In this edition, online commerce set for acceleration, consolidation; the market may be missing changes afoot at Veolia; an overview of the moat ratings for big biotech firms; and Kraft Heinz, Tyson Foods, and Nutrien.

May Bounce-Back: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Monday Tee Up: Back to Inflation

Stocks rose on Thursday morning as investors awaited the November employment report on Friday. Weekly unemployment claims were largely in line with expectations. The Labor Department said that first-time claims rose by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended December 2, slightly below the Reuters consensus forecast of 222,000. Continuing claims fell by 64,000 to 1.861 million. Meanwhile, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said that U.S. employers announced 45,510 layoffs in November, up 24% from October but down 41% from November 2022. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil rose 1% to $70 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $2043 per ounce.

As of the close on September 11, the S&P 500 (SPX), the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) had all regained their 50-day averages. All three lost the 50-day in mid-August and again last week, so it is encouraging that these major indices are putting up a stand around the key average. At the same time, the three majors remain above their August lows and the pullback has turned into a sideways battle, with a lower high and a higher low in place.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Earnings, Employment, Economy: Three Es Keeping Recession at Bay

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

In this edition, CRE Service Firms' Odds Upbeat Despite Downturn, Hess' Huge Valuation Premium Unjustified, Smucker Moat Elusive; and Capri Holdings, International Flavors & Fragrances, and Tyson Foods.

Earnings Fading, but Investors Don't Seem to Care

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks were mostly lower on Thursday as investors weighed new inflation and employment data, along with a PMI index that showed a decline in manufacturing activity - the first since May 2020. The core PCE price index for October showed inflation slowing from both the prior month and the prior year, while first-time jobless claims were lower than expected. The Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 16,000 to 225,000 for the week ended November 26, below the consensus of 235,000. On Friday morning, investors will be focused on the Labor Department's November employment report. The current consensus calls for the addition of 200,000 payroll jobs, down from 261,000 in October, and a slightly higher unemployment rate of 3.8%. The Dow fell 0.56%, the S&P fell 0.09%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.13%. Crude oil rose 1% to more than $81 per barrel, while gold jumped $57 to $1817 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Last week, after our review of insider-trading data from Vickers Stock Research, we noted that corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners were 'stepping up to the plate once again' and wondered if their actions 'indicated that a bottom is near.' While one week has not a trend made, the results so far are not bad.

In late May, we noted that the proprietary sell/buy ratios from Vickers Stock Research were becoming increasingly bullish after a very difficult start for stocks in 2022. We made comparisons to past such events, concluding that history suggested stock prices might well rise significantly over the next three months. Major indices moved still lower over the next few weeks, while Vickers' sell/buy ratios became increasingly bullish. Stocks seemingly bottomed (we hope) in mid-June.

The rebound in consumer confidence stalled as inflation surged, COVID continued, Russia invaded Ukraine, and interest rates headed higher. Prior to the pandemic, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was near cycle highs at 133 in February 2020, but then plunged to 92.6 in May 2020 and then to 84.8 in August 2020. As COVID cases moderated in the summer of 2021, the index climbed back up to 125. But it never fully recovered -- as first the Delta variant and then the Omicron variant increased daily case numbers. Then inflation rose and the invasion occurred. The latest reading, for May 2022, was 106.4, down from 108.6 in April. University of Michigan data is even gloomier, with current readings of 65.2 and near 40-year lows. It is worth reviewing the experience during the financial crisis in 2007-2009. Back in 2007, confidence peaked at 112 in November, before falling sharply and consistently over the next year to a low of 25 in February 2009 (as the bear market was bottoming). The index did not reclaim prior highs for another eight years. We doubt the recovery this time will take as long, as unemployment is low and household balance sheets are flush. From an investment standpoint, we have found that the bottom of the consumer confidence cycle -- when everybody has given up on a recovery -- has been a good time to buy stocks. In other words, confidence is often a contrarian indicator.

Stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Friday morning as investors continued to focus on inflation, rate hikes, and prospects for recession. Manufacturing data was weaker than expected. The Federal Reserve said that production at U.S. factories fell 0.1% in May after rising 0.8% in April. The consensus called for modest growth of 0.3%. Including mines and utilities, overall industrial production rose 0.2%, down from 1.4% growth a month earlier. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%. Crude oil fell sharply to $111 per barrel, while gold traded near $1841 per ounce.

