universe of Coverage to highlight the stocks that score highest on ESG criteria. We note that Impact Investing addresses issues such as climate change, hunger, poverty, shelter, and clean water. Clean water is not only a personal issue; many industries, including oil, gas, semiconductors, chemicals, electric utilities, food products, beverages and metals and mining, are heavily reliant on clean water. According to the 2030 Water Resources Group, by 2030 "demand for water will be 40 percent higher than it is today, and more than 50 percent higher in the most rapidly developing countries. Historic rates of supply expansion and efficiency improvement will close only a fraction of this gap. Unless local, national and global communities come together and dramatically improve the way we envision and manage water, there will be many more hungry villages and degraded environments-and economic development itself will be put at risk in many countries." The companies in our list this week are working on systems and providing products to reduce global and domestic water risks.

First-Quarter Review and Full-Year 2021 Outlook

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January 2020, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. But the performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, prior to the pandemic, had expanded to record levels. And now, the U.S. Healthcare industry is mobilizing to improve COVID-19 testing, treatments and vaccines. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but nearly $22 trillion at the end of 2019. That's growth of 22-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than 3-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven in large part by innovation. In addition, the value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2020 was approximately $32 trillion, representing 41% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 25% of global GDP. The current low level of interest rates (the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield is 1.1%) and the relatively high level of the dollar both attest to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

Stocks fell on Monday morning on valuation concerns, led by a 2% decline in the Tech sector, though Energy stocks rose amid rising oil prices. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that she would judge the success of the government's planned $1.9 trillion stimulus program on its ability to restore pre-pandemic levels of unemployment, and noted that the resulting increase in debt would be manageable given current low interest rates. The Dow was flat, the S&P fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.7%. Crude oil traded near $61 per barrel, while gold rose $32 to $1810 per ounce.

ARGUS ANALYSTS' TOP PICKS FOR 2021

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday morning amid rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe and mixed corporate earnings. MasterCard shares fell 7% after the company posted 3Q earnings that were down from the prior year and below the consensus estimate, reflecting the slowdown in travel spending. UPS shares also fell sharply despite better-than-expected third-quarter results Amid the selloff, GE posted a surprise 3Q profit and positive free cash flow, sending the shares up nearly 8%. The Dow fell 3.2%, the S&P 3.1%, and the Nasdaq 3.2%. Crude oil traded near $37 per barrel, while gold fell $34 to $1878 per ounce.

The stock market closed on October 9 with a winning session, ending its best week in three months. With a close at 3,477, the S&P 500 pulled within 3% of its all-time high of 3,588 from 9/2/20, and the index moved higher still on October 12. The September sell-off -- which resulted in a near-correction (defined as down 10%) for the broad market and full corrections for leading Technology names -- cleared away some (only some) of the excessive optimism. It also partly (only partly) restored some sector balance; two of the best sectors in 4Q20-to-date have been out of favor all year.