Stocks gave up early gains on Tuesday morning amid continued concerns about inflation, Fed rate hikes, and lackluster corporate earnings. The slide followed Monday's massive selloff, which sent the S&P below 4,000 for the first time since March 2021. Peloton shares dropped more than 15% after the fitness equipment maker posted a wider-than-expected fiscal 3Q loss, offered disappointing 4Q revenue guidance, and said that it was 'thinly capitalized.' The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $101 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1845 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Linde Plc (LIN); Sysco Corp. (SYY); Target Corp (TGT); Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX) and the Focus List deletions are DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD); Zoetis Inc (ZTS); Lululemon Athletica inc. (LULU); Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks plunged on Thursday on concerns about soaring inflation and the impact of aggressive Fed rate hikes. The Labor Department reported that its consumer price index rose at a 7.5% annualized rate in January, up from 7.0% in December and the highest reading in 40 years. Employment data was mixed. First-time jobless claims fell to 223,000 for the week ended February 5, down from 239,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 230,000. Continuing claims were flat with the prior week at 1.621 million and slightly above consensus. The Dow fell 1.47%, the S&P 1.81%, and the Nasdaq 2.10%. Crude oil traded near $90 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1830 per ounce.

The rebound in consumer confidence has stalled as inflation has surged and new variants of the coronavirus have emerged. Prior to COVID-19, the index was near cycle highs at 133 in February 2020 but then plunged to 92.6 in May 2020 and then to 84.8 in August 2020. As COVID cases moderated in the summer of 2021, the index climbed back up to 125. But it never fully recovered as first the Delta variant and now the Omicron variant have increased daily case numbers. The latest reading, for November, was 109.5. What's next for the consumer? Well, it is worth reviewing the experience during the financial crisis, in 2007-2009. Back in 2007, confidence peaked at 112 in November, before falling sharply and consistently over the next year to a low of 25 in February 2009, as the bear market was bottoming. The index did not reclaim prior highs for another eight years. This time around, the recovery has been quicker, though the durability of the consumer turnaround will depend on continued improvements in health, the effectiveness of government stimulus programs, and any post-pandemic behavioral changes from the population. From an investment standpoint, we have found that the bottom of the consumer confidence cycle -- when everybody has given up on a recovery -- has been a good time to buy. In other words, consumer confidence is often a contrarian indicator.

Stocks closed a losing week on November 12 with modest strength. Unlike the prior week, when jobs data jazzed the market, stocks were hit by concerning CPI data that showed consumer prices rising year-over-year at the fastest clip since the 1990s.

Consumer confidence trends have turned negative as the Delta variant has spread. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to a six-month low in August. The index was 133 in February 2020 but plunged to 92.6 in May and to 84.8 in August. As the nation moved toward a higher vaccination rate, the index stood at 129 in July 2021 but fell to 113.8 in August as COVID cases surged. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan reported that its Consumer Sentiment Index was 70.3 in August 2021, down from an 85.5 reading in June. It's worth looking at the experience during the financial crisis in 2007-2009. In 2007, confidence peaked at 112 in November before falling consistently over the next year to a low of 25 in February 2009, as the bear market was bottoming. The index did not reclaim prior highs for another eight years. Currently, the recovery has been quicker, though the durability of the consumer turnaround will depend on improvements in health, the effectiveness of government stimulus, and behavioral changes from the population post-pandemic. From an investment standpoint, we have found that the bottom of the confidence cycle -- when everybody has given up -- has been a good time to buy stocks. In other words, confidence is often a contrarian indicator.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN); Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR); Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM); Cloudflare Inc (NET) and the Focus List deletions are Sanmina Corp (SANM); EBay Inc. (EBAY); Coca-Cola Co (KO); Pinterest Inc (PINS).

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following new weekly employment data and a producer price report that again pointed to high inflation. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 375,000 for the week ended August 7, down from 387,000 a week earlier and in line with the consensus forecast. On the earnings front, eBay shares fell after the company posted mixed 2Q results and offered disappointing third-quarter sales guidance. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose to $69 per barrel, while gold traded near $1749 per ounce.

The stock market was slammed by not one, but two concerning inflation data points in the trading week ending May 14. The consumer price index for April jumped by 0.8% month-over-month and by 4.2% year-over-year. The producer price index was even more concerning, rising a lesser 0.6% month-over-month but a higher 6.2% year-over-year.

With earnings season drawing to a close, the volume of weekly insider transactions is returning to normal. As such, there is increased relevance in the signals being thrown off by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners. And those signals are little changed from what we've seen over the past several weeks. Insider sentiment remains broadly cautious, with the caution led by insiders at companies that list on the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks rose strongly on Tuesday morning amid continued vaccine optimism as Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech applied for emergency EU approval of their coronavirus vaccines. The European Medicines Agency said that it would complete its review of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine by December 29 and the Moderna vaccine by January 12. On the economic front, manufacturing activity slowed in Europe in November, based on IHS Markit's PMI, but strengthened in China. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in November - the strongest reading since November 2010 - from 53.6 in October. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $45 per barrel, while gold rose $35 to $1816 per ounce.